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Michael Wade et al: Orchestrating Transformation

About the book

Oh boy! This is the BIG book of transformation. After this there is no need to read any other books about digital transformation. Unless Wade et al. will write something new about digital transformation.

The companies that have not already been subject to serious digital competition will benefit from this book. The companies that would most benefit from learnings of the book are B2B and engineering companies or public organization.

The book is written to business leaders, executives and Chief Digital Officers. This is your book if you want to avoid “the danger of becoming a corporate irrelevance”. Do not be a “Queen of PowerPoint.” Become the master of digital transformation.

“When you’re finished changing, you’re finished.” (Ben Franklin)

What are the key learnings?

“Transformation is not an event; it’s an essential and perpetual task of leadership.”

The key learnings are

–      “A second wave of disruption is upon us. This wave is focused not only on digitizing products and services, but also on business models, processes, and value chains“.

–      Now it’s your turn. “Companies that were easy targets for digitalization – media, financial and telco’s, have already gone through the digital disruption.”

–      The third wave is around the corner. Watch out technologies such as RPA, ML and AI.

“Orchestrating Transformation is less about what the best companies do better than anyone else. Instead, it’s largely about what everyone gets consistently wrong—and how to fix it. This book proceeds from a simple premise: most companies are not successful in digital business transformation.”

Digital business transformation involves much more than technology.

Definition of Digital Business Transformation is “organizational change through the use of digital technologies and business models to improve performance.”

–      “The objective of digital business transformation is to improve business performance.

–      Digital business transformation is based on a digital foundation.

–      Digital business transformation requires organizational change – change that includes processes, people, and strategy.”

Orchestration

“The concept of orchestration to contend with the connected nature of change. By embracing the networked nature of organizations, and the challenge of changing what is highly connected, we reframe what the execution of a digital business transformation program means (continuous and holistic) and increase the chances that it will ultimately succeed.”

Transformation dilemma

“We call this the “transformation dilemma” of today’s incumbents. Organizational characteristics of today’s market incumbents

–      scale,

–      interdependence,

–      dynamism.

“Why the “entanglement” of these characteristics makes it nearly impossible to achieve success in digital business transformation using traditional change methods.”

“Today’s incumbents are missing the growth hacking factor, because “the vast majority of organizational change efforts fail. Estimates vary, but failure rates range from 60 to 80 percent and don’t seem to improve over time.”

“Digital transformations fail so frequently that we’ve met many executives who are hostile to the very term “digital,” or who have made any phrases containing “transformation” verboten because of the word’s perceived connotations of hype, frustration, and fiasco.”

Why? Many company leaders don’t understand the problem they face. “Simply put – things change a lot:

–      Scale. Companies are awash in huge volumes of “things that need to be managed”

–      Interdependence. The things that need to be managed are interrelated, and the effects from any one action are felt throughout the organization in ways that aren’t easy to predict.

–      Dynamism. The things that need to be managed, and the environments (market, regulatory, etc.) in which they operate, are constantly evolving. The need to do things differently is a constant competitive reality.”

Cult of synergy

“Often, companies respond to interdependence by separating things into different units. This approach, known as “departmentalization,” gives a certain team the authority to establish (“own”) a standard for how something is done. At first glance, the approach makes sense as an antidote for complexity. However, it also contributes to the balkanization of companies (i.e., silos), undermining the biggest value of interdependence: synergy.

“A lack of synergy is a major contributing factor in why most transformation programs fail to deliver their expected returns.”

Tales on unexpected

–      Gray Wolf Effect. “One example involves the return of the gray wolf to Yellowstone National Park. 7 By 1926, all gray wolves, the natural “apex predator” in Yellowstone, had been exterminated. In the mid-1990s, gray wolves were reintroduced into the park, and scientists soon observed how their predatory habits affected the entire food chain and overall biodiversity of the region. The reintroduced gray wolves killed and ate the park’s elk population. In turn, the reduced number of grazing elk allowed for the growth of more vegetation. This increase in plant life and its root systems then increased the stability of riverbanks and, ultimately, changed the paths followed by the park’s rivers. (To ecologists, this phenomenon is known as a “trophic cascade”).”

–      Cobra Effect. ”This phenomenon is sometimes referred to as the Cobra Effect. The term originated in the British Raj in 19 th century India. The British government, concerned about the proliferation of venomous cobras in Delhi, offered a bounty to citizens who killed the snakes. Unfortunately, local residents reacted to this incentive by modifying their behavior in an unanticipated way: they began breeding cobras that could be killed for money. When the government realized that citizens were gaming the system, they shut down the bounty program. This prompted the citizens to free their now-worthless snakes, significantly increasing the cobra population.”

–      Black Swan Effect of course.

Four types of change

1.   Plain Old Change.

a.   “This is functionally autonomous, incremental change. The goal of change is straightforward, and the resources needed are limited and well-defined within a particular functional area or group. For example, if the advertising department opts to shift investment in newspaper and television media to online ads, that’s their purview. It doesn’t significantly impact, and isn’t contingent upon, other parts of the company. This type of change represents most of the management effort focused on implementing changes. It’s pretty run-of-the-mill and doesn’t involve extensive cross-functional considerations. It also doesn’t require changes to a company’s overarching strategy or business model.”

2.   Blanket Adjustments.

a.   “This is highly entangled, incremental change. Here, a company makes a tweak or calibration—introducing new enterprise-wide hiring rules or a global expense management system—that affects many different stakeholders in all parts of the organization. These adjustments frequently collide with highly entangled structures and, as many of us have experienced, can be challenging to implement. Nonetheless, the extent of change isn’t large. There’s no essential change to the kinds of value the company creates for customers, how it makes money, or its overall competitive position.”

3.   Smart X.

a.   “This is functionally autonomous, major change. The changes are big, but they don’t have a company-wide focus. When you hear about projects like “smart supply chain” or “smart real estate,” these are examples of Smart X change. This doesn’t mean, however, that Smart X change is a breeze to achieve. Although the change may be limited to a single function, it can be ambitious in scope. A “smart factory,” for example, could involve a complete revolution in how manufacturing processes are performed. This certainly qualifies as “major change.”

4.   Digital Business Transformation.

a.   ”This is highly entangled, major change. This type of change is the focus of the DBT Center in general and this book in particular. Recalling our earlier definition of digital business transformation as “organizational change through the use of digital technologies and business models to improve performance,” we can see that this type of change is considerably different from the others. It combines high levels of scale, interdependence, and dynamism with the need to make fundamental changes to the entire organization in the service of a new strategic direction. It means making changes to business models and customer value creation to address disruptive competition. It may also involve value creation with third parties (i.e., through platforms).”

Guiding objectives

“What’s more, too many transformations are disconnected from:

–      Customer value creation,

–      Business models,  

–      Strategies of the company.”

“We refer to these three elements together as guiding objectives. Guiding objectives are a set of clearly-articulated aims that serve as the point of departure for effective execution of a transformation program. (However, they are not the company’s “digital strategy”; see sidebar.)”

Three common denominators in modus operandi for succeeding in transformation are:

1.   Cost value. Disruptors create value for customers through lower costs or by creating some kind of economic gain.

2.   Experience value. through customer experiences that are faster, more convenient, more personalized, and so forth.

3.   Platform value. By creating connections that did not exist before, such as between a buyer and a seller, or between a teacher and a student.

Smash the paradigm

“In the past, as described in Michael Porter’s classic Competitive Strategy, firms focused on one of two main competitive orientations: cost leadership (what we refer to as “cost value”) and differentiation (what we call “experience value”). 2 Porter’s point is that companies pick one or the other: you can be Walmart (cost value) or you can be Burberry (experience value). But you don’t try to do both at once—doing so would be a recipe for disaster (by the way, there were not platforms as we think of them today back when Porter wrote his book). Companies like Uber, and all of the most disruptive companies, smash this paradigm with their ability to create combinatorial disruption that customers can’t get enough of.”

Case Fujifilm. “Fujifilm recognized the digital threat to its core market in analog cameras and film. As far back as the 1980s, both companies anticipated declining sales of photographic film and paper and launched successful digital camera offerings. By 1999, Fujifilm was the world leader in digital camera sales. By 2003, however, the disruption in digital photography deepened with the introduction of smartphones with built-in multi-megapixel cameras. At Fujifilm, film sales fell off a cliff. They dropped by one-third within a year, and photo labs reported an 80 percent decline in processing jobs for consumers. After decades of growth, Fujifilm’s revenue reached a peak in 1999 at $13.6 billion. Shigetaka Komori, who became CEO in 2003 (he was also named chairman in 2012), had to respond: “At first I thought that color film wouldn’t disappear quickly, but digital stole it all away in an instant.” This is a common sentiment for executives who have the misfortune of encountering value vampires—disruptive competitors who permanently undercut the viability of a market. In 2001, film accounted for two-thirds of Fujifilm profits. By 2017, it was less than 1 percent. Komori and his team restructured the organization, reducing its distribution, research and development, and management costs. Significant job reductions, factory closings, and other cuts helped decrease the company’s cost base by more than $5 billion. Fujifilm diversified and retreated into a few niche markets where value vampires (Apple and the Android-based smartphone makers) had no intention of following: high-end digital imaging machines, enterprise document solutions, and (unexpectedly) cosmetics.

Strategic Response Playbook – Four strategic options

1.   Harvest: Maximizing Returns from a Disrupted Business

2.   Retreat: Strategic Withdrawal

3.   Disrupt: Creating New Customer Value

4.   Occupy: Winning in a Disrupted Space

Harvest

Harvest is a defensive strategy designed to maximize gains from an at-risk or declining business. Harvest strategies frequently begin with “blocking tactics,” drawing on the benefits of incumbent status with customers, partners, regulators, opinion-makers, and providers of capital. These countermeasures are intended to slow the disruption or buy time for an incumbent to come up with a more appropriate response.

Harvest shouldn’t be equated with failure. It’s the natural progression of a mature business confronting commoditization, customer attrition, margin compression, and other unpleasantness arising from digital disruption. Leaders who are clear-sighted enough to accept this are best positioned to steer their organizations through the transition. An example of a global incumbent adopting a Harvest strategy is Avon Products. 4 Founded over 130 years ago in New York, the company uses a direct, social-selling channel: 6 million “Avon Ladies” form an independent salesforce of micro-entrepreneurs who go door-to-door to offer women cosmetics, fragrances, jewelry, and health supplements.

Retreat

“There are two main components to a Retreat strategy.

–      Retreat emphasizes withdrawal into a market niche that serves a small subset of existing customers with specialized needs. Usually, the niche is a market the incumbent has dominated in the past and, in most cases, is an expert at managing for profitability. The niche market often requires a level of experience value that is hard for disruptors to deliver.

–      Market exit is the second component of a Retreat strategy, and choosing the right time to exit is a critical decision. Too early, and you risk leaving money on the table. Too late, and the value has disappeared. Fujifilm sold many of its core assets in film and paper production while they still had value, channeling the proceeds into new business lines.”

Disrupt

“A Disrupt strategy focuses on creating cost value, experience value, and platform value for customers using digital technologies and business models in a new way. Becoming a disruptor requires a mix of deep customer and competitor insights, innovative thinking, strategic experimentation, capability transfer and building, and careful investment. As a result, many incumbents find disruption very difficult. For example Casper and Endy’s success is the result of their rigorous focus on providing value to customers. Buying a mattress through traditional channels can be a painful experience.

Occupy

“While a disruption can be achieved through cost value or experience value or platform value, a successful Occupy strategy normally requires combinatorial disruption. Only by combining all three forms of value can an organization prevail in the disruption battle for any length of time. The main problem with Occupy is that incumbents are often on unfamiliar terrain. Sleep Country Canada…. Far from retrenching, the company is aggressively investing, improving cost controls and inventory levels. <= LeanLeap

Sleep Country Canada is also “disrupting the disruptors,” emulating the market-changing innovations that underpin the value of Casper and Endy’s offers, while continuing to wield its physical stores presence and greater bargaining strengths. It launched an easy-to-deliver mattress-in-a-box called Bloom, 36 allowing it to participate in a fast-growing segment of the market. 37 The company has always offered a 100-day satisfaction guarantee but is benefiting from the market awareness that online competitors’ marketing efforts are creating.”

Establishing Guiding Objectives of a Transformation

“What should we do first in our transformation program?” The answer is: start by establishing guiding objectives.”

“Drawing on our research into digital transformation journeys, we have built a simple tool called “20 Questions” to help organizations prioritize strategic responses.

“Certain strategies in the Strategic Response Playbook are employed more than others:

–      Retreat strategies are less frequent, in part because, as we observed in our earlier book, leaders are reluctant to pursue them (out of fear they will be perceived as signposts of deficient leadership) and because, even though market entry and exit rates are accelerating in the Digital Vortex, “wrapping up” a business is not a daily occurrence for firms.

–      Disrupt strategies are not something companies embark on frequently or lightly. They tend to be radical departures from what the company has done in the past and require a different model for market formation, incubation, and scaling. Most incumbents are not good at Disrupt strategies because they imply being first to market, often with a small subset of early-adopter customers.

–      Harvest. More commonly, big, traditional, prosperous companies concentrate their efforts on Harvest and Occupy. The former means playing defense, and usually involves a lot of cost optimization, streamlining, and specialization. #Lean

–      Occupy. The latter means playing offense, but after a value vacancy and a market disruption have already materialized, allowing the incumbent to be a “fast follower” and compete based on its unique strengths. #Leap”

“Experience value and platform value are the most common value-creation focuses for big companies pursuing a Disrupt strategy. However, any one of the three forms of value can be the basis of Disrupt.”

“In Occupy, incumbents need to deliver all three forms of value to keep customers from migrating to competitors who are similarly targeting the value vacancy—and to secure the continued status of market leader.”

“The three components of guiding objectives—customer value creation, business models, and strategy—cannot be developed sequentially. To frame execution, they must be considered as an integrated whole.”

Case Intuit. “In doing so, Intuit adopted an Occupy strategy: the launch of an advantageously priced TurboTax cloud offer quickly displaced the desktop version of its tax software. 5 Intuit was willing to cannibalize its own product to build a large market share with a cloud-based product that ensured much more loyalty from customers. This prevented a competitor, Microsoft, from capturing a significant portion of the market with its Microsoft Money software. In fact, Microsoft interrupted that offer and stopped supporting it altogether after 2011.

In late 2017, the company began its next strategy refresh cycle. Seeing data analytics, AI, and machine learning as the new disruptive capabilities likely to impact customer experiences, Intuit mobilized over 100 teams to review research on trends and customer feedback. Based on this, Ko and the management team identified eight major macro trends driving massive societal and economic shifts. In response, the company is reallocating $1 billion—roughly one-fourth of its operating expenses—to address these opportunities. Under the leadership of Al Ko, Intuit’s recurring strategy refresh is becoming a repeatable process. Using knowledge and best practices from the past two iterations in 2012 and 2017, his team is codifying them in the company’s operating rhythm. The process of revisiting the strategy and assessing its progress is now fully represented in the company’s one-and three-year planning cycles, and in operating reviews. But Ko insists that regardless of how repeatable the refresh has become, there’s no substitute for revisiting a massive list of trends and opportunities regularly and stress-testing ways to create more value for customers. Intuit provides a compelling example of how transformation is an essential and perpetual task of leadership. Investors seem to like the results of Ko’s “maniacal focus” on strategy refresh, and the execution that has followed. Intuit’s market capitalization has increased by roughly 600 percent since 2010, compared with some 250 percent for the Nasdaq overall.”

The company’s transformation ambition

“Another important concept that is related to, but distinct from, guiding objectives: the company’s transformation ambition. This is simply a statement that outlines the company’s overall change goal. The transformation ambition aggregates the strategic intent of all the guiding objectives that span the company’s divisions or businesses.”

PRISM

“Good transformation ambitions have a few consistent characteristics. They act as a “prism” that focuses and directs the organization’s energies.

Precise – no room for interpretation.

Realistic – all can credibly see the company actually pulling off.

Inclusive – It needs to be relevant to everyone in the company, from top to bottom.

Succinct – It must be something the average employee can easily remember, almost a rallying cry.

Measurable – everyone can define progress in his or her own way.

Case Cisco. “The transformation ambition of 40/40/2020 was not a commitment to Wall Street, but rather a kind of unofficial, universally understood “north star” for the company. was a shorthand leaders used to describe a future standing in which the company would garner 40 percent of its revenue from recurring (subscription-based) sources and 40 percent from software by the year 2020 (the company’s 2021 fiscal year).”

“A powerful faction among the executive team, which must include the CEO and the board, is needed to overcome resistance to change. A CEO and board, backed by cooperative leaders, must establish an unambiguous stance supporting the transformation ambition.”

“Metrics also play an important role in the ongoing management of a transformation program, quantifying and tracking progress (or the lack thereof) against guiding objectives and the transformation ambition. One CDO told us, “We invest heavily in measurement to drive accountability. Data means there is nowhere to hide. If you’re not on side, there won’t be a sliver of daylight.”

The Transformation Orchestra

Silos are the enemy of transformation. Especially with digital transformation where the ownership is not clear. The Transformation Orchestra is:

Go-to-Market Section

1)   Offerings: The products and services your company sells.  

2)   Channels: How products and services reach customers (i.e., route to market).

Engagement Section

3)   Customer Engagement: How your company engages with its customers.

4)   Partner Engagement: How your company engages with its partner ecosystem.

5)   Workforce Engagement: How your company engages with its employees and contract staff.

Organization Section

6)   Org Structure: The structure of business units, teams, reporting lines, and profit and loss centers (P&Ls).

7)   Incentives: How workers are compensated and rewarded for their performance and behavior.

8)   Culture: The values, attitudes, beliefs, and habits of the company.

Demonstrating that the focus should be on eight elements (not three, not 40) is liberating.

Orchestration Competencies

What do you need to bridge guiding objectives and execution?

1. Customer journey mapping is a needed competency.

800!!!!!! “Customer journey mapping means achieving a detailed understanding of customers’ experiences from the beginning to the end of their interactions with an organization. The proliferation of digital channels is changing how companies approach this mapping. Consider today’s typical multichannel retailer. Shopper interactions once comprised a small handful of possible journeys. But taking into account new channels, including mobile, online, wearables, and in-home devices (e.g., Amazon Echo), we’ve calculated that today’s shoppers have more than 800 unique variations of possible shopping journeys.”

Case Nespresso journey. “Lamblard suggested that e-commerce and user experience (UX) will increasingly focus on removing friction points across the customer journey. “The future of UX is no UX,” he said, and “e-commerce checkouts will vanish.” To accomplish this omnichannel reality, Nespresso aims to eliminate all unnecessary steps from the customer journey by leveraging data and personalization at scale. (For example, when future customers shop in a boutique, they will simply choose their coffee and then leave.) Examples of digital capabilities that may facilitate this seamless journey include subscription ordering models, AI, automation, and peer-to-peer commerce. Nespresso has motivated its channels to work together by harmonizing cross-channel employee incentives. (This makes the company not only a prime example of customer journey mapping, but of orchestration that combines multiple “instruments”.)”

2. Business model design is a complementary competency.

“Key to business model reinvention is a keen understanding of customers’ expectations and what they’ll pay for. Management consulting skills in strategy and business modeling (e.g., the Business Model Canvas) are important here, as is an understanding of customer value creation. How are other firms—especially disruptive competitors—creating cost value, experience value, and/or platform value for customers?”

“Competitive intelligence also plays a big role in understanding how the market is evolving.”

“The creation of a center of excellence around design thinking and user experience has definitely been a critical construct for us to evolve and develop.”

“Understand THE state of the ORGANIZATION.”

3. Business architecture is a competency that helps orchestrators to mobilize organizational resources and assemble transformation networks.

4. Capability assessment, including the availability and readiness of resources.

Build Synergy

Companies undergoing large-scale digital transformation are often places of confusion. A lack of both a clear vision and a shared narrative to describe the company’s transformation efforts frequently prevents people from taking decisive action. For these reasons,

5. Communications and training is a key orchestration competency.

6. Incubation

Orchestrators should also provide (6) incubation and scaling platforms . Platforms are great for creating market change, and they are critical in driving organizational change as well. They are particularly useful in generating synergies and as scaling engines.

7. Internal venture funding focused on innovation and transformation.

“No one listens to a cost center.”

“You’ve got to have financial means to be an attractive business partner.” For a midsized company, this funding might run to a few million dollars. For a large global incumbent, it could be in the tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars. These funds should be ring-fenced for efforts that promote cross-functional outcomes.”

8. Agile

Finally, when it comes to accelerating a transformation program, practitioners must be adept at (8) Agile ways of working. Agile plays a core role in how transformation programs in general—and transformation networks in particular—run.

Case ING. “Employees were asked to reapply for positions structured according to an Agile approach. ING divided the workforce into 350 “squads,” each with a maximum of nine employees. Each squad owned a specific customer-focused business objective, and included workers from multiple disciplines, such as IT development, product management, marketing, and distribution. The squads functioned as “self-organizing” units, each setting its own direction, tasks, prioritization, and strategy for accomplishing its goals. The squads were coordinated using a formal approach, including “chapters” to connect members of the same discipline across different squads, and “tribes,” which were groups of squads working on related missions. Agile coaches were embedded in the squads and tribes to facilitate the process and drive the cultural change needed to succeed in this new way of working.”

Organizing for Orchestration

“Although organizations are fairly evenly divided about whether “digital” should be a centralized or a distributed responsibility, our research shows that when it comes to managing digital transformation, 84 percent of organizations have established a dedicated or specialized group. For almost half of companies, digital is integral to every manager’s job. However, this is not true for transformation, where more than eight in 10 companies recognize that transformation can’t be added to managers’ day-to-day activities, but instead must be aggressively driven in a targeted way.”

“Leaders would do well to bear in mind this important distinction, which we’ve stressed throughout: digital and transformation are not the same thing.”

A centralized transformation group can quickly become its own silo.

“By the same token, a diffused model can also slow down execution. Things can get lost in translation. Wheels can get reinvented.”

“In many large and midsized organizations, coordinati grow like mushrooms as teams (separately) invest in program management roles that get tied up ensuring that other groups have visibility into their work, and that they, in turn, understand how the work of other groups pertains to their own. Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt referred to these workers as “glue people”—employees “who sit between functions and help either side but don’t themselves add a lot of value.” Glue is helpful in binding things together, but unhelpful when it makes things immovable.”

“Multiple executives are “responsible for overseeing digital transformation” in the company, even though a dedicated transformation group exists. In fact, an average of 3.3 different leaders.”

To CDO or to not CDO?

The chief digital officer role has emerged as one of several key leadership roles in digital business transformation. Three main types of CDOs and their share are:

1)   The Customer Experience Maven (25 %)

2)   The Artist Formerly Known as the CIO (66 %)

3)   The Agitator (10 %)

The Customer Experience Maven.

The first type of CDO is focused predominantly in the areas of marketing, communications, e-commerce, customer engagement, and product development. Many of these CDOs come from a chief marketing officer role or from the advertising and creative industries. This CDO frequently views digital primarily as a way to position and strengthen the company’s brand and to interact with customers. A key focus may be adding digital capabilities to existing products (e.g., placing a sensor on a refrigerator, putting a computer screen in a car).   

The Artist Formerly Known as the CIO.

The second type of CDO drives digital primarily from an IT perspective, much as the chief information officer has done in years past. Often, there is little change in the charter of the role, meaning the executive has oversight of the company’s IT but gets a new business card. Sometimes, this is very superficial. The “D” is viewed as trendier than the “I,” which, fairly or unfairly, carries certain baggage in terms of perceived value and skills. Indeed, CIOs as a profession have experienced a “crisis of relevance” in recent years, as business executives consistently cite lack of strategic alignment and innovation as challenges they see in IT leadership. In some circles, there is a belief that if the company hires a CDO, it’s because the CIO has not done his or her job. CDOs are basically CIOs with a title change or a modest enlargement of their responsibilities.

The Agitator.

The third type of CDO is hired not just as a “digital” leader, but to be a gadfly—to challenge received wisdoms and entrenched approaches—and in some cases, as one executive put it, to “blow up the business model” of the company. Many of these CDOs come from startup or management consulting backgrounds. Here, the focus is on major changes to firm strategy and helping the company make money in new ways, usually in response to disruptive competition and/or changing customer demands. This often happens when executive leadership wants to pursue offensive strategies like Disrupt or Occupy.  

The New CTO: Chief Transformation Officer

“This position should be invested with an orchestration charter and responsibility for how the transformation program is executed. The CTO should be responsible for mobilizing organizational resources and enabling their connections. He or she should act as the company’s synergy creator. In the words of one practitioner, “Every action I take can’t just knock over the next domino. It has to knock over 10 or 12 dominoes.” Ideally, the CTO will report to the CEO.”

“Every manager should understand digital and seek to apply it to his or her area of responsibility. But transformation should be driven by a single leader—the chief transformation officer.”

“One key lesson we’ve learned is: let leaders lead. Allow the people who’ve made your company successful to do what they do. Of course, if they’re not performing or are actively trying to undermine the leadership consensus (constantly revisiting and challenging the transformation ambition, for example), they should be replaced. But leaders also have influence and expertise. The company needs their buy-in and engagement for major changes to work.”

“Most organizations and their leadership structures are geared to operate the business, not transform it. Most leadership teams are not there to be change agents, but to deliver results. These results tend to be framed in the here and now—meeting shareholder expectations or addressing the urgent demands of today’s customer.”

“Don’t expect everyone to be orchestrators of cross-functional outcomes. Make that someone’s full-time job—someone who can transcend silos, unstick log jams, and focus outside the immensely difficult task facing all other leaders in the company: operating the mainstream business efficiently and effectively.”

 “If someone’s not complaining about you, you’re not being innovative enough.” (CDO Rob Roy / Sprint)

How should we change according to the book?

“Action: Make the chief transformation officer responsible for orchestrating the company’s digital business transformation, mobilizing organizational resources and enabling connections among them, but create shared accountabilities and joint KPIs with the business for results. The rest of the business should focus on implementing digital capabilities and driving change in their respective areas.”

“Action: Ensure that the executive team consistently reinforces the direction of the transformation, along with their explicit expectation that managers and individual employees plan, invest, and execute in ways that support this direction.

“Action: Create an appropriately sized internal venture fund that can accelerate cross-functional efforts and business outcomes.”

“Action: Document major digital initiatives occurring across the business to create visibility and potential synergies. The orchestrator, however, shouldn’t try to “own” these projects.”

“Action: Make the customer the centerpiece of your company’s digital business transformation. Work backward from how you intend to create new or improved value for the end customer.”

“Action: Create transformation networks consisting of multiple instruments to address transformation challenges. Keep each transformation network small, agile, and focused on a highly specific transformation challenge. This makes measuring the progress and impacts of the change easier.”

“Action: Encourage the CTO to build a strong rapport with division and functional leaders; rather than competing with the business, the transformation office should be seen as a source of innovation, agility, and speed.”

“Action: Keep the transformation office focused on incubating new processes and better capabilities. Transition ongoing management of these processes and capabilities when they reach maturity to the business. The transformation office should remain engaged to adjust the outputs over time.”

“Action: Ensure that the CTO works with other key leaders, particularly the CIO and the assigned transformation leads, to increase the overall level of digital business agility in the company—its foundational capacity to change. This involves creating weak connections among organizational resources that provide new or relevant information, as well as strong connections that create the trust and cohesion needed for a connected approach to change.”

What should I personally do?

Study these….. “Digital technologies including AI and automation, IoT, 5G, and blockchain will profoundly impact companies in the years ahead.”

AI & automation: “It’s not inconceivable that we reach a point in the not-too-distant future where AI is used to orchestrate transformation networks of robots and other intelligent systems to deliver on the organization’s guiding objectives. Already we are seeing signs of orchestration and “resource programmability” coming to the world of IT, where analytics, telemetry, cloud, and virtualization technology allow organizations to shift bandwidth or compute resources, or to establish new policies or access rules, on the fly across a vast footprint of technologies.”

IoT & 5G: “The growth of IoT and the launch of 5G are setting the stage for the level of connectivity within organizations to skyrocket. IoT and 5G will enable organizations to obtain a real-time high-definition view of their people, data, and infrastructure, allowing organizations an unprecedented and detailed understanding of their resources and how they are working together (or not). These technologies will drive tremendous growth in data, which will allow companies to uncover hidden patterns of poor resource utilization that beget inefficiencies or hinder value creation. Better data heralds the possibility of better decision-making.”

Blockchain: “Blockchain and smart contract technology have the power to transform both intra-company and inter-company operating processes, including supply chain, legal, finance, human resources, and sales. For example, blockchain technology could be used in HR to verify employment history and training credentials, while it could transform payment processing and contract management in finance and improve traceability in a company’s supply chain. An orchestrator could simply program a smart contract to execute an organizational change, transmitting money or information automatically when triggered.”

Summary

The book in six words – “Silos are the enemy of transformation.” 

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Schmidt, Rosenberg, Eagle: Trillion Dollar Coach

About the book

Eric Schmidt et al. wrote a book about an anomaly. The book tells the story of Bill Campbell who coached in Silicon Valley. Mr. Campbell – the Trillion Dollar Coach, was coaching same time the top management from example Apple and Google.

Larry Page, Steve Jobs, Sheryl Sandberg and of course mr. Schmidt were people who he coached.  How odd? Actually it’s not odd in Silicon Valley to be coaching high-powered people who work for competing tech giants.

What made Bill Campbell so exceptional? Most probably his nature, way of working and talent of helping people to see their potential.

The stories have true value for outsiders of the Silicon Valley system. It helps us to understand the business of Silicon Valley. It can change our way of thinking. And last but least – you can learn from the stories.

Towards the end of the book the writers loses the grip from the reader. Last pages turns into testimonials from the coachees.

What are the key learnings?

Trillion Dollar Coach is about what and how Bill Campbell coached “what were the things he told people to do – and how he coached – what was his approach.”

Key learnings were:

Teams

  • “He used coaching to “mold effective people into powerful teams.
  • Everything great in the company happened in teams. That was my pitch in the talk: start treating teams, not individuals, as the fundamental building block of the organization.
  • When change happens, the priority has to be what is best for the team.”

Managers

  • Why do we need managers? “I want someone I can learn from, and someone to break ties.”

Staff meetings

  • “Pay close attention to running meetings well; “get the 1:1 right” and “get the staff meeting right” are tops on the list of his most important management principles.”

Board meetings

  • “Board meetings fail when the CEO doesn’t own and follow her agenda.
  • That agenda should always start with operational updates: the board needs to know how the company is doing.
  • That includes financial and sales reports, product status, and metrics around operational rigor (hiring, communications, marketing, support).
  • If the board has committees, for example to oversee audit and finance or compensation, have those committees meet ahead of time (in person or via phone or video conference) and present updates at the board meeting.
  • The first order of business always needs to be a frank, open, succinct discussion about how the company is performing.

Trust

  • “Perhaps the most important currency in a relationship – friendship, romantic, familial, or professional – is trust.”

Skills

  • “Many of the other skills of management can be delegated, but not coaching.”

Communications

  • Communications is critical to a company’s success. “He frequently coached us to make sure that others in the company understood what we understood.
  • Even when you have clearly communicated something, it may take a few times to sink in.
  • Repetition doesn’t spoil the prayer”

Walk

  • Bill coached walking around their Palo Alto neighborhood.

About trust:

–      Trust means loyalty.

–      Trust means integrity.

–      Trust means discretion.

–      ”Trust doesn’t mean you always agree; in fact, it makes it easier to disagree with someone.”

About stories:

–      “Don’t tell people what to do, tell them stories about why they are doing it.

–      “Bill coached me to tell stories. When people understand the story they can connect to it and figure out what to do.”

About teams. Excellent teams at Google had:

1)   Psychological safety.

2)   The teams had clear goals.

3)   Each role was meaningful.

4)   Members were reliable.

5)   Confident that the team’s mission would make a difference.

The traits of coachability are:

–      Honesty and humility.

–      The willingness to persevere and work hard.

–      A constant openness to learning.

How should we change according to the book?

We should adopt the future formula and ask how they stayed engaged in their careers. The answers should be:

BE CREATIVE.

  • “You should be in your most creative time.
  • You have wisdom of experience and freedom to apply it where you want.
  • Avoid metaphors such as you are on the “back nine.” This denigrates the impact you can have.”

DON’T BE A DILETTANTE.

  • “Don’t just do a portfolio of things.
  • Whatever you get involved with, have accountability and consequence. Drive it.”

FIND PEOPLE WHO HAVE VITALITY.

  • “Surround yourself with them; engage with them. Often they will be younger.”

APPLY YOUR GIFTS.

  • “Figure out what you are uniquely good at, what sets you apart.
  • And understand the things inside you that give you a sense of purpose.
  • Then apply them.”

DON’T WASTE TIME WORRYING ABOUT THE FUTURE.

  • “Allow serendipity to play a role.
  • Most of the turning points in life cannot be predicted or controlled.”

What should I personally do?

“A big turnoff for Bill was if they were no longer learning. Do they have more answers than questions? That’s a bad sign!”

Summary

The book in six words – “If you’ve been blessed, be a blessing.” Ron Johnson (CEO of JCPenney)

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Ellis & Brown: Hacking Growth

About the book

I’m sorry – this is going to be one of the loooooongest LinkedIn articles that I have ever published. But I’m so excited about the topic and especially the content of the book was spot on – so I’ll forgive myself.

This book is all about breaking the silos within organisations and especially breaking the walls between marketing and engineering.

For me the key question while reading the book was that is growth hacking a new way of doing business development or merely a new way of doing prospecting?

After reading the book I can conclude that growth hacking is kind of next generation war room activity, but without the typical sense of urgency of war room activity. That does not mean that growth hacking would have more time to deliver results. On the contrary growth hacking is very focused on delivering results. But growth hacking teams does not come from an idle world where business has been so gooooood. Growth hackers come from the world of Internet.

“Growth hacking is so much more than a business strategy, or even an ongoing process. It’s a philosophy, a way of thinking, and it’s one that can be adopted in any team or company, big or small.”

What are the key learnings?

“Where did Skype go wrong? Put simply, the product and executive teams failed to grasp the appeal of mobile messaging and perceive how rapidly mobile phones and tablets were being integrated into workplace communication.”

This book has two key learnings:

1)   Customers Relationship

a.   Approaches like these is meant to be used as building, growing, and retaining a customer base.

2)   Ability to Grow

a.   “More important, companies’ growing ability to collect, store, and analyze vast amounts of user data, and to track it in real time, was now enabling even small start-ups to experiment with new business opportunities at an increasingly low cost, much higher speed, and greater level of precision.”

Lead your business via measuring:

–      Aha moment

o  “Vital step in determining whether your product has the aha potential is to seek out truly avid fans by mining user data and feedback, and then to search for any similarities in the ways these people use the product.”

–      Retention

o  “Whether or not you’ve achieved must-have status is your product’s retention rate.”

The way of working is a “process is a continuous cycle comprising four key steps”:

(1) ANALYZE:

a.   Data analysis and insight gathering;

(2) IDEATE:

a.   Idea generation;

(3) PRIORITIZE:

a.   Experiment prioritization; and

(4) TEST:

a.   Running the experiments, and then circles back to the analyze step to review results and decide the next steps.”

North Star

Choosing your North Star is a crucial part of the Growth Hacking operations:

–      “To determine what that is you must ask yourself: Which of the variables in your growth equation best represents the delivery of that must-have experience you identified for your product?”

–      “The North Star should be the metric that most accurately captures the core value you create for your customers.

–       “The North Star may change over time as the company grows and initial goals are achieved.”

By far the best part of the book is about almost classic cases:

–      “Hotmail, for example, was one of the first to tap into the viral quality of Web products—and their ability to “sell themselves”—when it added the simple tagline “P.S: Get Your Free Email at Hotmail” at the bottom of every email that users sent, with a link to a landing page to set up an account.”

–      “LinkedIn, which had struggled to gain traction in its first year, saw their growth begin to skyrocket in late 2003, when the engineering team worked out an ingenious way for members to painlessly upload and invite their email contacts stored in their Outlook address book, kicking network effects growth into high gear.”

–      “How would you feel if you could no longer use Dropbox?” Users could respond “Very disappointed,” “Somewhat disappointed,” “Not disappointed,” or “N/A no longer using the product” (I wrote the question this way because I found that asking people if they were satisfied with a product didn’t deliver meaningful insights; disappointment was a much better gauge of product loyalty than satisfaction). I had found that companies where more than 40 percent of respondents said they would be “very disappointed” if they could no longer use the product had very strong growth potential, where those that fell under that 40 percent threshold tended to face a much harder path in growing the business (due to user apathy).” 

Growth hacking as a way of working

Growth hacking is combination of new tools and old tricks. “Growth was about engineer[ing] systems of scale and enabling our users to grow the product for us. The Lean Startup adopted the practice of rapid development and frequent testing, and added the practice of getting a minimum viable product out on the market and into the hands of actual users as soon as possible, to get real user feedback and establish a viable business. Growth hacking adopted the continuous cycle of improvement and the rapid iterative approach of both methods and applied them to customer and revenue growth.”

How to organize?

“At LinkedIn, for example, the growth team has evolved from an initial 15-person unit to comprise 120-plus members, broken down into five units dedicated to: network growth; SEO/SEM operations; onboarding; international growth; and engagement and resurrection of users.13 At Uber, by contrast, the growth team is divided into groups, including those who focus on adding more drivers, growing the pool of riders, expanding internationally, and more.”

Benefits of growth hacking

SURVIVING DISRUPTION

⁃ They risk being disrupted by a competitor who has growth hacking methods.

THE NEED FOR SPEED

⁃ Start-ups and established companies alike, in other words, simply can’t afford to be slowed down by organizational silos

MINING DATA GOLD

⁃ Growth hacking cultivates the maximization of big data through collaboration and information sharing.

THE RISING COSTS AND DUBIOUS RETURNS OF TRADITIONAL MARKETING

⁃ Growth hacking empowers companies to achieve breakout growth without pouring money into outdated and horribly expensive marketing campaigns of questionable business value.

GETTING THE JUMP ON NEW TECHNOLOGY

⁃ Seizing these opportunities requires tech and marketing teams to work closely together.

(VIRAL CHANNEL EFFECTIVENESS is rapidly changing)

Myth busting

0. First, the process is not, as it’s been misunderstood by some, about discovering one “silver bullet” solution.

0. Second, many companies believe they can simply hire a single Lone Ranger to be the growth hacker, who will swoop in with a bag of magic tricks to bring growth to their business. This, too, is badly misguided. Throughout the book we show that, in reality, growth hacking is a team effort, that the greatest successes come from combining programming know-how with expertise in data analytics and strong marketing experience, and very few individuals are proficient in all of these skills.

0. Growth hacking is often characterized as being specifically about bringing in new users or customers. But in fact, growth teams are, and should be, tasked with much broader responsibilities:

A) They should also work on customer activation. In addition, growth teams should work on finding ways to 

B) retain and 

C) monetize customers.

Part I: Method

Building Growth Teams

Breaking silos…. “This kind of collaboration between marketing and product teams is woefully uncommon. As the BitTorrent team soon realized, often the best ideas come from this type of cross-functional collaboration, which, again, is why it’s a fundamental feature of the growth hacking process. P.S. BitTorrent was a company that had 50 people in their pay roll.”

“The success of this data-driven approach to growth and product development prompted the BitTorrent executives to invest more heavily in data science and staff up its analytics team.”

THE WHO

These positions can be also seen as functions or responsibilities if they cannot be identified/dedicated as persons to the growth team.

A) THE GROWTH LEAD

“The growth lead sets the course for experimentation as well as the tempo of experiments to be run, and monitors whether or not the team is meeting their goals.

All growth leads require a basic set of skills: fluency in data analysis; expertise or fluency in product management (meaning the process of developing and launching a product); and an understanding of how to design and run experiments.”

B) PRODUCT MANAGER

“The role is well suited to assisting in the growth hacking mission of breaking down the silos between departments and identifying good candidates in engineering and marketing to help start the growth team.”

C) SOFTWARE ENGINEERS

“Recall that at BitTorrent, the engineers were invaluable in recommending the development of the lucrative battery saver feature. The very essence of growth hacking is the hacker spirit that emerged out of software development and design of solving problems with novel engineering approaches. Growth teams simply don’t work without software engineers being a part of them.”

D) MARKETING SPECIALISTS

“The cross-pollination of expertise between engineering and marketing can be particularly fruitful in generating ideas for hacks to try.”

E) DATA ANALYSTS

“Understanding how to collect, organize, and then perform sophisticated analysis on customer data to gain insights that lead to ideas for experiments, is another of the cornerstone requirements for teams. A growth team might not include an analyst as a full-time member, but rather have an analyst assigned to it who collaborates with the team but performs other work for the company as well. “

“What is essential is that data analysis not be farmed out to the intern who knows how to use Google Analytics or to a digital agency, to cite extreme but all too frequent realities.”

F) PRODUCT DESIGNERS

“Having design experience on a team often improves the speed of execution of experiments, because the team has a dedicated staff person to immediately produce whatever design work may be involved.”

THE SIZE AND SCOPE

“If you’re just starting to form a growth team, then bringing over one or two individuals from different departments to get the team started may be a good way to get the ball rolling, and the size of the team can grow over time.”

THE HOW

“The process is a continuous cycle comprising four key steps:

(1) ANALYZE: Data analysis and insight gathering;

(2) IDEATE: Idea generation;

(3) PRIORITIZE: Experiment prioritization; and

(4) TEST: Running the experiments, and then circles back to the analyze step to review results and decide the next steps.”

<= Check also the process behind The Lean Startup (Build-Measure-Learn).

Churn – is it a new business opportunity?

“An in-depth analysis of customer churn (meaning identifying those who recently abandoned the product) might reveal that the people who are defecting haven’t made use of a particular feature of the product that is popular with avid users.

Growth cannot be a side project

You need a Executive sponsor…. “Growth teams must be worked into the organizational reporting structure of a company with total clarity about to whom the growth lead reports. It is imperative that a high-level executive is given responsibility for the team, in order to assure that the team has the authority to cross the bounds of the established departmental responsibilities. Growth cannot be a side project. Without clear and forceful commitment from leadership, growth teams will find themselves battling bureaucracy, turf wars, inefficiency, and inertia.”

THE REPORTING STRUCTURES FOR TEAMS

THE PRODUCT-LED MODEL

Growth team is under vice president for products.

–      Acquisition = New Business

–      Activation = Current customers

–      Retention = Retention

In addition to Pinterest, companies that follow this model include LinkedIn, Twitter, and Dropbox.

THE INDEPENDENT-LED MODEL

“Independent teams are most easily established early in a company’s development before corporate structures have crystallized and ownership battles over resources and reporting formalize. When the turf isn’t yet claimed, there are fewer complaints against redistributing responsibility and headcount to a growth team. That said, it’s not impossible to introduce independent growth teams in established, larger companies.”

Chapter 2 Must-have product

The Cardinal Rules of Growth Hacking

“One of the cardinal rules of growth hacking is that you must not move into the high-tempo growth experimentation push until you 

1. know your product is must-have, 

2. why it’s must-have, and 

3. to whom it is a must-have: in other words, what is its core value, to which customers, and why.”

“The opportunity costs of pushing for growth too soon are twofold. 

0. First, you’re spending precious money and time on the wrong efforts (i.e., on promoting a product that no one wants); and 

0. second, rather than turning early customers into fans, you’re making them disillusioned, even angry, critics. Remember that viral word of mouth can work two ways; it can supercharge growth or it can stop it in its tracks.”

“Many other products that achieved rocket-like growth by pushing too hard too soon for adoption have flamed out in similarly spectacular fashion. Which is why all growth hackers must always keep in mind that, as the growth team at Airbnb says, “love creates growth, not the other way around.”

“And for there to be love, there needs to be that aha moment.” 

WHAT’S THE AHA MOMENT?

“Identifying what a product’s aha moment is can sometimes be quite tricky.”

Find your true believers: “Vital step in determining whether your product has the aha potential is to seek out truly avid fans by mining user data and feedback, and then to search for any similarities in the ways these people use the product.”

For example at Slack the 2 000 messages is a threshold. “A team chat and messaging product designed to eliminate internal corporate email threads (and one of the fastest-growing business applications of all time), data showed that once team members had sent and received 2,000 messages to one another, the team became far more likely to make Slack a core part of their communication workflow and upgrade to a paid plan with premium features.”

“The good news is that while discovering how to make a product deliver an aha moment can be very difficult, determining whether or not your product meets the baseline requirement generally doesn’t require elaborate diagnostics. We advise a simple two-part assessment.”

THE MUST-HAVE SURVEY

This Must-Have Survey begins with the question: 

How disappointed would you be if this product no longer existed tomorrow? 

a) Very disappointed 

b) Somewhat disappointed 

c) Not disappointed (it really isn’t that useful) 

d) N/ A—I no longer use it

Now this is important!

–      “Interpreting the results is simple enough; if 40 percent or more of responses are “very disappointed,” then the product has achieved sufficient must-have status, which means the green light to move full speed ahead gunning for growth.”

–      “If 25 to 40 percent of respondents answer “very disappointed,” then often what’s needed are tweaks either to the product or to the language used to describe the product and how to use it. If less than 25 percent answer “very disappointed,” it’s likely that either the audience you’ve attracted is the wrong fit for your product, or the product itself needs more substantial development before it’s ready for a growth push.”

–      “In these cases, a set of additional questions on the Must-Have Survey will help to point you toward your next steps: What would you likely use as an alternative to [name of product] if it were no longer available? I probably wouldn’t use an alternative I would use: What is the primary benefit that you have received from [name of product]? Have you recommended [name of product] to anyone? No Yes (Please explain how you described it) What type of person do you think would benefit most from [name of product]? How can we improve [name of product] to better meet your needs? Would it be okay if we followed up by email to request a clarification to one or more of your responses?”

“The question about alternative products can help identify your chief competition for customers.”

MEASURING RETENTION 

“The second measure to use in assessing whether or not you’ve achieved must-have status is your product’s retention rate.” 

Achieving stable retention should not be viewed as a benchmark that once passed can be assumed has been accomplished and that the team is done with; teams must expect to continue to work on sustaining retention. And, in fact, they should keep working to improve the retention rate.

Remember that “according to data published by mobile intelligence company Quettra, most mobile apps, for example, retain just 10 percent of their audience after one month, while the best mobile apps retain more than 60 percent of their users one month after installation.” 

“And fast-food restaurant chains see month-over-month retention of customers ranging from 50 to 80 percent. For example, McDonald’s saw 78 percent of their customers come in every month to their restaurants in 2012.14 A 2013 study concluded that credit card companies in the US see annual churn rates of roughly 20 percent, while European cellphone carriers see churn of anywhere between 20 and 40 percent.” 

“Be aware of the feature creep; that is, adding more and more features that do not truly create core value and that often make products cumbersome and confusing to use.”

How to find your true believers?

Innovators and Etsy…. “Etsy discovered the network power of “Stitch ’n Bitch” groups, comprised of feminist crafters who were a key force in the growth of the craft movement.”

Proximity and Tinder… “Yet Tinder faced a unique challenge in gaining early adopters that wasn’t an issue for Etsy—people are only interested in finding dating prospects who are fairly close by.”

Preexisisting communities… “Preexisting communities to target for insight into how to achieve the aha moment can also.”

House of Cards…. “For example, at Netflix, by examining the movies and shows that customers were watching, the company found that Kevin Spacey films and political drama series were both hugely popular with their customers. That insight gave the company confidence to green-light the development of House of Cards, which became not only a huge hit, but also a must-have experience for many subscribers.”

Instagram… “Systrom and cofounder Mike Krieger realized that taking and sharing photos was the aha experience they should redesign around.”

YouTube…. “Similarly, though it is hard to believe today, YouTube started as a video dating site, pivoting to be the home for all video online only once the founders saw that users weren’t only uploading video profiles to find dates, but rather sharing videos of all types.”

“A minimum viable test (MVT), the least costly experiment that can be run to adequately vet an idea.”

“One particularly powerful and typically inexpensive method is A/ B testing.”

DRIVING TO THE AHA 

–      Focus…. “Remember that all of this experimentation and analysis should be focused on discovering the aha moment you are offering, or can offer, customers.

–      New customers…. “Once the conditions that create that magical experience have been identified, the growth team should turn its attention to getting more customers to experience that moment as fast as possible.”

Companies deploy many additional tactics to drive users to the aha, such as product tours, email communication, special offers, and more, and we’ll cover when and how to implement each type more fully in the later chapters.

III. Identifying your growth levers

HACKING YOUR GROWTH STRATEGY

Growth strategy…. “Creating an aha moment and driving more people to it is the starting point for hacking growth. The next step is to determine your growth strategy.”

Mad scientist…. “You must be rigorously scientific in identifying the kind of growth you need and the levers that will drive it.”

Build your own growth equation.

Uber…. “For Uber, for example, one crucial factor is the number of drivers, because there must be enough of them in any given location to ensure the aha moment of a ride showing up quickly. The number of riders is also crucial, not only for generating revenue, but for assuring that there’s enough demand for drivers so that those who do sign on keep driving. This is why the growth team at Uber is tasked specifically with improving these two core metrics.”

LinkedIn…. “But for LinkedIn, the large pool of people who have simply filled in their work profiles, even if they hardly ever visit the site, is the fundamental basis of the site’s value.”

eBay…. “By contrast, for eBay, one of the metrics that matters most is not daily users or new users but the number of items listed for sale.”

CHOOSING A NORTH STAR

“Some in the growth community refer to this one key metric as the One Metric That Matters, while others call it the North Star.”

“The North Star should be the metric that most accurately captures the core value you create for your customers. To determine what that is you must ask yourself: Which of the variables in your growth equation best represents the delivery of that must-have experience you identified for your product?”

WhatsApp… “WhatsApp’s North Star was therefore the number of messages sent.”

AirBnB… “For Airbnb, the North Star was nights booked.”

“The North Star may change over time as the company grows and initial goals are achieved.”

“As companies grow, they also create more product and growth teams, which have their own North Stars, even while the company may still have its one overridingly important metric.”

Picking the right North Star helps to reorient growth efforts to more optimal solutions.

IT’S NOT ALL ABOUT THE NUMBERS

Dashboards…. “For small start-ups such as Geckoboard and Klipfolio, to enterprise solutions such as Tableau and Qlik Sense and dozens more.”

Twitter…. “Three cohorts: core users, who visited at least seven times a month; casual users, who visited less often; and cold users, who never came back after a first visit.”

IV. Testing at high tempo

“Learning more by learning faster is also the goal—and the great benefit—of the high-tempo growth hacking process.”

Mannaryyni-strategia… “Remember that, generally, big successes in growth hacking come from a series of small wins, compounded over time.”

“Many of the leading growth teams regularly run 20 to 30 experiments a week, and some run many more.” 

THE GROWTH HACKING CYCLE

Recall that the stages of the process are: 

0. Analyze – data analysis and insight gathering, 

0. Ideate – idea generation, experiment prioritization, 

0. Test – running the experiments, and 

0. Analyze – then returning to the analyze step to review results and decide next steps, in a continuous loop.

“In the very first growth meeting, you won’t yet be making decisions about which tests to run. Rather, team members will take the next week to brainstorm and percolate ideas for what experiments to run in the first cycle.”

As Linus Pauling said, “The best way to have a good idea is to have lots of ideas.”

“Ideas should be submitted to an idea pipeline, following a templated format by which they should be submitted. It’s important to standardize the format so that ideas can be quickly evaluated, without the team needing to ask lots of questions.”

HYPOTHESIS

“Like in any other type of experiment, the hypothesis should be a simple proposition of expected cause and effect.

You ultimately want ideas coming in not only from the members of the team, but from people all around the company.

Before an idea is ready to be considered by the team, it must be scored. ICE score system, with ICE standing for 

0. Impact, 

0. Confidence, and 

0. Ease. 

When submitting ideas, the submitter should rate each idea on a ten-point scale, across each of the following three criteria: the idea’s potential impact, the submitter’s level of confidence in how effective it will be, and how easy it will be to implement.

It’s true that scoring your own ideas can be challenging, as they do require relative subjectivity and some degree of trying to predict the future.

While we like to use the ICE system, many other scoring systems have been created by fellow growth hackers. Bryan Eisenberg, considered the godfather of conversion optimization, recommends his TIR system, which stands for Time, Impact, and Resources. 3 Another system is PIE, for Potential, Importance, and Ease.” 

BACK TO STAGE

“ANALYSIS AND LEARNING The analysis of the test results should be conducted by either the analyst or the growth lead, if he or she has the expertise.

It should also be added to a database where you store all test summaries, which we call the knowledge base. Create a “Wins” email distribution list.”

War Room schedule

Your weekly schedule:

–      Monday

o  On Monday, the members check in on experiments in progress to identify any that can be concluded, or to collect data to update the team on during the meeting.

–      Tuesday

o  The growth meeting is held on Tuesdays, which provides the team with a day at the beginning of the week to finish some of the requisite prep work.

o  The growth team lead does a review of the activity from the prior week, including:

§ Look at the number of experiments successfully launched and compare it to the velocity goal of the team

§ Confer with the data analyst to update all of the key metrics they’re following so that she can brief the team about them, perhaps distributing reports

§ Gather the data about any tests that were concluded

§ Conduct a high-level assessment of the previous week’s activity and results, including a summary of findings about both the positive and negative effects on growth discovered from the experiments

§ Compile this information and include it with the meeting agenda, which acts as a living document and is shared with the team beforehand. Some teams keep this document as a file that lives in the cloud, such as in Google Docs or Dropbox, while others use an internal wiki page in software such as Google Sites, Confluence, or the corporate intranet.

Meeting schedule:

–      15 MINUTES: METRICS REVIEW AND UPDATE FOCUS AREA

–      10 MINUTES: REVIEW LAST WEEK’S TESTING ACTIVITY

–      15 MINUTES: KEY LESSONS LEARNED FROM ANALYZED EXPERIMENTS

–      15 MINUTES: SELECT GROWTH TESTS FOR CURRENT CYCLE

–      5 MINUTES: CHECK GROWTH OF IDEA PIPELINE

PART II: GROWTH HACKING PLAYBOOK

V. Hacking acquisition

“The first phase of work in scaling up your acquisition of customers should be devoted to achieving two additional types of fit: 

–      Language/ market fit, which is how well the way you describe the benefits of your product resonates with your target audience, and 

–      Channel/ product fit, which describes how effective the marketing channels are that you’ve selected to reach your intended audience with your product, such as paid search advertising or viral, or content, marketing.”

“The term language/ market fit was coined by James Currier to refer to how well the language you use to describe and market your product to potential users resonates with them and motivates them to give it a try.

Research has shown that the average attention span (the amount of time we focus on a new piece of information online) of humans is now eight seconds.”

“This means that the language you use must directly and persuasively connect with a need or desire they have in order to hook them—in eight seconds or less!”

“Most email marketing systems, such as Salesforce Marketing Cloud and MailChimp, make it easy to test specific pieces of your email copy, such as the subject line or call to action.”

LANGUAGE FIT HELPS HONE YOUR PRODUCT, NOT JUST YOUR BRANDING 

“Sometimes the changes in wording you arrive at will lead you to additional changes to make.”

Don’t diversify:

–      “In stock market investing, experts agree that it’s best to spread your money across a wide swath of diverse types of businesses and sectors. But this is not the right strategy when it comes to finding the channels for marketing and distributing your product (which in Web business are often one and the same).

–      Marketers commonly make the mistake of believing that diversifying efforts across a wide variety of channels is best for growth. As a result, they spread resources too thin and don’t focus enough on optimizing one or a couple of the channels likely to be most effective.

–      Most often it’s better, as Google founder and CEO Larry Page has said, to put “more wood behind fewer arrows.” Or as Peter Thiel, cofounder of PayPal, Palantir, and the first outside investor in Facebook, tells start-up founders, “It is very likely that one channel is optimal.

–      Most businesses actually get zero distribution channels to work. Poor distribution—not product—is the number one cause of failure.

–      If you can get even a single distribution channel to work, you have great business. If you try for several but don’t nail one, you’re finished.” 

There are two phases in which to home in on your best channels:

1)   Discovery and

2)   Optimization.

“You’ll often need to offer users an incentive. The best way to do this is to create a double-sided incentive, that is, one that offers something to both the sender and the recipient.”

CREATE AN INCENTIVE THAT’S IN SYNERGY WITH YOUR PRODUCT’S CORE VALUE

“Cash offers can work also, but for the best effect, it’s important that they’re also related to the core value of the product.”

EXPERIMENT, EXPERIMENT, EXPERIMENT

“The point is: many of the best hacks are unanticipated discoveries. The methods you read about are designed to help you find them—strategically, efficiently, and at low cost.”

VI. Hacking activation

“The first step in hacking activation is to identify each point in your customers’ journey toward the aha moment.”

CREATING A FUNNEL REPORT OF CONVERSIONS AND DROP-OFFS 

“One of the best ways to measure conversion rates is through a funnel report, a tool that displays the rates at which people who come to your product are moving on to each of the key steps in the customer journey.”

SURVEY DOS AND DON’TS

“We advise asking one or two questions at maximum, which either can be open-ended or can offer a set of answers to select from. 

We have a preference for open-ended questions because they don’t shoehorn people into your preconceived notions of what the problems users are encountering are. Letting them respond with whatever they feel like sharing allows them to surprise you.”

“The key takeaway here is that you cannot know ahead of time which experiments are going to be most effective.”

“The bottom line is: there are no shortcuts. But if you follow the three steps we have outlined above, you will rapidly discover ideas and insights that will produce dramatic gains in activation for your product. To recap, those steps are: 

–      map all of the steps that get users to the aha moment; 

–      create a funnel report that profiles the conversion rates for each of the steps and segments users by the channel through which they arrive; and 

–      conduct surveys and interviews both of users who progressed through each step where you’re seeing high drop-offs, and those who left at that point to understand the causes of drop-off.”

ERADICATING FRICTION

“In user experience design, friction is the term used to refer to any annoying hindrances that prevent someone from accomplishing the action they’re trying to complete, such as ads that pop up in the middle of an article you’re reading.”

DESIRE – FRICTION = CONVERSION RATE

Important…. “In order to improve activation, you can either increase your customers’ desire or reduce the friction they experience.”

OPTIMIZING THE NEW USER EXPERIENCE 

First rule…. “The first rule of designing and optimizing your NUX is to treat it as a unique, onetime encounter with your product.”

Second rule…. “The second rule is that the first landing page of the NUX must accomplish three fundamental things: communicate relevance, show the value of the product, and provide a clear call to action.”

“Flip the funnel, meaning to allow visitors to start experiencing the joys of your product before asking them to sign up.”

THE POWER OF POSITIVE FRICTION 

“One of the great ironies of improving activation is that not all friction is bad.

Learn flow is Elman’s definition of a new user experience that’s designed to more than just sign people up, but rather purposefully educates new users about the product, its benefits and value.”

THE ART OF THE QUESTIONNAIRE 

“Neil Patel, a leading expert in growth hacking, has highlighted the effectiveness of asking users a set of questions as you greet them.

A key caution here is that you also don’t want to ask too many questions. Patel recommends no more than five, and making them multiple-choice rather than open-ended.”

GAMIFICATION PROS AND CONS 

“Gamification is, in essence, offering rewards, such as perks and benefits not available to all people, to customers for taking certain actions.”

INS AND OUTS OF TRIGGERS

“Triggers are any sort of prompt that provokes a response from people, common ones being email notifications, mobile push notifications, and, less obtrusively, calls to action on a landing page.

There is no denying that triggers are one of the most powerful tactics for increasing the use of your product.

A great rule of thumb about deploying triggers is that your rationale for getting in touch with the users should be to alert them of an opportunity of clear value to them. For example, the grocery app team could send notifications when an item that a person has saved in their shopping list goes on sale.

The bottom line is: do experiment with triggers, because they can be extraordinarily effective, but do so with a very thoughtful understanding of how they can actually be of service to your users.”

VII. Hacking retention

“Legendary business expert Peter Drucker famously wrote many years ago that the purpose of business is to create and keep a customer.”

“Frederick Reichheld of Bain & Company has shown that a 5 percent increase in customer retention rates increases profits by anywhere from 25 to 95 percent.”

WHAT DRIVES RETENTION? 

“What builds customer loyalty and keeps customers coming back.”

THE THREE PHASES OF RETENTION

1. “The initial retention period is the critical time during which a new user either becomes convinced to keep using or buying a product or service, or goes dormant after one or a few visits.

2. “Medium retention phase, a period when the interest in a product’s novelty often fades.”

3. “Long-term retention. This is the phase in which growth teams can help to assure that a product keeps offering customers more value.”

“For e-commerce, the basic metric of retention is the repurchase rate of customers, which might, for example, be the number of times customers make a purchase per month.”

IDENTIFY AND CHART YOUR COHORTS

Cohort analysis….. “This allows you to probe more deeply into your data to make discoveries about why those who are staying are doing so—and why others are not.”

HACKING INITIAL RETENTION 

“Once you’ve analyzed the cohort data to identify drop-off points in initial retention and deployed surveys to probe into the causes of the defections, you can begin to experiment with solutions.”

“One general rule that holds true across most product types is that improving the perceived value of the rewards leads to greater retention.”

“Teams should be creative about thinking of ideas for such nontangible rewards to offer, and they should also experiment with blending both tangible rewards and experiential and social ones.” Such as:

1.   BRAND AMBASSADOR PROGRAMS

2.   RECOGNITION OF ACHIEVEMENTS

3.   CUSTOMIZATION OF THE RELATIONSHIP

“Promise of new features as a retention hook. “Coming Soon” hack.”

LONG-TERM RETENTION 

“Once you’ve achieved strong retention for a good base of users, the next step is to focus on continuing to keep them happy and highly active over the long haul. Here we recommend a two-pronged approach that involves:

(1) optimizing the current set of product features, notifications, and subsequent rewards from repeated use; and

(2) introducing a steady stream of new features over a long period of time.”

ONGOING ONBOARDING 

As new features are added, and also as more discoveries are made about how the most avid and satisfied of your customers are using your product, it’s important to continue to educate your customers about the value they can be deriving from your product.”

RESURRECTING “ZOMBIE” CUSTOMERS 

“Winning back users who’ve abandoned a product is called resurrection in growth circles. The growth hacking process can again help you discover experiments to run to win back “zombie customers” who have disappeared off your radar.”

VIII. Hacking monetization

MAP YOUR MONETIZATION FUNNEL 

“As with all growth hacking efforts, the first step is to perform data analysis that will help you home in on the highest-potential experiments. When it comes to monetization, analysis starts by returning to the basic mapping of the entire customer journey.”

ASK CUSTOMERS WHAT BENEFITS THEY WANT 

“Growth teams should also again make use of surveys and find out directly from customers what improvements in the product, such as possible new features, new plan levels, or perhaps improved selection of items for sale, each of your key customer segments would most like to see.”

DON’T BE INTRUSIVE 

“An important word of caution about customizing is that it can backfire if you’re not sensitive about how you’re doing it. If you seem to be prying too deeply into people’s lives, customization becomes, for lack of a better word, creepy.”

OPTIMIZING YOUR PRICING

“William Poundstone cites the power of using “charm prices,” those that purposefully end with a 9 or 99 or 98 or 95 instead of the full round dollar amount. Hard as it may be to believe, those pricing strategies actually work; Poundstone writes, “In 8 studies published from 1987 to 2004, charm prices were reported to boost sales by an average of 24 percent relative to nearby prices.” 

LESS IS NOT ALWAYS MORE

“Psychologist and bestselling author Robert Cialdini explains this phenomenon: he says this is the result of people using price as a signal for quality, and it’s particularly common in markets such as technology and professional services.”

“Moreover, monetizing free users through ads, or by charging for add-on features, can be extremely lucrative.”

How should we change according to the book?

“Certain species of sharks must always keep moving to survive; if they stop swimming, they literally die. Growth teams are like those sharks. Teams that aren’t constantly innovating, that aren’t continuously diving into customer data and surveying, and that aren’t rapidly experimenting and producing results are not long for the world.”

What should I personally do?

I’m glad that I’ve studied statistics, because doing Internet business for 22 years has required basic understanding on statistical analysis. How little did I know back in the university days that statistics will be so useful in my career. My learning would that you should always study topics that might not seem super relevant “right at the moment”.

I should venture into new areas and educate myself.

And…. Try Kissmetrics.

Summary

The book in six words – “Love creates growth, not the other way around”.

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Collins & Hansen: Great by Choice

About the book

I just the love Mr. Jim Collins and his research team has conducted. No man on earth has made as much as Mr. Collins to help leaders to stay on track. The current business systems wouldn’t be the same without his insights, creative writings and evidence based analysis. We can easily promote Jim Collins to the same category as Peter Drucker.

“One should… be able to see that things are hopeless and yet be determined to make them otherwise.” —F. Scott Fitzgerald

What are the key learnings?

Key question… “What does it take to build a great company?”

This is the recipe…. “Bill Gates didn’t just get a lucky break and cash in his chips. He kept pushing, driving, working:

1)   staying on a 20 Mile March;

2)   firing first bullets, then big calibrated cannonballs;

3)   exercising productive paranoia to avoid the Death Line;

4)   developing and amending a SMaC recipe;

5)   hiring great people;

6)   building a culture of discipline; never deviating from his monomaniacal focus—and sustained his efforts for more than two decades.”

1 THRIVING IN UNCERTAINTY

Meaning of the book…. “All of this led us to a simple question: Why do some companies thrive in uncertainty, even chaos, and others do not? We began the nine-year research project behind this book in 2002, when America awoke from its false sense of stability, safety, and wealth entitlement.”

“We selected on performance plus environment for two reasons:

1)   First, we believe the future will remain unpredictable and the world unstable for the rest of our lives, and we wanted to understand the factors that distinguish great organizations, those that prevail against extreme odds, in such environments.

2)   Second, by looking at the best companies and their leaders in extreme environments, we gain insights that might otherwise remain hidden when studying leaders in more tranquil settings.”

FINDING THE 10X CASES

“We spent the first year of our efforts identifying the primary study set of 10X cases, searching for historical cases that met three basic tests:

1)   The enterprise sustained truly spectacular results for an era of 15 + years relative to the general stock market and relative to its industry.

2)   The enterprise achieved these results in a particularly turbulent environment, full of events that were uncontrollable, fast-moving, uncertain, and potentially harmful.

3)   The enterprise began its rise to greatness from a position of vulnerability, being young and/ or small at the start of its 10X journey.

The crucial question is “What did the great companies share in common that distinguished them from their direct comparisons?”

Leaders…. Entrenched myth: Successful leaders in a turbulent world are bold, risk-seeking visionaries. Contrary finding: The best leaders we studied did not have a visionary ability to predict the future. They observed what worked, figured out why it worked, and built upon proven foundations.

They were not:

·     more risk taking,

·     bolder,

·     more visionary, and

·     more creative than the comparisons.

They were:

·     more disciplined,

·     more empirical, and

·     more paranoid.

Innovation…. “Entrenched myth: Innovation distinguishes 10X companies in a fast-moving, uncertain, and chaotic world. Contrary finding: To our surprise, no. Yes, the 10X cases innovated, a lot. But the evidence does not support the premise that 10X companies will necessarily be more innovative than their less successful comparisons; and in some surprise cases, the 10X cases were less innovative. Innovation by itself turns out not to be the trump card we expected; more important is the ability to scale innovation, to blend creativity with discipline.”

Speed….. “Entrenched myth: A threat-filled world favors the speedy; you’re either the quick or the dead. Contrary finding: The idea that leading in a “fast world” always requires “fast decisions” and “fast action”—and that we should embrace an overall ethos of “Fast! Fast! Fast!”—is a good way to get killed. 10X leaders figure out when to go fast, and when not to.”

Change…. “Entrenched myth: Radical change on the outside requires radical change on the inside. Contrary finding: The 10X cases changed less in reaction to their changing world than the comparison cases. Just because your environment is rocked by dramatic change does not mean that you should inflict radical change upon yourself.”

Luck…. “Entrenched myth: Great enterprises with 10X success have a lot better luck.  Contrary finding: The 10X companies did not generally have more luck than the comparisons. Both sets had luck—lots of luck, both good and bad—in comparable amounts. The critical question is not whether you’ll have luck, but what you do with the luck that you get.”

Peter Drucker taught, “the best—perhaps even the only—way to predict the future is to create it.

2 10XERS

“Victory awaits him who has everything in order—luck people call it. Defeat is certain for him who has neglected to take the necessary precautions in time; this is called bad luck.” —Roald Amundsen, The South Pole

“Amundsen’s philosophy: You prepare with intensity, all the time, so that when conditions turn against you, you can draw from a deep reservoir of strength. And equally, you prepare so that when conditions turn in your favor, you can strike hard.”

“Unlike Scott, Amundsen systematically built enormous buffers for unforeseen events.”

“A single detail aptly highlights the difference in their approaches: Scott brought one thermometer for a key altitude-measurement device, and he exploded in “an outburst of wrath and consequence” when it broke; Amundsen brought four such thermometers to cover for accidents.”

DIFFERENT BEHAVIORS, NOT DIFFERENT CIRCUMSTANCES

“We’re not saying that 10Xers lacked creative intensity, ferocious ambition, or the courage to bet big. They displayed all these traits, but so did their less successful comparisons. So then, how did the 10Xers distinguish themselves?

1)   Control: First, 10Xers embrace a paradox of control and non-control. On the one hand, 10Xers understand that they face continuous uncertainty and that they cannot control, and cannot accurately predict, significant aspects of the world around them.

2)   Fate: On the other hand, 10Xers reject the idea that forces outside their control or chance events will determine their results; they accept full responsibility for their own fate.

10Xers then bring this idea to life by a triad of core behaviours:

·     Fanatic discipline,

·     Empirical creativity, and

·     Productive paranoia.

FANATIC DISCIPLINE

“Both Kelleher and Lewis, like all the 10Xers we studied, were nonconformists in the best sense. They started with values, purpose, long-term goals, and severe performance standards; and they had the fanatic discipline to adhere to them.”

(if you’re a hammer, everything you see looks like a nail).

EMPIRICAL CREATIVITY

Like scientists….. “CEOs of the 10Xers were like scientists. Working based on the data and evidence.”

“Social psychology research indicates that at times of uncertainty, most people look to other people—authority figures, peers, group norms—for their primary cues about how to proceed.

10Xers, in contrast, do not look to conventional wisdom to set their course during times of uncertainty, nor do they primarily look to what other people do, or to what pundits and experts say they should do. They look primarily to empirical evidence.”

“But the 10Xers had a much deeper empirical foundation for their decisions and actions, which gave them well-founded confidence and bounded their risk. The 10Xers don’t favor analysis over action; they favor empiricism as the foundation for decisive action.”

PRODUCTIVE PARANOIA

“Like Amundsen with his huge supply buffers, 10Xers maintain a conservative financial position, squirreling away cash to protect against unforeseen disruptions.”

“In short, we found no consistent pattern in the backgrounds of 10Xers relative to the comparison leaders.”

3 20 MILE MARCH

“The 20 Mile March is more than a philosophy. It’s about having concrete, clear, intelligent, and rigorously pursued performance mechanisms that keep you on track.”

“The 20 Mile March creates two types of self-imposed discomfort:

(1) the discomfort of unwavering commitment to high performance in difficult conditions, and

(2) the discomfort of holding back in good conditions.”

Important…. “We found that every 10X company exemplified the 20 Mile March principle during the era we studied.”

WHY 20 MILE MARCHERS WIN?

“20 Mile Marching helps turn the odds in your favor for three reasons:

1. Confidence: It builds confidence in your ability to perform well in adverse circumstances.

2. Prevent: It reduces the likelihood of catastrophe when you’re hit by turbulent disruption.

3. Self-control: It helps you exert self-control in an out-of-control environment.”

“Having a clear 20 Mile March focuses the mind; because everyone on the team knows the markers and their importance, they can stay on track.”

ARTHUR LEVINSON: TEACHING A COMPANY TO MARCH

A good 20 Mile March has the following seven characteristics:

1. Clear performance markers.

2. Self-imposed constraints.

3. Appropriate to the specific enterprise.

4. Largely within the company’s control to achieve.

5. A proper timeframe—long enough to manage, yet short enough to have teeth.

6. Imposed by the company upon itself.

7. Achieved with high consistency.

“Key question? What is your 20 Mile March, something that you commit to achieving for 15 to 30 year?”

4 FIRE BULLETS, THEN CANNONBALLS

A BIG SURPRISE

About innovation…. “The evidence from our research does not support the premise that 10X companies will necessarily be more innovative than their less successful comparisons. And in some surprise cases, such as Southwest Airlines versus PSA and Amgen versus Genentech, the 10X companies were less innovative than the comparisons.”

About pioneering…. “Tellis and Golder also found that 64 percent of pioneers failed outright.

Good for society, bad for pioneers…. “It seems that pioneering innovation is good for society but statistically lethal for the individual pioneer!”

The level of innovation…. “We’re not saying that innovation is unimportant. Every company in this study innovated. It’s just that the 10X winners innovated less than we would have expected relative to their industries and relative to their comparison cases; they were innovative enough to be successful but generally not the most innovative.”

CREATIVITY AND DISCIPLINE

“Of course, it is not discipline alone that makes greatness, but the combination of discipline and creativity.”

“Fire bullets, then fire cannonballs. First, you fire bullets to figure out what’ll work. Then once you have empirical confidence based on the bullets, you concentrate your resources and fire a cannonball. After the cannonball hits, you keep 20 Mile Marching to make the most of your big success.”

<= Just like in the “Lean Startup Way”

Bullets… “Acquisitions would be made with little or no debt, and only when the balance sheet would remain strong after the purchase, thereby ensuring that acquisitions would remain low risk, low cost, and relatively low distraction.”

Calibrated cannonballs… “The 10Xers were much more likely to fire calibrated cannonballs, while the comparison cases had uncalibrated cannonballs flying all over the place.”

“And that’s the underlying principle: empirical validation. Be creative, but validate your creative ideas with empirical experience. You don’t even need to be the one to fire all the bullets; you can learn from the empirical experience of others.”

EMPIRICAL VALIDATION, NOT PREDICTIVE GENIUS

APPLE’S REBIRTH: BULLETS, CANNONBALLS, AND DISCIPLINED CREATIVITY

KEY POINTS ► A “fire bullets, then cannonballs” approach better explains the success of 10X companies than big-leap innovations and predictive genius.

5 LEADING ABOVE THE DEATH LINE

“As soon as there is life there is danger.” —Ralph Waldo Emerson

“In this chapter, we explore three core sets of practices, rooted in the research, for leading and building a great enterprise with productive paranoia: ► Productive Paranoia 1: Build cash reserves and buffers—oxygen canisters—to prepare for unexpected events and bad luck before they happen. ► Productive Paranoia 2: Bound risk—Death Line risk, asymmetric risk, and uncontrollable risk—and manage time-based risk. ► Productive Paranoia 3: Zoom out, then zoom in, remaining hypervigilant to sense changing conditions and respond effectively.”

PRODUCTIVE PARANOIA 1: EXTRA OXYGEN CANISTERS-IT’S WHAT YOU DO BEFORE THE STORM COMES

“A Black Swan is a low-probability disruption, an event that almost no one can foresee, a concept popularized by the writer and financier Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Almost no one can predict a particular Black Swan before it hits, not even our 10Xers. But it is possible to predict that there will be some Black Swan, as yet unspecified.”

“When a calamitous event clobbers an industry or the overall economy, companies fall into one of three categories: those that pull ahead, those that fall behind, and those that die. The disruption itself does not determine your category. You do.”

PRODUCTIVE PARANOIA 2: BOUNDING RISK

“To explore this question, we first identified three primary categories of risk relevant to leading an enterprise: (1) Death Line risk, (2) asymmetric risk, and (3) uncontrollable risk. (See Research Foundations: Risk-Category Analysis.)”

“In short, we found that the 10X companies took less risk than the comparison cases. Certainly, the 10X leaders took risks, but relative to the comparisons in the same environments, they bounded, managed, and avoided risks. The 10X leaders abhorred Death Line risk, shunned asymmetric risk, and steered away from uncontrollable risk.”

PRODUCTIVE PARANOIA 3: ZOOM OUT, THEN ZOOM IN

Zoom Out…. “Sense a change in conditions Assess the time frame: How much time before the risk profile changes? Assess with rigor: Do the new conditions call for disrupting plans? If so, how?”

Zoom In…. “Focus on supreme execution of plans and objectives”

LEADING ABOVE THE DEATH LINE KEY POINTS ► This chapter explores three key dimensions of productive paranoia: 1. Build cash reserves and buffers—oxygen canisters—to prepare for unexpected events and bad luck before they happen. 2. Bound risk—Death Line risk, asymmetric risk, and uncontrollable risk—and manage time-based risk. 3. Zoom out, then zoom in, remaining hypervigilant to sense changing conditions and respond effectively.

6 SMaC

“Most men die of their remedies, and not of their illnesses.” —Molière

The “SMaC” is a formula and the word stands for

–      Specific,

–      Methodical, and

–      Consistent.”

“You can use the term “SMaC” as a descriptor in any number of ways: as an adjective (“ Let’s build a SMaC system”), as a noun (“ SMaC lowers risk”), and as a verb (“ Let’s SMaC this project”).”

“A SMaC recipe is a set of durable operating practices that create a replicable and consistent success formula; it is clear and concrete, enabling the entire enterprise to unify and organize its efforts, giving clear guidance regarding what to do and what not to do. A SMaC recipe reflects empirical validation and insight about what actually works and why. Howard Putnam’s 10 points at Southwest Airlines perfectly illustrates the idea.”

7 RETURN ON LUCK

“The real difference between the 10X and comparison cases wasn’t luck per se but what they did with the luck they got. Adding up all the evidence, we found that the 10X cases were not generally luckier than the comparison cases. The 10X cases and the comparisons both got luck, good and bad, in comparable amounts. The evidence leads us to conclude that luck does not cause 10X success. People do. The critical question is not “Are you lucky?” but “Do you get a high return on luck?”

This is just like straight from Malcolm Gladwell’s “Outliers” …. “His friend Paul Allen just happened to see a cover story in the January 1975 issue of Popular Electronics titled “World’s First Microcomputer Kit to Rival Commercial Models.”

Important about the luck…. “Gates did more with his luck, taking a confluence of lucky circumstances and creating a huge return on his luck. And this is the important difference.”

Return on Luck (ROL)….. “Everyone gets luck, good and bad, but 10X winners make more of the luck they get. The Bill Gates story illustrates the upper-right quadrant, getting a great return on good luck.”

10XERS SHINE: GREAT RETURN ON BAD LUCK

“Canadian NHL players with the “bad luck” of being born in the second half of the year have a higher likelihood of making it into the Hall of Fame than those with the “good luck” of being born in the first half of the year!”

About bad luck…. “Nietzsche famously wrote, “What does not kill me, makes me stronger.” We all get bad luck. The question is how to use that bad luck to make us stronger, to turn it into “one of the best things that ever happened,” to not let it become a psychological prison. And that’s precisely what 10Xers do.”

BAD LUCK, POOR RETURN: THE ONE PLACE YOU REALLY DON’T WANT TO BE

LUCK IS NOT A STRATEGY…. “Life offers no guarantees. But it does offer strategies for managing the odds, indeed, even managing luck. The essence of “managing luck” involves four things: (1) cultivating the ability to zoom out to recognize luck when it happens, (2) developing the wisdom to see when, and when not, to let luck disrupt your plans, (3) being sufficiently well-prepared to endure an inevitable spate of bad luck, and (4) creating a positive return on luck—both good luck and bad—when it comes. Luck is not a strategy, but getting a positive return on luck is.”

“The best leaders we’ve studied maintain a paradoxical relationship to luck. On the one hand, they credit good luck in retrospect for having played a role in their achievements, despite the undeniable fact that others were just as lucky. On the other hand, they don’t blame bad luck for failures, and they hold only themselves responsible if they fail to turn their luck into great results. 10Xers grasp that if they blame bad luck for failure, they capitulate to fate. Equally, they grasp that if they fail to perceive when good luck helped, they might overestimate their own skill and leave themselves exposed when good luck runs dry. There might be more good luck down the road, but 10Xers never count on it.”

EPILOGUE GREAT BY CHOICE

Disease…. “We sense a dangerous disease infecting our modern culture and eroding hope: an increasingly prevalent view that greatness owes more to circumstance, even luck, than to action and discipline—that what happens to us matters more than what we do.”

Responsibility…. “Do we want to build a society and culture that encourage us to believe that we aren’t responsible for our choices and accountable for our performance? Our research evidence stands firmly against this view.”

People….“The factors that determine whether or not a company becomes truly great, even in a chaotic and uncertain world, lie largely within the hands of its people.”

Moment of truth…. “When the moment comes—when we’re afraid, exhausted, or tempted—what choice do we make? Do we abandon our values? Do we give in? Do we accept average performance because that’s what most everyone else accepts?”

Deep within…. “The greatest leaders we’ve studied throughout all our research cared as much about values as victory, as much about purpose as profit, as much about being useful as being successful. Their drive and standards are ultimately internal, rising from somewhere deep inside.

How should we change according to the book?

Start the 20 Mile March:

1. Clear performance markers (tavoitteet).

2. Self-imposed constraints.

3. Appropriate to the specific enterprise.

4. Largely within the company’s control to achieve (saavutettavissa).

5. A proper timeframe—long enough to manage, yet short enough to have teeth (aikaikkuna).

6. Imposed by the company upon itself.

7. Achieved with high consistency (osumatarkkuus).

What should I personally do?

“Companies, leaders, organizations, and societies do not thrive on chaos. But they can thrive in chaos.”

Summary

The book in six words – ”When the going gets weird, the weird become CEO.” (Hunter S. Thompson quote with a slight twist)

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Gladwell: David & Goliath

About the book

The expectations of the book are high due to his “Tipping point” book. David & Goliath is not an disappointment. And if I would have read this as a first Gladwell book and after that the Tipping point I might have found this book better. The thing is that I’m trying to say that Tipping point is a great book. But anyways, don’t get hesitant. Malcom Gladwell’s book about David and Goliath is worth reading. Go!  

How was the actual reading of the book?

This book is for everybody. People who are interested about science, it is for parents, it is for business people and it is for people interested in life in large.

Gladwell tells his story through nine different characters. Those range from modern people to historic figures. Some of the portraits are very detailed and some rather lengthy. 

Malcom Gladwell explains how one should not take the apparent as a fact. He argues that we should look beyond the apparent. For example how parenting economics influence parents ability to raise their children. Or how Impressionists found their place in the world of art. Or how relative deprivation influences the suicide rate of different nations. 

Secondly Gladwell states that underdogs have opportunities that are not apparent. And underdogs have nothing to lose. Famous underdogs are Lawrence of Arabia who defeated Turks. Martin Luther King who defeated racism. And Ferrari which defeated Ford in Le Mans year after year (not an example in the book…;-)  

What are the key learnings of the book? 

Malcom Gladwell has two central ideas and a hint.

1) “Giants are not what we think they are”:

–      “Giants are not what we think they are” is a valuable lesson in the world of Internet.

–      All the current Internet goliaths where actually originally davids. Take any of the top ten Internet sites which did not exist twenty years ago.

2) “Underdogs win all the time”, but underdog strategies are hard:

–      Underdogs and opportunities are packaged for example in a form of dyslexia. Dyslexia is a desirable difficulty and it can be turned into advantage.

–      Not all difficulties are negative, because humans can adapt their behavior. For example a dyslexic became top courthouse lawyer because of compensation learning i.e. his ability to listen and memorize carefully.  

–      But the underdog strategies are hard, because those are not to be found from any books. One have to discover those by themselves.

For giants there is a valuable lesson to be learned:

–      “There comes a point where the best-intentioned application of power and authority begins to backfire.”

–      Northern Ireland is a sad example how power is misused and what went wrong the usage of power.

–      Gladwell advises that one should carefully evaluate how and where to use ones power. And are there other means to an end?

How should we change according to the book?

Goliaths should learn their limits of power and Davids should deploy a suitable strategy to become a giant.

What should I personally do? 

Evaluate ones desirable difficulties. 

Summary

Malcolm Gladwell’s book tells a story about the art of battling giants. He makes his points thoroughly and not only leaning to success stories. In this kind of book it’s important that the reader can relate to the topics. That’s why Gladwell has succeeded again. He has taken into consideration the main target group – his readers.  

The book in six words – Everybody can be David, not Goliath. 

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Kees van der Heijden: Scenarios – The Art of Strategic Conversation

About the book

This book is the book in the field of scenario planning. The first time I read it was approximately 21 years ago. I was forced to read it again, because Risto Siilasmaa told in his “Paranoid Optimism” book that he is devoted user of scenarios. Maybe because of Siilasmaa’s book the scenario planning methods will see some kind of renaissance. Anyways I’m ready for the scenario planning tsunami.

van der Heijden wrote the book for “practitioners of strategic management” who could make thoughtful decisions and they can “take account of longer-term aims in their daily decision making”. The aim is superior overall results.

What are the key learnings?

Scenarios are memories of the future. Scenarios are also always a testbed for something. Scenarios can be both organizational and leadership tools. There are two types of scenarios:

–      External scenarios which are “intended to be representative of the ranges of possible futures”.

–      Internal scenario is “a causal line of argument, linking an action option with a goal”.

Scenario planning is an organizational learning process which aims to build common understanding and base for different projects which are aimed to make the organization fit for future. A solid strategy requires to based on the following elements:

–      Aims of the organization

–      Assessment of the organization

–      Assessment of the environment, current and future

–      Assessment of the fit between the two

–      Development of policies, decisions and actions

Scenario planning provides a structure, it identifies uncertainty, it creates dialectic conversation, it taps into knowledge, it brings external perspectives and forms basis for corporate strategic considerations. The scenario planner “is to create a more adaptive organization which recognizes change and uncertainty, and uses it to its advantage”. (S)he is also a process facilitator who provides key stories to become part of the company language. (S)he also helps to build a successful competitive strategy that is an original invention. Scenarios a needed to:

1)   Prepare the organization to generate projects and decisions “that are more robust under a variety of alternative futures”.

2)   Building better future.

3)   Enhancing corporate perception.

4)   Energizing management.

Shell has always been forerunner of scenario planning.

Even today you can find scenarios developed by their internal scenario team (https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios.html). Shell’s experience has highlighted that:

–      Sound strategies reduce the complexity of the management task.

–      Devote management’s time on strategic conversation.

–      Incorporate common sense and good strategy.

Three different paradigms within strategic management:

1)   The rationalist school tries to get as close as possible to the best solution or one right answer. The IBM mainframe business case is a classic example of this school.

2)   The evolutionary school believes that strategy is emergent in it’s behavior.

3)   The processual school is in between the two previous schools and it is more like a living organism. This school is quite close to Lean way of development by learning loops.

Scenario planning needs a Business Idea.

It is the mental model of forces behind the organisation’s current and future success. The Business Idea has to have profit potential and distinctive competencies. The ideal Business Idea is:

–      A new way of creating value for customer

–      A combination of competencies

–      Unique value

–      Offering creates value to both seller and buyer.

Scenario planning aims to strengthen Business Idea. Scenarios are a windtunnel for the Business Idea. Can it stand the winds of future?

Fundamental source of distinctiveness are:

1)   Networked people.

2)   Embedded processes.

3)   Investment in reputation.

4)   Legal protection.

5)   Specialized assets.

Solid Business Idea is built on competitive advantage, differentiation and cost leadership. But uncertainty in the forms of risks and unknowables will be on the path for sure. Scenario planning will definitely help managers to bear the uncertainty. And not all uncertainty is uncomfortable. Scenarios will bring understanding of the environment, put structural uncertainty on the agenda and scenarios will help the organization to become more adaptable. In a way scenario planning is a risk management tool.

Iceberg analysis is a vital tool for scenario planning, because with the Iceberg analysis you will identify events, trends & patterns and structures that will affect to your business. Typically future analysis is done by forecasting which will not take into consideration events that have no historical data available. “Scenarios let the decision makers look not just an outcomes, but also at the driving forces which could move the business one way or the other.” For example could taxi industry have been able to build a scenario where Uber will rock the boat. And if yes could the taxi industry have made some pre-emptive strikes before Uber hit the fan.  

Scenario planner has to take two elements into consideration – know you customer and plausibility. The scenarios are made to be used by the customer and (s)he should be able to execute according. Secondly (s)he should be able to see that the potential scenarios are plausible. Scenarios are “a bridge between existing understanding and new alternative future framework”. 

Scenario analysis should follow these principles:

–      Start with the platform of the existing “consensus view”.

–      Recognise the uncertainty and complexity.

–      Stretch by the introduction of new knowledge from inside and outside the organization.

–      Provide structure to seemingly unrelated environmental insights.

–      Time limits will kill creativity.

First step

In the first step in building scenarios the planners typically use:

–      Customer insight,

–      Group brainstorming,

–      SWOT,

–      Individual interviews and

–      Feedback.

Second step

Second step is to essential to find the driving forces – external and internal. “September” formula is used to categorize the environment:

–      Societal development

–      Economic development

–      Political development

–      Technological development.

Scenario planner needs also analysis of the competing forces (Porter):

–      Generic competing forces in the industry

–      Relative power of suppliers

–      Relative power of buyers

–      Relative power of potential new entrants

–      Potential influence of substitute products.

After these steps one has to build a scenario agenda which has a list of four to five broad themes. These themes are typically something that the client is concerned about. The themes should be very independent. The scenario horizon can be years or in the major capital investment it can also be up to 20 years.

While building the scenarios the management team will have time to evaluate that what does drive success in the future. Typically the drivers of the business success are:

–      The customer value created.

–      The competitive advantage.

–      The Distinctive Competencies.

–      A positive feedback loop. 

Re-build Business Idea

After the scenarios the management team needs to re-build the Business Idea. The process behind it is the following:

1.     Deciding on the company’s Competitive Advantage

2.    Addressing the Devil’s Advocate question (what are the unique factors of Competitive Advantage)

3.    Developing a cause and effect picture/diagram

4.    Completion of the diagram

5.    Identifying the Distinctive Competencies

6.    Cleaning up the diagram

7.    Review of the Business Idea (3E test, SWOT)

8.    Drawing out the essentials

9.    Strategic implications

After the Business Idea is reviewed with the help of scenarios the management team can start analyzing it’s position in the playing field (competitive positioning):

1.    Identifying potential customers

2.    Testing the business definitions

3.    Identifying the competitors

4.    Competitive cost driver analysis

5.    Competitor response profiles

6.    Summarising the most important competitors.

 A Scenario Team and the project

The team working with the scenarios should be multi-disciplinary and embracing diversity team. They should promote disbelief, think the unthinkable, let intuition and premonitions flow freely. The target for the team should be novelty and relevance to the client. For the client most important part is to deliver on time. Developing scenarios should be seen as a project. The work is typically done in workshops. Typically off-site workshops taking two to three days. They should also have a dedicated workroom or space. The team uses data to find common and historical variables. These datapoints will turn into driving forces and conceptualization of variables along with the Iceberg analysis (events, trends, patterns and structures). 

After the scenario team has gathered the data – the team will start formulizing scenarios which has a consistent story line. The story lines can be built based on

1)   Inductive (used with divergent client group),

2)   Deductive (used when client group thinks cohesively) and

3)   incremental (used in step by step approach) scenario structuring methods.

The scenarios are tested by:

–      Quantification (causal models) or

–      Actor testing (most important actors in business environment).

Scenarios are not one size fits all. Those can be:

–      Surprise-free scenarios.

–      Challenge scenarios.

–      Phantom scenarios.

Scope of the scenario projects can be:

–      Strategy projects.

–      Project development.

–      Short-term/tactical decision making.

–      Crisis management.

–      Exploration (consensus building) scenarios.

–      Morale building projects.

How should we change according to the book?

“The strength of every Business Idea will deteriorate over time with the depreciation of their Distinctive Competencies.” To address this fact the scenarios should be used to:

–      Identify and evaluate options

–      Build scenario/option matrix

–      Test the end-results with the most important stakeholders and actors

–      Integrate the findings into the overall strategy.

Plan for action:

1.    Define current position

2.    Define desired future state

3.    Define steps to make transition

4.    Execute

Scenarios should be guiding the strategic conversation.

What should I personally do?

Find the Radiolinja’s scenario planning results.

Summary

The book in six words – ”Business Idea is not valid forever”

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Siilasmaa: Paranoidi optimisti

Kirjasta

Missä olit kun Stephen Elop julkisti Windows Phone –strategian? Minä muistan elävästi missä olin silloin. Tässä kirjassa voit palata niihin hetkiin kun suomalainen moninkertainen matkapuhelinalan voittaja myytiin pois.

Minkälainen kirja oli?

Kirja sopii lukijoille, jotka ovat kiinnostuneet lukemaan suomalaisen huippujohtajan menetelmistä, tavoista toimia ja johtamisfilosofiasta. Se on myös harvinainen sisäpiiriläisen kokemusperäinen selostus Nokia-tarinan käänteistä 2010-luvulla.

Jokainen johtamistyötä tekevä voi samaistua tilanteisiin, joita kirjassa esitellään olkoonkin että Siilasmaan mittaluokka on vailla vertaa. Se mikä on uniikkia kirjassa, niin on Siilasmaan omien tuntemusten esitteleminen. Se yhdistettynä Nokian yrityshistoriaan suorastaan pakotti minut lukemaan kirjan yhdellä istumalla. 

Mitkä ovat kirjan keskeiset ideat? 

Kirjan kolme keskeistä ideaa ovat:

1)   Skenaariotyöskentelyn paluu osaksi ylimmän johdon työskentelyä.

2)   God lives in details.

3)   Kurjasta tilanteesta huolimatta yritys voi aina keksiä itsensä uudelleen.

Kirjan tarkoituksen Siilasmaa kiteyttää seuraavasti: ”tärkeä syy siihen, miksi päätin ryhtyä työhön, on se, että Nokian tarina ansaitsee tulla kerrotuksi.” Ja siitä pitää olla kahta kautta kiitollinen. Nokia kiinnostaa meitä ja harva sisäpiiriläinen paljastaa itseään sekä tapahtumia näin tiivistunnelmaisesti.

Risto Siilasmaa on optimisti, joka suhtautuu vainoharhaisesti tulevaisuuteen. Tulevaisuutta ja tekemistään hän hallinnoi kahdella eri työkalulla – OneNote-muistilistoilla sekä skenaariotyöskentelyllä. Samaten Siilasmaa paljastaa kirjan sivuilla olevansa pikkutarkka yksityiskohtien ystävä.

Julkisuudessa on esiintynyt paljon klikkiuutisotsikkoja. Avoimuuttaan hän perustelee seuraavasti: ”Minulle olisi huomattavasti helpompaa olla käsittelemättä tiettyjä yksityiskohtia siitä mitä Nokiassa tapahtui, mutta se lasikatto on rikottava. 

·     Jos yksikin yhtiö pelastuu näillä sivuilla jakamieni kokemusten avulla, työni on maksanut vaivan. 

·     Jos edes muutama hallitus ja johtoryhmä lähentyvät ja oppivat toimimaan paremmin yhdessä, sekin olisi kelpo palkkio. 

·     Jos suuret yhtiöt muuttuvat yrittäjähenkisemmiksi, se olisi toiveideni täyttymys, ja jos pienet startup-yritykset oppivat suunnittelemaan tulevaisuutta systemaattisemmin, kirjalla on ollut positiivinen vaikutus.”

Siilasmaassa ja hänen tavassaan toimia yksilönä on paljon ihailtavaa. Mm. ”olen myös oppinut näinä vuosina paljon ja haluan jakaa saamiani oppeja. Oppimiseen kuuluu aina älyllinen rehellisyys, ja rehellisyys saattaa tuottaa joskus tuskaa. Oppimiseen kannustavan yrityskulttuurin vastakohta on kulttuuri, jossa huonot uutiset tukahdutetaan, johtajien tuhoisaa toimintaa suvaitaan eikä uusia asioita kokeilla, koska epäonnistumisesta rangaistaan.

Johtamistyyli

Omaa johtamistyyliään Siilasmaa kutsuu yrittäjämäiseksi johtajuudeksi. Hänen mukaan: ”yrittäjämäinen johtajuus tarkoittaa käytettävissä olevien resurssien arvioimista ja niiden käyttämistä parhaalla mahdollisella tavalla yhtiön suorituskyvyn ja kilpailukyvyn kehittämiseksi. Yrittäjämäinen johtaminen tarkoittaa myös oppimista – jokaisen haasteen, jokaisen ongelman, jokaisen huonon uutisen näkemistä mahdollisuutena oppia ja kehittyä. Olen saanut oppia paljon.

Siilasmaan opit tiivistyvät seuraaviin kuuteen kohtaan:

·     Opin, että riittävän paranoidi asenne ja suunnitelmien tekeminen pahimman varalta itse asiassa mahdollistavat optimistisen suhtautumisen tarjolle tuleviin tilaisuuksiin. 

·     Opin, että erityisesti kiperissä tilanteissa luottamus on öljy, joka pitää rattaat pyörimässä, ja liima, joka pitää kaiken koossa. 

·     Opin, että omistajuuden ja vastuullisuuden tunnetta on luottamuksen lailla vaalittava jatkuvasti. 

·     Opin myös, että yrittäjämäisen johtajuuden oppien valama vankka perusta antaa rohkeutta suuriin unelmiin – jopa suurempiin kuin aiemmin olisi uskaltanut kuvitellakaan.

·     Opin myös taitoja, joilla oppeja toteutetaan käytännössä.

·     Lisäksi opin jotakin onnesta, hyvästä tuurista. 

Kuinka opin johtamaan paranoidin optimismin avulla?

”Paranoidi optimismi on ajattelutapa, jossa valppaus ja aimo annos todellisuudentajuista pelkoa yhdistyvät optimistiseen tulevaisuudenasenteeseen. Paranoidi optimisti tarkastelee tulevaisuutta skenaarioiden valossa. (Kerron skenaariotyöskentelystä tarkemmin yhdennessätoista luvussa.) Paranoidi ajattelu herkistää omat ja johdettavien ihmisten vaistot, mutta jatkuva paranoia lannistaa ja on epäterveellistä, ellei sitä tasapainoteta optimismilla, joka perustuu vaihtoehtoisten skenaarioiden tunnistamiseen ja tutkimiseen. Paradoksaalisesti optimismi on suoraa seurausta paranoidista ajattelusta. Paranoidi ajattelu auttaa näkemään ennalta pahimmat vaihtoehdot, jolloin on mahdollista suunnitella, miten ne vältetään. Kun johtaja totuttaa lähipiirinsä miettimään pelottaviakin skenaarioita, huonot uutiset eivät tule järkytyksenä, koska pahimman vaihtoehdon vaikutusten lieventämistä on pohdittu jo etukäteen. Jos johtaja ei ole optimisti, hän ei pysty kannustamaan muita. Toisaalta, jos ihmisiä ei auteta torjumaan pahimpia tulevaisuudennäkymiä, yritykselle ei kehity resilienssiä. Olennaisinta on, että paranoidi ajattelu antaa varaa optimismiin. Juuri tosiasioihin ankkuroitu optimismi on se, mitä johtajalta odotetaan erityisesti kriisitilanteissa. Kriisissä yritykseltä saattaa jäädä huomaamatta, että käynnissä on useita samanaikaisia tapahtumaketjuja, ja sen sijaan ne kaikki tulkitaan yhdeksi kausaaliseksi kokonaisuudeksi.”

Yrittäjämäinen johtajuus

1.   ”Vastuuntunto.

a.   Ensimmäinen ja tärkein asia on välittää – välittää aidosti – kaikesta, mitä tapahtuu. Yrittäjän tavoin ajatteleva ihminen kantaa vastuuta kaikesta. Hän välittää aidosti ja osoittaa sen teoillaan selkeästi.

2.   Tosiasioiden tunnustaminen.

a.   Huonojen uutisten vastaanottaminen positiivisessa hengessä on ainoa tapa varmistaa, että johtajalle ja koko tiimille kerrotaan asioiden todellinen tila. Tosiasioille ei pidä koskaan suuttua eikä varsinkaan niille ihmisille, jotka niitä kertovat. Mitä huonompi uutinen johtajalle kerrotaan, sitä kiitollisemmin siihen tulisi suhtautua. Näin ihmisiä kannustetaan välittämään huonot uutiset hyvissä ajoin jatkossakin.

3.   Sinnikkyys.

a.   Tosiasioista ei tarvitse pitää. Mutta erityisesti silloin, kun tosiasiat eivät miellytä, ne on kohdattava ja ratkaistava viipymättä. Yrittäjällä ei ole varaa antaa periksi. Jokin ratkaisu on olemassa aina. 

4.   Riskienhallinta.

a.   Yrittäjä ottaa riskejä. Mitään merkittävää ei saavuteta, jos ei tutkita ja vallata uusia alueita. Riskien ottaminen ei tarkoita hyppäämistä veteen sokkona, aivan kuten riskien hallinta ei tarkoita niiden välttämistä. Riskienhallinta ei myöskään tarkoita riskien minimoimista vaan sitä, että valitaan silmät auki ja analyyttisesti, millaisia riskejä otetaan. Luettelo tehtävistä asioista on tärkeä, mutta luettelo asioista, jotka päätetään jättää tekemättä, on toisinaan vieläkin tärkeämpi.

5.   Opinjano.

a.   Jokainen haaste, jokainen ongelma ja jokainen huono uutinen ovat tilaisuuksia oppia ja kehittyä. Ole opinjanoinen ja yritä tartuttaa se muihinkin. Jos lakkaa oppimasta, lakkaa pian elämästä.

6.   Herpaantumaton fokus.

a.   Kun oikein mietitään, hyvin harva asia on lopulta todella tärkeä. Tavalla tai toisella kaikki tiivistyy yrityksen tuotteisiin ja asiakkaisiin. Kun fokus on selvillä, kaikki toiminta on mietittävä ja suunniteltava sen näkökulmasta. Harhapoluille on helppo lipsahtaa.

7.   Katse taivaanrantaan.

a.   Pidä katseesi koko ajan horisontissa, myös silloin kun sammutat palonalkuja jalkojesi juuressa. Tämä on erityisen vaikeaa johtajalle. 

8.   Mukavien ja arvostamiesi ihmisten tiimi.

a.   Yrittäjä tietää, että hän joko voittaa tai häviää yhdessä tiiminsä kanssa. 

9.   Kysy miksi.

a.   Tämä on hyvin yksinkertainen asia, joka unohtuu usein. Meillä on tapana kysyä aivan liian usein ”mitä?” erityisesti verrattuna siihen, kuinka usein kysymme ”miksi?” Esimerkiksi kun tiimi esittelee strategiaansa strategiatyöpajassa, tyypillisin sille esitetty kysymys on ”mitä”: Mitkä ovat tärkeimmät tavoitteenne? Mikä on toimintasuunnitelmanne? Kysymys, joka pakottaa ihmiset todella ajattelemaan, on sen sijaan: ”Miksi tämä on mielestänne hyvä strategia?”

10. Älä lakkaa unelmoimasta.

a.   Robert Kennedyn (ja alun perin George Bernard Shaw’n) kuuluisan toteamuksen sanoin: ”Jotkut näkevät asiat sellaisina kuin ne ovat ja kysyvät miksi. Minä unelmoin sellaisesta, mitä ei ole koskaan ollutkaan, ja kysyn miksi ei.””

Yrittäjämäisessä johtamisessa on paranoidin optimismin voimaa

·     ”Yrittäjämäisen johtajuuden ydin edellyttää paranoidia optimismia. Paranoidi optimismi kuulostaa ristiriitaiselta, mutta ei ole sitä. Kyse on kolikon kahdesta eri puolesta.

·     Paranoidi optimismi tarkoittaa sitä, että kaiken pelon ja hämmennyksen keskellä voi olla optimisti, koska on vakuuttunut siitä, että käsillä oleviin ongelmiin on olemassa ratkaisu. Samalla on kuitenkin oltava paranoidi sen suhteen, mikä voi kenties mennä vikaan. Näin varaudutaan ongelmiin, sillä ongelmia on aina, myös silloin kun muut väittävät, ettei niitä ole. Kun ongelmia tunnistetaan, selviää, miten ne voidaan välttää tai niiden vaikutuksia minimoida. Vaikka ongelmien ennalta ehkäiseminen ei onnistuisikaan, optimisti on vuorenvarma, että niistä selvitään.

·     Paranoidi optimismi on oivallinen tapa selvitä vaikeista ajoista. Valppaus ja aimo annos realistista pelkoa yhdistyvät myönteiseen asenteeseen ja tulevaisuudenuskoon.

·     Käytännössä paranoidi optimismi vaatii johtajaa perehtymään mitä erilaisimpiin skenaarioihin: parhaaseen ja pahimpaan mahdolliseen vaihtoehtoon ja kaikkeen siltä väliltä. ”

Yrittäjäksi

Kirjoittaja kuuluu siihen oikeaan ikäpolveen kuin muut Piilaakson muut high tech-yrittäjät, jotka löysivät itsensä tietokoneiden parista ja ponnisti sitä kautta yrittäjyyteen. ”Olin tietokonehullu. Olin ostanut ensimmäisen tietokoneeni – Commodore 64:n – teini-ikäisenä palkkarahoilla.” Kirjaa lukiessa tulee mieleen Gladwellin ”Outliers”-kirja, jossa hän kuvaa eritystiä menestystä aikaansaaneita yksilöitä seuraavasti “to become successful you need:

·     Accumulative advantage,

·     You have to be skilled-talented-driven -type of person and

·      (Second) chance.

Toisekseen Siilasmaa noudatti ”Kirjoittamalla yrittäjäksi”-kaavaa, niinkuin ystäväni Ville Tolvanen. ”Kirjoitin seikkailupelin tekemisestä artikkelin ja lähetin sen Mikrobitti-lehdelle. Artikkeli kasvoi artikkelisarjaksi, ja pian kirjoitin juttuja Mac-lehtiin, PC-lehtiin ja tietokonepelilehtiin.”

Nokian matkapuhelinliiketoiminta

Minun mielestä kirjan kovin väite liittyi yhtiön strategiaan: ”Huolia yhtiön strategiasta ei kuitenkaan otettu vakavasti, vaihtoehtoja ei analysoitu eikä niistä edes keskusteltu, ei ainakaan hallituksen kokouksissa. Omat yritykseni ottaa asioita puheeksi sivuutettiin.”

Kirjaa lukiessa on hyvä muistaa, että mitkä olivat juurisyyt Nokian matkapuhelin liiketoiminnan vastoinkäymisiin Siilasmaan mukaan:

·     Epäonnistunut tuotejohtaminen ja –hallinta.

o  ”2000-luvun ensimmäisen vuosikymmenen puolivälissä Nokia kuitenkin toi markkinoille joukoittain Symbian-laitteita joka vuosi, ja uusissa malleissa oli usein varta vasten räätälöity versio käyttöjärjestelmästä. Seurauksena oli häkellyttävä määrä rinnakkaisia puhelimia ja ohjelmistoversioita, outoja erityispiirteitä ja yleistä sekasotkua. Symbian ei ollut selvästi hahmottuva puu, vaan monihaarainen – monien mielestä suorastaan läpitunkematon – ryteikkö, johon jokainen sen kanssa tekemisissä ollut sotkeutui ja takertui.”

·     Nokia näki itsensä puhelinvalmistajana.

o  ”Nokia piti edelleen käyttöjärjestelmää alisteisena laitteille eikä suinkaan mobiilimaailman ytimenä.”

·     Disruption tarve puuttui.

o  ”Vika ei ollut siinä, etteikö Nokia olisi toiminut oikein, vaan siinä, että se toimi oikein liian pitkään.” 

Konkurssit ja muut vaikeudet yritystoiminnassa ovat verrannollisia lentkokoneonnettomuuksiin, jossa selittäviä tekijöitä on useita – väsyneet lentäjät, huonot sääolosuhteet, teknisiä vikoja jne. Nokialla ne olivat 

·     Kumppanuuksien hoito: ”F-Secure teki tietoturvaohjelmia myös Windowsiin, Linuxiin, joihinkin Unix-versioihin ja Applen Macintosh-tuotteisiin, ja niihin verrattuna työskentely Nokian kanssa oli kuin päivä ja yö. Ja Symbian oli vasta vaikeuksien jäävuoren huippu.”

·     ”Lakiasioissa Nokia toimi hitaasti ja byrokraattisesti (kuten toki moni muukin maailmanlaajuinen suuryritys).” 

·     Aggressiivinen kustannustietoisuus. ”Yhteistyökumppanien kanssa Nokiaa näytti kiinnostavan vain ohjelmistojen hankkiminen mahdollisimman pienin kustannuksin sen sijaan, että olisi rakennettu kestäviä kumppanuussuhteita toimivien tuotteiden kehittämiseksi. Se oli mielestäni väärä tapa toimia, sillä ohjelmiston kaltainen innovatiivinen tuote on ratkaiseva osa lopputuotteen kilpailukykyä.”

Siilasmaa kuvaa kuinka hän palvoi ja ihaili Nokiaa yhtiönä ”Teroitin usein itselleni, että Nokian palveluksessa oli tuhansittain Suomen – ja maailman – parhaita ja luovimpia ihmisiä. Täytyihän heidän tajuta tilanne minua paremmin. Loppujen lopuksi olin vain yhden pienen ja suhteellisen tuntemattoman yrityksen johtaja ja Nokia oli jättiläinen, joka viitoitti koko maailman tietä tulevaisuuteen. Yritin ottaa heistä esimerkkiä. Halusin oppia heidän salaisuutensa.”

Ollilasta

Jorma Ollilan roolista Siilasmaalla on paljon sanottavaa kirjassa. Esim. Ollila ”teki minulle selväksi, ettei hallituksen ollut tarpeen puuttua ”operatiiviseen toimintaan”. Pelko hallituksen ryhtymisestä ”operatiiviseksi” on ase, jota voidaan käyttää koska tahansa ”asioihin puuttuvaa” hallitusta vastaan. Pelkkä syytös liiallisesta operatiivisuudesta riittää. Väitettä on hyvin vaikea osoittaa paikkansapitämättömäksi, ja niin hallitus yleensä perääntyy. Varsinkin silloin, kun puheenjohtaja syyttää kysymyksiä esittävää hallituksen jäsentä puuttumisesta operatiiviseen toimintaan, vallitsevaa tilannetta on todella vaikea muuttaa.” Sen sijaan Olli-Pekka Kallasvuon tai muun johtoryhmän osuutta Nokian matkapuhelinliiketoimintaan käsitellään melko vähän.

Työskentelystä

Elähdyttävää on, että kirjassa nousee esille erilaisia tietoiskuja yritystoimintaan liittyen. Esimerkiksi mitä hallitus tekee?

·     ”Hallitus edustaa yrityksen osakkeenomistajia (poikkeuksena ne maat, joissa hallitus edustaa myös muita sidosryhmiä, kuten työntekijöitä). Tämän vuoksi osakkeenomistajat valitsevat tavallisesti hallituksen jäsenet yhtiökokouksessa. Yhtiön osakkeenomistajien edustajina hallituksen tärkeimpänä tehtävänä pidetään toimitusjohtajan palkkaamista ja erottamista.

·     Hallituksen tehtävä on yrityksen strategian hyväksyminen. Hallitus ei siis laadi strategiaa vaan hyväksyy sen.

·     Kolmanneksi tärkein tehtävä on varmistaa, että yhtiötä johdetaan hyvin. Tämä tarkoittaa usein yhteistyötä tilintarkastajan kanssa sen varmistamiseksi, että yhtiön talous on kunnossa ja että yhtiön hallinto, tilinpito, lakiasiat ja henkilöstöasiat hoidetaan asianmukaisesti.

·     Neljäs tehtävä on päättää palkoista ja palkkioista erityisesti yhtiön ylimmän johdon osalta.”

Tai hallitustyöskentelystä. ”Yleensä hallitus kokoontuu korkeintaan kerran kuukaudessa, ja keskimäärin kokouksia lienee noin kuusi kertaa vuodessa. Pienen yrityksen kokous kestää ehkä kolme tuntia, ja suuryrityksen kokous saattaa kestää kaksi päivää. Kokouksessa käsiteltävien asioiden määrä voi olla hyvinkin suuri, ja kokouksen alla on joskus luettava jopa satoja sivuja ennakkomateriaalia. Uudelta hallituksen jäseneltä kestää usein 8–12 kuukautta oppia tuntemaan yritys kunnolla.”

Kolme kysymystä faktojen selvittämiseksi:

·     Puhummeko oikeista asioista?

·     Keskustelemmeko oikeista aiheista oikein?

·     Onko avainjohtajien näkemyksiä lupa haastaa?

Myrkyllisen menestyksen oireet

Tämä on tärkeä oppi ellei melkein tärkein oppi koko kirjassa – myrkyllisen menestyksen neljän oireen tunnistaminen:

·     ”Huonot uutiset eivät tavoita sinua tai tiimiäsi. Emme vaatineet johtoryhmää selittämään, miksi epäonnistuimme. Joka kerta, kun epäonnistumisen syyt jätettiin selvittämättä pohjia myöten, vahvistimme johtoryhmän jäsenten omaksumaa käytöstapaa ja annoimme heille roolimallin, jota he saattoivat toistaa omissa tiimeissään.

·     Tiimi ei etsi huonoja uutisia eikä kovia faktoja. Tiedon on kuljettava kahteen suuntaan. Huonojen uutisten on saavutettava johto, ja johdon on myös etsittävä huonoja uutisia.

·     Päätöksiä lykätään ja vesitetään jatkuvasti. jokainen on vakuuttunut, että hänellä on veto-oikeus missä tahansa päätöksessä, mutta kenestäkään ei tunnu, että hänellä on oikeus ajaa jokin päätös läpi. 

·     Usein on olemassa vain yksi suunnitelma ilman vaihtoehtoja.”

Kriisin aikana

·     ”Symboleissa on voimaa.

o  Jokaisen johtajan, erityisesti jos hän on ulkopuolelta palkattu muutosjohtaja, on syytä kiinnittää erityishuomiota symboleihin ja oltava varovainen sen suhteen, mitä hän muuttaa, miten hän sen tekee, millaisen viestin muutos välittää ja miten se välitetään.

·     Punainen joukkue.

o  Kun on tehtävä yrityksen kohtalon kannalta ratkaiseva päätös, kannattaa harkita yhden tai kahden ryhmän jäsenen nimittämistä punaiseksi joukkueeksi. Sen tehtävänä on keskittyä huonoihin puoliin, tuoda esiin riskit ja pitää kaikkien jalat maassa. Meidän tapauksessamme kaikki olivat sinisten puolella.

·     Viesti superaktiivisesti – mutta mieti, mitä sanot.

o  Jälkikäteen arvioituna Stephen ja viestintätiimi tekivät virheen jättäessään huomiotta sen mahdollisuuden, että muistiosta tulisi maailmanlaajuinen ilmiö (palava lautta-muistiosta).

·     Minusta yrittäjän ei pidä koskaan luovuttaa.”

Selviytymistaistelusta 

·     ”Ensinnäkin kustannuksia on leikattava niin paljon, että yrityksellä on mahdollisuus selviytyä ja se voi lisätä investointeja tulevaisuuden kannalta tärkeimmille kehitysalueille. Me teimme tämän irtisanomalla henkilöstöä ja karsimalla voittoa tuottamattomia toimintoja. 

·     Toiseksi on jatkettava ydintoimintojen pitkän tähtäimen kehittämistä tavoitteena nopeampi kasvu ja parempi kannattavuus. Me valitsimme ne markkina-alueet, joiden katerakenne oli paras (Japanin, Etelä-Korean ja Yhdysvallat), ja asetimme etusijalle näillä alueilla toimivien asiakkaiden tarpeisiin räätälöidyn tutkimuksen, tuotekehityksen ja asiakaspalvelut huonompaa katetta tuottavimarkkinoiden kustannuksella. 

·     Kolmanneksi on investoitava tulevaisuuteen. Meidän tapauksessamme se tarkoitti 5G:tä ja pilvipalveluja. Työ käynnistyi vuoden 2011 lopulla ja alkoi tuottaa tuloksia vuoden 2013 alkupuolella.

·     Ja mikä tietenkin tärkeintä, on pidettävä huolta ihmisistä! Erityisesti kriisiaikoina. Kun ihmisiä on pakko irtisanoa, heitä on kohdeltava kunnioittavasti, ja jäljelle jääville on annettava runsaasti syitä luottaa siihen, että valittu tie on oikea.”

Kultaiset säännöt

Siilasmaa teki yhdessä oman hallituksensa kanssa kultaiset säännöt:

·     Oleta aina, että muut toimivat hyvissä aikeissa. Ole avoin, rehellinen ja suorapuheinen ja edellytä samaa muilta.

o  Toimintafilosofiamme perustuu tietoon ja analyysiin. Pyrimme aina kartoittamaan analyyttisesti yhtiön vaihtoehtoiset tulevaisuudenskenaariot ja yritämme ymmärtää kunkin skenaarion synty- ja vaikutusmekanismit. Tämän vuoksi hallitustyölle on uhrattava toisinaan enemmän aikaa kuin muissa hallituksissa, mutta uskomme, että vaivannäkö tuottaa tulosta pitkällä aikavälillä.

·     Perehdy yhtiön liiketoimintaan ja pidä yllä tiivistä vuoropuhelua yhtiön johdon kanssa. Johdolta on lupa odottaa tukea pyrkimyksille oppia lisää sekä avointa, suoraa ja paneutuvaa suhtautumista hallitukseen.

·     Ole valmis keskustelemaan ja väittelemään, mutta tee se asiapohjalta, kiihkottomasti ja kunnioittavasti. Tue tehtyjä päätöksiä, vaikka näkökantasi ei olisikaan voittanut.

·     Johtoryhmä on haastettava päättäväisesti ja kunnioittavasti pitäen kuitenkin mielessä, että hallitus menestyy vain silloin, kun johtoryhmäkin menestyy.

·     Pyrimme kehittymään jatkuvasti kaikessa mitä teemme. Kaikkien hallituksen jäsenten odotetaan osallistuvan työn, työkalujen ja toimintatapojen kehittämiseen unohtamatta tapaa, jolla työskentelemme tiiminä.

·     Kannustamme yritysjohtoa ja hallituksen jäseniä olemaan tekemisissä toistensa kanssa myös hallituksen kokousten ulkopuolella.

·     Hallitus toimii mahdollisimman epämuodollisesti ja asiakeskeisesti.

Siilasmaan hallitus keskittyi seuraaviin, jotka ”ovat keskeisiä asioita missä tahansa yrityksessä, mutta erityisesti kriisiyrityksessä:

·     Tekniikkaan,

·     tuotteisiin,

·     henkilöstöön,

·     asiakkaisiin ja

·     kilpailijoihin sekä

·     yrityksen kilpailukykyyn nyt ja tulevaisuudessa.

Luottamuksesta

Luottamuksesta – ”luottamus perustuu kahteen kulmakiveen: läpinäkyvyyteen ja tasa-arvoon. Läpinäkyvyys tarkoittaa tiedon jakamista, systemaattisen analyysin kehittämistä ja hallituksen jäsenten kannustamista keskusteluihin toimitusjohtajan ja johtoryhmän kanssa sekä käytyjen keskustelujen asiasisällön jakamista kaikille. Tasa-arvo merkitsee monenlaisia asioita alkaen siitä, että kaikille annetaan yhtäläinen mahdollisuus tulla kuulluiksi, aina siihen asti, että kehitetään tiimihenkeä ajamalla samalla bussilla.”

Skenariotyöskentelystä

·     Paranoidi optimismi suorastaan pakottaa skenaariotyöskentelyyn. Mielikuvitusta on mahdotonta estää kehittelemästä erilaisia menestys- ja romahdusskenaarioita – ja keksimästä keinoja vaikuttaa niiden toteutumiseen.

·     Skenaariotyöskentely on keino tuoda kuria ja järjestystä tulevaisuuden ajatteluun ja toisaalta väline, jolla suuret ongelmat puretaan hallittaviksi osiksi, joita voidaan käsitellä yksi kerrallaan. Skenaariotyöskentelyn tuloksellisuus riippuu näkemysten laajuudesta ja syvyydestä: ensin varteenotettavat vaihtoehdot luetteloidaan ja sitten poraudutaan syvälle kunkin mahdollisuuden avainkohtiin.

·     Skenaariotyöskentelyyn sisältyi lupaus siitä, että epämiellyttäviltä yllätyksiltä vältyttäisiin. Pyrimme siihen pyytämällä johtoryhmää esittelemään hallitukselle vaihtoehtoisia skenaarioita. 

Neuvotteluista

Tuloksekkaiden neuvottelujen tärkeimmät tekijät ovat seuraavat

·     ”Maksimoikaa kasvokkain vietetty neuvotteluaika.

·     Pitäkää neuvotteluryhmät pieninä ja keskustelujen tunnelma intiiminä.

·     Etsikää jokaiselle neuvottelijalle oikea vastinpari. Esimerkiksi lakiasiainjohtajamme ja talousjohtajamme olivat luontaisia pareja. Minä itse olin oikea pari Steve Ballmerille.

·     Suunnitelkaa neuvottelutaktiikka etukäteen. Varautukaa kaikkiin vaihtoehtoihin.

·     Vaatimusten tulee olla johdonmukaisia ja selkeitä. On tunnettava rajansa, tiedettävä mistä ei tingitä ja ymmärrettävä, milloin on aika joustaa.

·     Pitäkää hallituksenne tilanteen tasalla joka käänteessä.

·     Pitäkää neuvottelut käynnissä, älkää antako liikkeen pysähtyä. Varmistakaa, että seuraavasta askeleesta on aina sovittu yhdessä.

·     Pyytäkää rohkeasti sitä, mitä tarvitsette. Perustelkaa pyyntö selvästi. Älkää pelätkö menevänne liian pitkälle, mutta keskittykää toimimaan tavalla, joka todennäköisimmin tuottaa halutun tuloksen.

·     Yhteistyösuhteen rakentaminen on tärkeä osa neuvotteluja. Luottamus pitää viestintäyhteydet avoimina, vaikka neuvottelut katkeaisivatkin, ja niin keskustelut voidaan käynnistää uudelleen. Luottamus on öljyä, jonka voitelemana kaikki rullaa sujuvammin.

·     Ongelmat ovat tilaisuus luoda luottamusta.

·     Jättäkää egot neuvotteluhuoneen ovelle.”

Tulevaisuutta Siilasmaa näkee seuraavasti

·     ”HERE oli pilvipohjainen yritys, jonka ideana oli vastata kysymykseen ”Missä?” aivan kuten Google vastasi kysymykseen ”Mitä?” ja Facebook kysymykseen ”Kuka?”

·     Ohjelmoitavan maailman ideana on reaalimaailman jatkuva analysointi miljardien sensorien avulla, eli tapahtumia pyritään ymmärtämään keräämällä tietoja ja punomalla niistä verkko, joka muuttaa arkisen maailmamme muokattavaksi ympäristöksi. Tätä ilmiötä kutsutaan myös esineiden internetiksi (Internet of Things, IoT) tai kaiken internetiksi (Internet of Everything, IoE). Se on nopeasti kehittyvän tekoälyn ja koneoppimisen maailman ytimessä.

·     Bruce Brown, P&G:n teknologiajohtaja, ehdotti menetelmää nimeltä ”tulevaisuudesta takaisin” (”Future Back”).6 Se on strateginen ajattelutapa, jossa kuvitellaan ensin kunnianhimoinen tulevaisuudennäkymä ja palataan sitten askel askeleelta kohti nykyhetkeä ja hahmotellaan, miten tavoitteeseen päästään.”

Saneerauksesta

•              Älä ikinä valehtele.

•              Jos tilanne sallii, on viisainta myöntää avoimesti, ettet voi puhua aiheesta.

•              Selitä, miksi et voi puhua siitä.

•              Kun puhut oman väen kesken, sano kaikki mitä suinkin voit ja tee se minkä voit, jotta he tajuavat, että sinä teet parhaasi kertoaksesi niin paljon kuin mahdollista ja ehkä vähän enemmänkin.

•              Jos et voi puhua lopputuloksesta, kerro valintaan johtavasta prosessista.

Neljä arvoa

Neljä arvoa vastaavat lähes täsmälleen yrittäjämäisen johtajuuden periaatteita:

 • Kunnioitus tarkoittaa tinkimätöntä rehellisyyttä. Ihmisten kunnioittava kohtelu on perusta luottamuksen rakentamiselle.

 • Tavoitteiden saavuttaminen tarkoittaa vastuuntuntoa – ei ainoastaan korkeaa vaatimustasoa vaan jatkuvaa kehitystä, joka kohottaa jatkuvasti omaa ja kollegoiden rimaa.

• Haaste tarkoittaa, ettei saa sortua itsetyytyväisyyteen. Toisin sanoen on tutkittava vaihtoehtoisia skenaarioita, otettava huonot uutiset vastaan ja hyödynnettävä paranoidin optimismin voimaa.

 • Uudistuminen tarkoittaa halua kuunnella ja oppia, kehittää taitoja, mukauttaa tapoja ja muuttua muuttuvan liiketoimintaympäristön mukana.

Uusi Nokia

Siilasmaan analyysi miksi Nokia selviytyi vaikeuksista. ”Seuraavat neuvot auttoivat meitä hitsautumaan yhtenäiseksi tiimiksi, saamaan voimaa toisiltamme ja luomaan mallin, josta muut saattoivat ottaa oppia sovellettavaksi omissa ryhmissään:

 • Paranoidi optimismi. On keskusteltava avoimesti ja rehellisesti pahimmastakin mitä voi tapahtua. Meidän tapauksessamme tämä hälvensi pelkoja ja toi tietoisuuden siitä, että vaihtoehtoja on olemassa. Niin kauan kuin vaihtoehtoja on olemassa, voimme vaikuttaa siihen, millaisten vaihtoehtojen haluamme toteutuvan. Se luo optimismia. Kun johto säteilee aitoa optimismia, se tarttuu muihinkin.

 • Vastuuntuntoisuuteen kannustaminen. Halusimme jokaisen ajattelevan kuin johtaja, joten annoimme ihmisille laajat valtuudet. Yritimme maksimoida niiden ihmisten määrän, joilla on mielestään tilanteen vaatiessa lupa sanoa ”Minä teen sen” tai ”Minä päätän tästä”, minimoidaksemme johdon päätettäviksi vietävien asioiden määrän.

 • Skenaarioajattelun edistäminen. Halusimme, että jokainen miettii aina mahdollisia vaihtoehtoja. Tavoitteena on paitsi havaita kulloinkin tarjolla olevat vaihtoehdot myös kuvitella ja jopa luoda erilaisia tilaisuuksia ja mahdollisuuksia, niin kielteisiä kuin myönteisiäkin, samoin kuin mahdollisuuksiin liittyviä toimenpiteitä.

 • Luottamuksen rakentaminen. Luottamus on öljy, joka saa asiat luistamaan. Lakkaamatta muuttuvassa toimintaympäristössämme, jossa ongelmia putkahteli kuin tyhjästä, luottamus oli myös polttoaine, joka piti meidät liikkeessä. Se pakotti toimimaan avoimesti, kohtelemaan kollegoita kunnioittavasti ja kertomaan huonotkin uutiset viivyttelemättä.

 • Maltin säilyttäminen joka tilanteessa. Mitä kireämpi tilanne, sitä tyynempänä on pysyttävä. Mitä enemmän pelottaa, sitä kylmempänä pää on pidettävä. Kun suuttumisen mahdollisuus on poissa laskuista, sitä on itse asiassa helppo välttää. Suuttuminen on mahdollista vain silloin, kun sen ylellisyyden suo itselleen.

 • Naurunaiheiden löytäminen. Nauru – tai jo pelkkä hymy – lievittää kummasti jännitystä, hälventää levottomuutta ja saa ihmiset ajattelemaan tuloksekkaammin.

Paikkoja

Mielenkiintoista kirjassa oli myös paikat, joita Siilasmaa luetteli. Siis paikkoja missä Nokian historiaa tehtiin:

•              Lontoossa hotelli Berkeleyssä, Connaughtissa ja Savoyssa Lontoossa.

•              Pekingin Ritz-Carltonista. 

•              Båtvikissa Kirkkonummella. 

•              Pariisissa ravintola Laurentissa. 

Mitä meidän pitäisi tehdä kirjan perusteella?

Yksityiskohdista

”Kun naula puuttui, menetettiin hevosenkenkä. Kun hevosenkenkä puuttui, menetettiin hevonen. Kun hevonen puuttui, hävittiin taistelu. Kun taistelu hävittiin, kaatui kuningaskunta – ja kaikki vain yhden puuttuvan naulan takia.” Paranoidi optimisti näkee mielessään juuri tämän skenaarion ja pureutuu yksityiskohtiin varmistaakseen, että kaikki naulat ovat paikoillaan.

Mitä minun pitäisi itse tehdä? 

Milloin pitää toimia? ”Hyvät ajat ovat paras hetki ryhtyä paranoidiksi optimistiksi. Vaaran merkkejä kannattaa etsiä juuri siksi, että yrityksellä on vielä riittävästi resursseja, joilla korjata kurssia kohti selviä vesiä.”

Yhteenveto

Tästä kirjasta löytyi enemmän kuin yksi kuuden sana tiivistystä, joten arvoisa lukija saat valita parhaimman:

Kuusi sanaa…. ”Minusta miksi on aina tärkeämpi kysymys kuin mitä ja miten.”

Kuusi sanaa…. ”Jos näin käy, leukemiaa saatetaan hoitaa kipsaamalla vasen jalka.”

Kuusi sanaa…. ”Risto, miksi vitussa sinun pitää työntää nenäsi joka paikkaan?”

Kuusi sanaa…. ”If you see something, say something.”

Kuusi sanaa…. ”Tieto ei korvaa ymmärrystä.”

Kuusi sanaa…. “This is what I want you to take back to your board.”

Kuusi sanaa…. ”Mitä enemmän harjoittelen, sitä useammin minulla on tuuria.”

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Harari: 21 Lessons for the 21st Century

About the book 

The ”21 Lessons for the 21st Century” book must have been one of the most expected books of the year. Harari’s previous books – Homo Sapiens and Homo Deus, have been so successful that this book must be at least successful. In that sense and without hesitation we can say that these books should not be compared. The 21/21 book is polemic and contemporary.  

How was the book?

First and foremost Yuval Noah Harari is a historian. He sees and thinks great many things as a historical continuum. Most probably Harari’s latest work will been seen not as book by a professor of history rather than a book by a philosopher of our time. If you are expecting a typical self-help book with a list of 21 things you should do, then this is not a book for you. Harari surely has 21 topics that he covers, but without direct “call-to-action”. The 21 topics are not ”a historical narrative, but rather as a selection of lessons.” Actually Harari has divided the book into five major topics:

1)   technological change,

2)   political change,

3)   despair and hope,

4)   truth and

5)   resilience.

Within these five topics he analyses future of humanity. I enjoyed reading ”21 Lessons for the 21st Century” book, but it is not in the same category as Homo Sapiens or Homo Deus. 

What are the key learnings?

”History gives no discounts. If the future of humanity is decided in your absence, because you are too busy feeding and clothing your kids – you and they will not be exempt from the consequences.”

To start with here are the 21 lessons for the 21st century:

1 DISILLUSIONMENT The end of history has been postponed

2 WORK When you grow up, you might not have a job

3 LIBERTY Big Data is watching you

4 EQUALITY Those who own the data own the future

5 COMMUNITY Humans have bodies

6 CIVILISATION There is just one civilisation in the world

7 NATIONALISM Global problems need global answers

8 RELIGION God now serves the nation

9 IMMIGRATION Some cultures might be better than others

10 TERRORISM Don’t panic

11 WAR Never underestimate human stupidity

12 HUMILITY You are not the centre of the world

13 GOD Don’t take the name of God in vain

14 SECULARISM Acknowledge your shadow

15 IGNORANCE You know less than you think

16 JUSTICE Our sense of justice might be out of date

17 POST-TRUTH Some fake news lasts for ever

18 SCIENCE FICTION The future is not what you see in the movies

19 EDUCATION Change is the only constant

20 MEANING Life is not a story

21 MEDITATION Just observe

Yuval Noah Harari has a task and it is to empower. ”Even if a handful of additional people will join the debate about the future of our species, I have done my job.” He wants to ”zoom in on the here and now” and his focus ”is on current affairs and on the immediate future of human societies.” His agenda is global and he explores the ”major forces that shape societies all over the world, and that are likely to influence the future of our planet as a whole.”

Key learnings are:

– Stay relevant. 

– Teach the four C’s.

– I am the hero of the future.

– Once a lie, always the truth.

– The ambition is to build drama.

– Modern humans have lost their story.

– What we ultimately ought to protect is humans –not jobs.

Stay relevant

When you reach the age of fifty you should start considering to re-invent yourself. ”To stay relevant – not just economically, but above all socially – you will need the ability to constantly learn and to reinvent yourself, certainly at a young age like fifty.”

”The harder you’ve worked on building something, the more difficult it is to let go of it and make room for something new. You might still cherish new experiences and minor adjustments, but most people in their fifties aren’t ready to overhaul the deep structures of their identity and personality.”

”By the time you are fifty, you don’t want change, and most people have given up on conquering the world. Been there, done that, got the T-shirt. You much prefer stability. You have invested so much in your skills, your career, your identity and your world view that you don’t want to start all over again.”

Teach the four C’s.

We should be teaching ‘the four Cs’ –critical thinking, communication, collaboration and creativity. ”A baby born today will be thirty-something in 2050. If all goes well, that baby will still be around in 2100, and might even be an active citizen of the twenty-second century. What should we teach that baby that will help him or her survive and flourish in the world of 2050 or of the twenty-second century? What kind of skills will he or she need in order to get a job, understand what is happening around them, and navigate the maze of life?”

I am the hero of the future

The liberal story was the story of ordinary people. The good story of the society and the liberal story and are connected. ””A good story need not extend to infinity, it must extend beyond my horizons.”

We need once again the attitude that ordinary people can say that ”I am the hero of the future”. This is why Trump is so popular, because people can say that they are important. ”Ordinary people may not understand artificial intelligence and biotechnology, but they can sense that the future is passing them by. In 1938 the condition of the common person in the USSR, Germany or the USA may have been grim, but he was constantly told that he was the most important thing in the world, and that he was the future (provided, of course, that he was an ‘ordinary person’ rather than a Jew or an African). He looked at the propaganda posters –which typically depicted coal miners, steelworkers and housewives in heroic poses –and saw himself there: ‘I am in that poster! I am the hero of the future!’”

The liberal story is in crisis. ”In 1938 humans were offered three (the fascist story, the communist story, and the liberal story) global stories to choose from, in 1968 just two, in 1998 a single story seemed to prevail; in 2018 we are down to zero.”

Liberal story has ”triumphed over imperialism, over fascism, and over communism by adopting some of their best ideas and practices. In particular, the liberal story learned from communism to expand the circle of empathy and to value equality alongside liberty. This is not the first time the liberal story has faced a crisis of confidence. Ever since this story gained global influence, in the second half of the nineteenth century, it has endured periodic crises. The first era of globalisation and liberalisation ended in the bloodbath of the First World War. During the Che Guevara moment, between the 1950s and the 1970s, it again seemed that liberalism was on its last legs, and that the future belonged to communism.” And even today – who wants to move to Russia? At least Harari has not met ”a single person who dreams of emigrating to Russia.”

Most humans never enjoyed greater peace or prosperity than they did under the aegis of the liberal order of the early twenty-first century. But liberalism has no obvious answers to the biggest problems we face: ecological collapse and technological disruption. But here is hope ”at the end of the day, humankind won’t abandon the liberal story, because it doesn’t have any alternative. People may give the system an angry kick in the stomach but, having nowhere else to go, they will eventually come back.

Democracy is based on Abraham Lincoln’s principle that ‘you can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time’.”

Once a lie, always the truth

Goebbels: ‘A lie told once remains a lie, but a lie told a thousand times becomes the truth.’ ”Humans have this remarkable ability to know and not to know at the same time. Truth and power can travel together only so far. Sooner or later they go their separate ways. If you want power, at some point you will have to spread fictions.”

Digital dictatorships might be around the corner. ”In the late twentieth century democracies usually outperformed dictatorships because democracies were better at data-processing. And why? Democracy diffuses the power to process information and make decisions among many people and institutions, whereas dictatorship concentrates information and power in one place. We cannot predict what will be the motivations and powers of digital dictatorships in 2084, but it is very unlikely that they will just copy Hitler and Stalin.”

How can we avoid the mistakes of the past? ”First, if you want reliable information – pay good money for it. The second rule of thumb is that if some issue seems exceptionally important to you, make the effort to read the relevant scientific literature. And by scientific literature I mean peer-reviewed articles, books published by well-known academic publishers, and the writings of professors from reputable institutions.”

The ambition is to build drama

The ambition of terrorist is to build drama. ”Terrorists don’t think like army generals. Instead, they think like theatre producers. The public memory of the 9/ 11 attacks testifies that everyone understands this intuitively. If you ask people what happened on 9/ 11, they are likely to say that al-Qaeda knocked down the twin towers of the World Trade Center. Yet the attack involved not merely the towers, but two other actions, in particular a successful attack on the Pentagon. How come few people remember that?

How then should the state deal with terrorism? A successful counter-terrorism struggle should be conducted on three fronts:

1) Governments should focus on clandestine actions against the terror networks.

2) The media should keep things in perspective and avoid hysteria. The theatre of terror cannot succeed without publicity. Unfortunately, the media all too often provides this publicity for free. It obsessively reports terror attacks and greatly inflates their danger, because reports on terrorism sell newspapers much better than reports on diabetes or air pollution.

3) The imagination of each and every one of us. Terrorists hold our imagination captive, and use it against us. Again and again we rehearse the terrorist attack on the stage of our mind –remembering 9/ 11 or the latest suicide bombings. The terrorists kill a hundred people –and cause 100 million to imagine that there is a murderer lurking behind every tree. It is the responsibility of every citizen to liberate his or her imagination from the terrorists, and to remind ourselves of the true dimensions of this threat. It is our own inner terror that prompts the media to obsess about terrorism, and the government to overreact.

Modern humans have lost their story

”A good story need not extend to infinity, it must extend beyond my horizons. Most successful stories remain open-ended. They never need to explain where meaning ultimately comes from, because they are so good at capturing people’s attention and keeping it inside a safe zone. While a good story must give me a role, and must extend beyond my horizons, it need not be true. A story can be pure fiction, and yet provide me with an identity and make me feel that my life has meaning. Not only our personal identities but also our collective institutions are built on the story.”

What we ultimately ought to protect is humans –not jobs

The famous last words are ”Who wants to buy yoga lessons from a robot?” Obviously everybody willl be buying yoga lessons from a robot. ”We have no idea what the job market will look like in 2050. It is generally agreed that machine learning and robotics will change almost every line of work – from producing yoghurt to teaching yoga. Redundant drivers and doctors will just have to find something else to do.”

Automation of different areas of life or process has not ended the original activity. TV didn’t stop people from listening and Internet didn’t stop people from watching. And we haven’t stopped playing chess although Deep Blue beat Garry Kasparov in 1997. ”Rather, thanks to AI trainers human chess masters became better than ever, and at least for a while human–AI teams known as ‘centaurs’ outperformed both humans and computers in chess. AI might similarly help groom the best detectives, bankers and soldiers in history.”

Universal Basic Income could be one way to protect humans, but the the people who really need UBI do not live in Finland. They live in Bangalore. Secondly ”Homo sapiens is just not built for satisfaction. Human happiness depends less on objective conditions and more on our own expectations. Expectations, however, tend to adapt to conditions, including to the condition of other people.” So to protect people we should avoid the increase in the standard of living.

How should we change according to the book?

We should regulate the ownership of data.

We must set the relevant ethical standards and we cannot rely on the machine to do it.

We should commit to truth and compassion which will result to equality.

What should I personally do?

I should constantly learn and to reinvent yourself.

Summary

The book in six words – ”Do not write off the future ”

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Rosling: Faktojen maailma

Kirjasta

Kirja oli erittäin nopea lukea, hauska ja positiivinen sävyltään. Hans Rosling määritteli itsensä possibilistiksi ja sen kyllä huomaa. Tämän kirjan ahmaiset tuossa tuokiossa ja se on lukukokemuksena hauska.

Minkälainen kirja oli?

Pettymys, kirja oli pettymys. Minun mielestä kirja on saanut poikkeuksellisen paljon ylistävää näkyvyyttä. Jopa suorastaan hurmoshenkistä kiitosta on sadellut kirjalle. En voi samaistua Bill Gatesin kokemukseen että kirja on ”one of the most important”. Roslingin ”Faktojen maailma” ei pääse minun top10-kirjoihin.

Plussaa kirjassa on, että se on parantumattoman optimistin kirjoittama, vaikka kirjalilija määrittelee itsensä seuraavasti: ”Minä en ole optimisti. Se saa minut kuulostamaan sinisilmäiseltä. Olen hyvin vakava ”possibilisti”, mahdollisuuksien etsijä”. Miinusta kirjassa on, että osa opetuksista on kerrottu jo tilastotieteen perusopinnoissa. Ja ensimmäistä kertaa tällä vuosikymmenellä on pakko todeta, että käännös on huono, oikoluku jäänyt tekemättä koska se sisältää kirjoitusvirheitä ja jotkut ajatukset on epäselvästi käännetty.

Älä pety näihin sanoihin, koska kirja on lukemisen arvoinen.  

Mitkä ovat kirjan keskeiset ideat? 

Hans Roslingin perusviesti on, että ”aste asteelta, vuosi vuodelta, maailma muuttuu paremmaksi. Maailma on tänään parempi paikka kuin menneisyydessä, jonne ei missään nimessä pidä haaveilla paluuta. Rosling haluaa opettaa faktatietoisuutta , jolla voi taistella ylidramaattisuutta vastaan. Tai kuten Rosling määrittelee kirjan tarkoituksen olevan seuraava: ”Tämä kirja on viimeinen taistelu elämänmittaisessa tehtävässäni tuhoisaa globaalia tietämättömyyttä vastaan.” 

Faktatietoisuuden pitäisi kuulua arkielämääsi siinä missä terveellinen ruokavalio ja säännöllinen liikunta. Alettuasi harjoittaa faktatietoisuutta pystyt korvaamaan ylidramaattisen maailmankuvan sellaisella, joka perustuu faktoihin.

Kirja opettaa mitä voit tehdä faktatietoisuuden avulla ja ”miten se voi muuttaa olosi positiivisemmaksi, stressittömämmäksi ja toiveikkaammaksi, kun astut sirkusteltasta takaisin maailmaan. Meidän on opittava kontrolloimaan draaman määrää. Draamannälkä menee kontrolloimattomana liian pitkälle, estää näkemästä maailman sellaisena kuin se on ja vie meidät pahasti harhaan.”

”Kun ongelma näyttää kiireelliseltä, ensimmäiseksi ei pidä parkua sutta vaan organisoida data. Dataa on käytettävä kertomaan totuus eikä yllyttämään toimintaan, olivatpa aikomukset kuinka jaloja tahansa.”

”Faktatietoisuutta on tunnistaa, milloin päätös tuntuu kiireelliseltä ja muistaa, että se harvoin on sitä.” 

Faktatietoisuuden lisäksi meille länsimaisen hyvinvointivaltion asukkailla ei ole hajuakaan missä todellisuudessa keskeinen osa maapallon väestöstä elää. Kirja on eräänlainen ”reality check”. Kaikilla ei ole kahta autoa ja rivitaloa. Hyvä jos muilla kuin ”meillä” on oma hammasharja. 

Kirjassa esitellään kymmenen draamavaisto. Ne estävät ihmisiä näkemästä asioita niin kuin ne oikeasti ovat 

1. KUILUVAISTO

”Tarkoitan vastustamatonta houkutusta jakaa kaikenlaiset asiat kahteen erilliseen ja usein vastakkaiseen ryhmään, joita erottaa kuviteltu juopa – valtava epäoikeudenmukaisuuden kuilu. Luku käsittelee sitä, miten kuiluvaisto luo ihmisten päähän kuvan maailmasta, joka jakaantuu kahdenlaisiin maihin tai kahdenlaisiin ihmisiin: toisaalta rikkaisiin toisaalta köyhiin.”

Miten hallita kuiluvaistoa?

”Tavallisesti nähdään kolme varoitusmerkkiä, kun joku kertoo sinulle (tai sinä kerrot itsellesi) ylidramaattista kuilukertomusta ja laukaisee kuiluvaistosi. Kutsukaamme niitä: 

– Keskiarvojen vertailuiksi. Keskiarvot johtavat harhaan kätkemällä hajonnan (eri lukujen vaihteluvälin) yhteen numeroon. Toisin sanoen näemme aukkoja, joita ei todellisuudessa ole olemassa. Miehet vastaan naiset. Totta kai aukkokertomukset voivat heijastaa todellisuutta. Etelä-Afrikan apartheidissa mustat ja valkoiset elivät eri tulotasoilla ja niiden välillä oli todellinen kuilu eikä juuri lainkaan päällekkäisyyttä. Eri ryhmien juopakertomus oli ehdottomasti merkitsevä. Apartheid oli kuitenkin hyvin epätavallista. Paljon useammin kuilukertomukset ovat harhaanjohtavaa ylidramatisoimista

– Äärimmäisyyksien vertailuiksi ja äärimmäisyyksien olemassaolo ei vielä kerro paljon. Enemmistö löytyy yleensä keskeltä, ja se kertoo hyvin erilaista tarinaa.

– Ylhäältäpäin katseluksi. Alaspäin katsottaessa näkymä vääristyy. Kaikki muu näyttää tasaisen matalalta, vaikka niin ei ole.

2. KIELTEISYYSVAISTO 

”Ihmisillä on viehtymyksestä kielteisyyteen: taipumuksestamme nähdä paha pikemmin kuin hyvä. On helppo tiedostaa kaikki pahat asiat, joita maailmassa tapahtuu. Vaikeampaa on tietää hyvistä asioista.” Suureksi osaksi se johtuu viehtymyksestä kielteisyyteen – paha kiehtoo meitä enemmän kuin hyvä. Siihen vaikuttaa kolme seikkaa:

1. menneisyyden väärin muistaminen,

2. journalistien ja aktivistien valikoiva raportointi sekä

3. tunne, että niin kauan kuin asiat ovat huonosti, on sydämetöntä sanoa niiden muuttuvan paremmiksi.”

Miten kielteisyysvaistoa hallitaan 

”Negatiivisen vaiston hallitsemiseksi odota huonoja uutisia.

• Parempi ja paha. Harjoittele erottamaan taso (esimerkiksi huono) ja muutoksen suunta (esimerkiksi parempi) toisistaan. Vakuuta itsellesi, että asiat voivat olla sekä paremmin että huonosti.

• Hyvä uutinen ei ole uutinen. Hyvistä uutisista ei usein kerrota. Siksi uutiset ovat melkein aina huonoja. Kun näet huonoja uutisia, kysy, olisiko yhtä lailla positiivinen uutinen tavoittanut sinut.

• Vähittäinen parannus ei ole uutinen. Kun trendi paranee asteittain mutta tilapäisin notkahduksin, todennäköisesti huomaat notkahdukset paremmin kuin yleisen parantumisen.

• Lisää uutisia ei merkitse lisää kärsimystä. Huonojen uutisten lisääntyminen johtuu joskus siitä, että kärsimystä seurataan tarkemmin, ei siitä että maailmaa muuttuu huonommaksi.

• Varo ruusuista menneisyyttä. Usein ihmiset kaunistelevat kokemuksiaan ja kansakunnat kiillottavat menneisyyttään.”

3. VIIVASUORUUSVAISTO

Suorat viivat ovat paljon harvinaisempia kuin kuvittelemme, mutta jotkut viivat ovat suoria.

Miten hallitaan viivasuoravaistoa eli kaikki viivat eivät ole suoria

Viivasuoruusvaiston hallitsemiseksi kannattaa muistaa, että käyriä on monenmuotoisia.

• Älä oleta suoria linjoja. Monet trendit eivät noudata suoria viivoja vaan ovat S-mutkia, liukumäkiä tai tuplaantuvia linjoja. Yksikään vauva ei ole koskaan kasvanut samaa vauhtia tultuaan puolivuotiaaksi eikä kukaan vanhempi ole sitä odottanutkaan. 

4. PELKOVAISTO

”Kenelläkään meistä ei ole niin paljon henkistä kapasiteettia, että kykenisimme käyttämään kaiken ulkopuolisen informaation. Epätavalliset tapaukset ovat suurempia uutisia kuin tavanomaiset. Suhdelukuja hirvittämistä tapahtumista: luonnonkatastrofeja (0,1 prosenttia kaikista kuolemista), lentokoneonnettomuuksia (0,001 prosenttia), murhia (0,7 prosenttia), ydinvuotoja (0 prosenttia) ja terrorismia (0,05 prosenttia).”

”Vuonna 2016 kaikkiaan 40 miljoonaa kaupallista matkustajalentokonetta laskeutui turvallisesti määränpäähänsä. Vain kymmenen joutui vakavaan onnettomuuteen. Totta kai juuri niistä journalistit kirjoittivat: 0,000025 prosenttia kaikista. Vuosi 2016 oli toiseksi turvallisin vuosi ilmailun historiassa. Myöskään se ei ole uutisarvoista.” 

”Jos on olemassa ihmisryhmä, joka on ymmärtänyt pelkovaiston voiman täydellisesti, se ei ole journalistit. Se on terroristit. Vuodesta 2007 vuoteen 2016 terroristit tappoivat tason 4 maissa kaikkiaan 1 439 ihmistä. Edellisinä kymmenenä vuotena surmattuja oli 4 358.”

”Faktatietoisuutta on havaita, milloin pelottavat asiat vievät huomiomme, ja muistaa, että ne eivät välttämättä ole kaikkein vaarallisimpia. Luontainen pelkomme väkivaltaa, loukkuun joutumista ja saastutetuksi tulemista kohtaan saa meidät liioittelemaan näitä riskejä järjestelmällisesti.”

”Pelkovaiston hallitsemiseksi pitää arvioida riskit.

• Pelottava maailma: pelko vastaan todellisuus. Maailma näyttää pelottavammalta kuin se on, koska se mitä kuulemme siitä on oman huomiosuodattimen tai median valitsemaa – juuri siksi että se on pelottavaa.

• Riski = vaara × alttius. Omaan itseen kohdistuva uhka ei riipu siitä, miten pelokkaaksi se tekee olon, vaan se on kahden seikan yhdistelmä. Miten vaarallinen se on? Ja miten alttiina sinä itse olet?

• Pysähdy rauhoittumaan. Pelon vallassa maailman näkee eri tavalla. Tee mahdollisimman vähän päätöksiä kunnes paniikki on helpottanut.”

5. KOKOVAISTO

”Kokovaisto ohjaa rajallisen huomiomme ja resurssimme yksittäisiin tapauksiin ja tunnistettaviin uhreihin, konkreettisiin asioihin aivan silmiemme edessä. Tärkein seikka, jolla välttää arvioimasta väärin jonkin asian tärkeyttä, on karttaa yksittäisiä lukuja. Älä ikimaailmassa tyydy ainokaiseen lukuun. Älä koskaan usko, että yksi ainoa luku voi olla merkitsevä. Jos sinulle tarjotaan yhtä lukua, pyydä aina vähintään toinen lisää. Jotain mihin verrata. Ole erityisen varovainen suurten lukujen kanssa. Omituista kyllä, mutta tietyn koon ylittävät numerot näyttävät aina suurilta, jos niitä ei verrata mihinkään. Ja miten jokin voi olla iso olematta tärkeä?”

Faktatietoisuutta on huomata, milloin yksittäinen luku näyttää vaikuttavalta (pieneltä tai suurelta), ja muistaa, että voisi saada päinvastaisen vaikutelman, jos lukua vertaa tai jos sen jakaa toisella relevantilla luvulla.

Kokovaistoa hallitaan panemalla asiat oikeisiin mittasuhteisiin.

• Vertaa. Suuret numerot näyttävät aina suurilta. Yksittäiset luvut sellaisinaan ovat harhaanjohtavia ja niiden pitäisi herättää epäilyksiä. Hae aina vertailukohtia. Ihannetapauksessa jaa ne jollain.

• 80/20. Oletko saanut pitkän luettelon? Etsi siitä muutamat suurimmat kohdat ja selvitä ne ensin. Ne ovat hyvin todennäköisesti tärkeämpiä kuin kaikki muut kohdat yhteensä.

• Jaa. Määrät ja suhteet voivat kertoa hyvin erilaisia tarinoita. Suhteet ovat merkitsevämpiä varsinkin kun verrataan erikokoisia ryhmiä. Hae varsinkin henkeä kohti laskettuja määriä, kun tehdään vertailuja maiden tai alueiden välillä.

6. YLEISTÄMISVAISTO

Jokainen ihminen luokittelee ja yleistää automaattisesti koko ajan. Tiedostamattaan. Kyse ei ole ennakkoluuloisuudesta tai valistuneisuudesta. Kuiluvaisto jakaa maailman ”meihin” ja ”heihin” ja yleistämisvaisto saa ”meidät” pitämään kaikkia ”heitä” samanlaisina. On hyödyllistä olettaa aina, että kategoriasi ovat harhaanjohtavia.”

”Faktatietoisuutta on tunnistaa, milloin kategoriaa käytetään selityksenä, ja muistaa, että kategoriat voivat olla harhaanjohtavia. Emme voi lakata yleistämästä eikä sitä pidä edes yrittää. Sen sijaan meidän pitäisi välttää yleistämästä väärällä tavalla.”

”Pitääksesi yleistämisvaiston hallinnassa epäile kategorioitasi.

• Hae ryhmien sisäisiä eroja. Varsinkin kun ryhmät ovat suuria, koeta jakaa niitä pienemmiksi, täsmällisemmiksi kategorioiksi.

• Hae yhtäläisyyksiä ryhmien välillä. Jos huomaat hämmästyttäviä yhtäläisyyksiä eri ryhmien välillä, harkitse ovatko kategoriasi relevantteja. Mutta myös…

• Hae eroja ryhmien välillä. Älä oleta, että se mikä pätee yhteen ryhmään (esimerkiksi sinuun ja muihin tasolla 4 eläviin ihmisiin tai tiedottomiin sotilaisiin) pätee toiseen (kuten ihmisiin, jotka eivät elä tasolla 4 tai nukkuviin vauvoihin).

• Varo ”enemmistöä”. Enemmistö tarkoittaa ainoastaan yli puolta. Kysy, tarkoittaako se 51:tä prosenttia, 99:ää prosenttia vai jotain siltä väliltä.

• Varo räikeitä esimerkkejä. Vahvat kuvat on helpompi muistaa, mutta ne voivat olla poikkeus eikä sääntö.

• Oleta, että ihmiset eivät ole idiootteja. Kun jokin näyttää oudolta, ole utelias ja nöyrä ja ajattele: Millä tavoin tämä on neuvokas ratkaisu?”

7. KOHTALOVAISTO

”Kohtalovaiston tavallinen ilmentymä on edinburghilaisen herrasmiehen ajatus, että Afrikka tulee aina olemaan konkurssissa eikä saa ikinä Eurooppaa kiinni. Kohtalovaiston kurissa pitäminen edellyttää, että ei sekoiteta hidasta muutosta muuttumattomuuteen. Ei pidä vähätellä vuotuista muutosta – edes 1 prosentin vuotuista muutosta – siksi että se vaikuttaa liian pieneltä ja hitaalta.” 

”Faktatietoisuutta on oivaltaa, että monet asiat (mukaan lukien ihmiset, maat, uskonnot ja kulttuurit) näyttävät olevan aina samat juuri siksi, että muutos tapahtuu hitaasti, ja muistaa, että jopa pienistä, hitaista muutoksista kasvaa vähitellen suuria muutoksia.” 

”Kohtalovaiston kurissa pitämiseksi muista, että hidas muutos on silti muutos.

• Seuraa vähittäisiä parannuksia. Pieni muutos joka vuosi voi merkitä valtavaa muutosta vuosikymmenten mittaan.

• Päivitä tietosi. Jotkut tiedot vanhenevat nopeasti. Teknologia, maat, yhteiskunnat, kulttuurit ja uskonnot ovat jatkuvassa muutoksessa.

• Puhu isoisäsi kanssa. Jos haluat muistutuksen siitä miten arvot ovat muuttuneet, ajattele isovanhempiesi arvoja ja miten ne eroavat sinun arvoistasi.

• Kokoa esimerkkejä kulttuurin muutoksista. Epäile ajatusta, että tämän päivän kulttuurin on oltava sama kuin eilen ja että se on sama vielä huomennakin.”

8. AINOAN NÄKÖKULMAN VAISTO

”Kaikilla ongelmilla on yksi ainoa syy – jota meidän on aina ehdottomasti vastustettava. Tai kaikilla ongelmilla on yksi ainoa ratkaisu, jota meidän on aina ehdottomasti puolustettava. Kaikki on yksinkertaista. Siinä on vain yksi pikku juttu. Me ymmärrämme maailman täysin väärin. Kutsun tätä mieltymystä ainoihin syihin ja ainoihin ratkaisuihin ainoan näkökulman vaistoksi.”

”Sen sijaan etsi aina lempi-ideoittesi heikkouksia. Suhtaudu nöyrästi asiantuntemuksesi laajuuteen. Suhtaudu uteliaasti sekä uuteen tietoon, joka ei sovi kuvaan, että muiden alojen informaatioon. Älä puhu vain samaa mieltä olevien kanssa tai kokoa ideoihisi sopivia esimerkkejä, vaan pidä vastaan inttäviä, eri mieltä olevia ja erilaisia ideoita esittäviä ihmisiä hyvänä mahdollisuutena ymmärtää maailmaa.”

Kuuba: ”Me emme ole köyhistä terveimmät, me olemme terveistä köyhimmät.”

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”Faktatietoisuutta on huomata, että yksi ainoa näkökulma voi rajoittaa mielikuvitustasi, ja muistaa, että on parempi tarkastella ongelmia monesta kulmasta, jotta alkaisi ymmärtää tarkemmin ja löytäisi käytännöllisiä ratkaisuja.” 

”Ainoan näkökulman vaiston hallintaan tarvitaan työkalupakki, ei vasaraa.

• Testaa ideasi. Älä pelkästään kerää esimerkkejä siitä, kuinka erinomaisia lempi-ideasi ovat. Hanki eri mieltä olevia ihmisiä testaamaan ideoitasi ja huomaamaan niiden heikkoudet.

• Rajallinen asiantuntemus. Älä väitä olevasi asiantuntija oman alasi ulkopuolella: suhtaudu nöyrästi siihen mitä et tiedä. Tiedosta myös muiden asiantuntemuksen rajat.

• Vasara ja naula. Jos olet hyvä käyttämään yhtä työkalua, haluat kenties käyttää sitä liian usein. Jos olet setvinyt ongelmaa perusteellisesti, voit päätyä liioittelemaan ongelman tai oman ratkaisusi tärkeyttä. Muista, että mikään työkalu ei ole hyvä kaikkeen. Jos mieli-ideasi on vasara, etsi kollegoita, joilla on ruuvimeisseleitä, jakoavaimia ja mittanauhoja. Ole avoin muiden alojen ideoille.

• Numeroita mutta ei pelkkiä numeroita. Maailmaa ei voi ymmärtää ilman numeroita, mutta sitä ei voi ymmärtää ainoastaan numeroilla. Arvosta numeroita, koska ne kertovat todellisesta elämästä.

• Varo yksinkertaisia ideoita ja yksinkertaisia ratkaisuja. Historia on täynnä visionäärejä, jotka yksinkertaisilla utopistisilla näyillä perustelivat hirvittäviä tekoja. Suhtaudu myönteisesti monimutkaisuuteen. Yhdistele ideoita. Tee kompromisseja. Ratko ongelmia tapaus tapaukselta.”

9. SYYTTELYVAISTO 

”Syyttelyvaisto on viehtymys etsiä selvä, yksinkertainen syy siihen miksi jotain pahaa on tapahtunut.”

”Sama syytteluvaisto laukeaa, kun asiat sujuvat hyvin. ”Maine” tulee aivan yhtä helposti kuin ”moite”.”

”Syyttelypeli paljastaa usein mitä me pidämme tärkeimpinä asioina. Etsimme helposti pahiksia, jotka vahvistavat olemassa olevia uskomuksiamme. Vilkaistaanpa muutamaa ihmistä, joita mieluiten osoitamme sormella: sydämetöntä liikemiestä, valehtelevaa journalistia ja ulkomaalaisia.” 

”Samaten hillitse intoa syyttää mediaa valehtelemisesta (enimmäkseen se ei valehtele) tai vääristyneen maailmankuvan antamisesta (minkä se useimmiten tekee, mutta usein ei tahallaan). Vältä syyttämästä asiantuntijoita siitä, että he keskittyvät liikaa omiin intresseihinsä ja erikoisaloihinsa tai käsittävät asiat väärin (minkä he joskus tekevät, mutta usein hyvää tarkoittaen).”

”Vältä todella syyttämästä ketään yksittäistä ihmistä tai ihmisryhmää mistään. Koska ongelma on siinä, että kun yksilöimme pahiksen, ajattelu lakkaa. Ongelma on melkein aina mutkikkaampi. ” 

”Faktatietoisuutta on huomata, milloin etsitään syntipukkia ja muistaa, että yksilön syyttäminen vie usein huomion muista mahdollisista selityksistä ja kyvyn estää samanlaiset ongelmat tulevaisuudessa.”

”Syyttelyvaiston hallitsemiseksi vastusta syntipukin hakemista.

• Etsi syitä, älä pahiksia. Kun jokin menee pieleen, älä etsi yksilöä tai ryhmää syytettäväksi. Hyväksy se, että pahoja asioita tapahtuu ilman että kukaan on aikonut niin käyvän. Sen sijaan käytä energiasi ymmärtämään moninkertaisia keskinäisiä syitä tai järjestelmää, joka on tilanteen aiheuttanut.

• Etsi järjestelmiä, älä sankareita. Kun joku väittää saaneensa aikaan jotain hyvää, kysy olisiko niin tapahtunut joka tapauksessa, vaikka kyseinen yksilö ei olisi tehnyt mitään. Anna järjestelmälle edes vähän tunnustusta.”

10. HÄTÄVAISTO

Hätävaisto saa meidät haluamaan suoraa toimintaa välittömäksi koetun uhan edessä.

”Opi hallitsemaan hätävaistoa. Erikoistarjous! Vain tänään! Kun minun käsketään toimia heti, alan epäröidä. Useimmiten minut koetetaan vain saada lakkaamaan ajattelemasta selvästi.” 

Käytännön faktatietoisuutta on, ”että vuodesta 2014 lähtien Ruotsi seuraa kasvihuonekaasupäästöjä neljännesvuosittain (ensimmäisenä ja yhä ainoana maana maailmassa). Tämä on käytännön faktatietoisuutta. Kun sinua kutsutaan mukaan toimintaan, joskus hyödyllisintä on parantaa dataa.”

”Hallitaksesi hätävaistoa, ota pieniä askelia.

• Vedä henkeä. Kun hätävaistosi on lauennut, myös muut vaistot tulevat mukaan ja analysointi loppuu. Pyydä lisää aikaa ja tietoa. Asia on harvoin nyt tai ei koskaan ja harvoin joko/tai.

• Vaadi dataa. Jos jokin on kiireellistä ja tärkeää, se pitäisi mitata. Varo dataa, joka on asiaankuuluvaa mutta epätarkkaa tai tarkkaa mutta asiaankuulumatonta. Vain asiaankuuluva ja tarkka data on hyödyllistä.

• Varo povareita. Kaikki tulevaisuuden ennusteet ovat epävarmoja. Varo ennusteita, jotka eivät sitä myönnä. Vaadi skenaarioista koko vaihteluväli, ei vain parasta tai pahinta tapausta. Kysy miten usein kyseiset ennusteet ovat aiemmin osuneet oikeaan.

• Varo radikaalia toimintaa. Kysy mitkä tulevat olemaan sivuvaikutukset. Kysy miten ajatusta on testattu. Vaiheittaiset käytännön parannukset ja niiden vaikutuksen arviointi ovat vähemmän dramaattisia mutta tavallisesti tehokkaampia.” 

Mitä meidän pitäisi tehdä kirjan perusteella?

”Viisi globaalia uhkaa, joista meidän pitäisi kantaa huolta:

1. Globaali pandemia,

2. talousromahdus,

3. maailmansota,

4. ilmastonmuutos ja

5. äärimmäinen köyhyys.

”Niiden toteutuminen on hyvin mahdollista: kolme ensimmäistä ovat tapahtuneet jo aiemminkin ja kaksi muuta ovat parhaillaan käynnissä; lisäksi niistä jokaisella on mahdollisuus aiheuttaa valtaisaa kärsimystä joko suoraan tai välillisesti pysäyttämällä ihmiskunnan kehityksen vuosiksi tai vuosikymmeniksi.” 

Mitä minun pitäisi itse tehdä? 

Opetella faktojen maailma, koska:

”1. Faktoihin perustuvasta maailmankuvasta on enemmän hyötyä kun haetaan suuntaa elämässä, aivan kuten tarkasta GPS:stä on enemmän hyötyä kun etsitään tietä kaupungissa.

2. Faktoihin perustuva maailmankuva on mukavampi. Se aiheuttaa vähemmän stressiä ja toivottomuutta kuin dramaattinen maailmankuva yksinkertaisesti siitä syystä, että dramaattinen kuva on niin kielteinen ja pelottava.”

Yhteenveto

Kirja kuudella sanalla – ”Maailmaa ei voi ymmärtää ilman numeroita, ei myöskään pelkästään numeroilla. ”.

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Seneca: Elämän lyhyydestä

Kirjasta

Vaihtelu virkistää – ota haaste vastaan ja lue jotain sellaista mitä et muutoin tekisi? Siis lukisit kaksi tuhatta vuotta vanhoja kirjoituksia. Jopa jos inhoat selfhelppiä, niin älä jätä tätä kirjaa lukematta…. ”Senecan kirjoitukset edustavat selfhelp-kirjallisuutta. Ne antavat lukijalle neuvoja, miten elää parempaa elämää”. (Juhana Torkki)

Juhana Torkki on suomentanut roomalaisen Senecan (4 eKr. – 65 jKr.) ajatuksia elämästä. Pelkästään ajatus siitä, että luet toisella aikakaudella eläneen vanhan filosofin ja opettajan ajatuksia on kutkuttava. Toisekseen Torkin esipuhe – lyhyydestä huolimatta, on kirjan mukana tuoma bonus. Ja mikä hienointa kirja on vain 68 sivuinen. Sen lukemiseen ja Senecan iättömiin ajatuksiin voi käyttää huolella aikaa.

Minkälainen kirja oli?

Jos Seneca lähettäisi twiitin, niin hän jyrähtäisi siinä ”Oleellista ei ole, mitä kestät, vaan miten sen kestät.”

Tai ”Menneisyys on elämämme pyhä ja erotettu alue, nostettu kaiken inhimillisen hairahduksen yläpuolelle, kohtalon vallan ulottumattomiin; sitä ei ahdista puute eikä pelko, eivätkä tautien hyökkäykset. Sitä ei voi turmella eikä ottaa pois. Se on ikuinen ja horjumaton omistus.”

Noissa ajatuksissa yhdistyy, niin ankara stoalainen elämäntyyli kuin oppi ihmisen elinkaaresta. Seneca kirjoitus on antiikin ajan niin selfhelp- kuin scientific management-opas. Hän neuvoo ajan ja omaisuuden käytössä, henkilöstövalinnoissa kuin terveellisestä elämäntyylistä sekä varoittaa juopottelusta ja ylensyönnistä.

Kuten jo edellä mainostin, niin kirja on erittäin nopea lukuinen. Lukemisesta säästyvän voit helposti investoida Senecan ajatusten erittelemiseen. Hänen ajatukset ovat pisimmilläänkin kahden kolmen lauseen mittaisia – jopa suorastaan, heittoja. Niiden tulkitsemiseen kannattaa jättää aikaa.

Mitkä ovat kirjan keskeiset ideat? 

Kirja jakautuu kolmeen osaan, joissa Seneca kertoo ajatuksiaan elämän lyhyydestä, joutilaisuudesta ja johdatuksesta. Kirjan keskeinen idea on, että ”miten käyttää aika viisaasti.”

ELÄMÄN LYHYYDESTÄ

· Ensimmäinen oppi on fokusointi. Pitää välttää tyhjän toimittamista. ”Kaikkein lyhin ja rauhattomin on niiden elämä, jotka unohtavat menneen, laiminlyövät nykyhetken ja pelkäävät tulevaa. Saavuttuaan elämän päätepisteeseen he huomaavat onnettomina liian myöhään, että heillä oli kaiken aikaa kiire tyhjää toimittamaan.”

· Toinen oppi on elämäntapa: ”rakkaus hyveeseen, hyveenmukainen elämä, himojen huomiotta jättäminen, taito elää ja kuolla sekä syvä rauha kaikesta.”

· Kolmas oppi kuvaa suhdetta työhön. ”Sama asenne on monilla: heidän halunsa tehdä töitä kestää kauemmin kuin heidän kykynsä.”

””Mihin elämä sitten pitäisi käyttää jos ei hifistelyyn ja parturissa istumiseen? Siihen Seneca vastaa kirjoituksissaan. ”On olemassa kolme tapaa elää”, kirjoittaa Seneca. ”Yksi on omistautuminen nautinnoille, toinen mietiskelylle, kolmas toiminnalle.””

· Nautintoihin keskittyvää elämää – kovin suosittu vaihtoehto antiikin Roomassa – Seneca piti vähiten arvokkaana.

· Ihmiset ovat lihoneet siksi etteivät liiku, he ovat tulleet heikoiksi, he väsyvät jo oman painonsa liikuttelusta, saati että jaksaisivat tehdä töitä!

· Monessa tekstissään Seneca puntaroi, kumpi kahdesta jäljellejäävästä on parempi: mietiskely, contemplatio, vai actio, vastuunkanto valtion asioista?

· Samoin jotkin sellaiset asiat, kautta Herkuleen, joita ylistetään ja tavoitellaan, ovat nauttijoilleen vahingoksi. Tällaisia asioita ovat ylensyönti ja juopottelu ja kaikki muut tappavat nautinnot.

· Kukaan ei tiedä, mihin pystyt, et edes sinä itse.” Voidakseen tuntea itsensä on asetuttava testiin. Vain kokeilemalla saa selville, mihin pystyy.

Koska Seneca oli ymmärtänyt, että sekä aika että raha ovat maailman niukimmat resurssit, niin siksi niihin pitäisi suhtautua suurella pieteetillä:

· Samaan tapaan elämä avautuu suurena sille, joka osaa järjestää sen viisaasti.

· Ajankäytössä pitäisi olla yhtä huolellinen kuin rahan. Aikaa ei saa tuhlata…. Kehotan siis: käy elämäsi tilikirjat läpi ja laske. Huomaat, että vain hyvin harvat päivät jäivät itsesi käyttöön, jäänteet joista ei muuhun ollut.

· Helppoa on käyttää omaisuutta, vaikka kuinkakin niukkaa, jos sen määrä tunnetaan tarkasti. Huolellisemmin on varjeltava sellaista, josta et tiedä milloin se loppuu.

· Ja kuitenkin: menneisyys on elämämme pyhä ja erotettu alue, nostettu kaiken inhimillisen hairahduksen yläpuolelle, kohtalon vallan ulottumattomiin; sitä ei ahdista puute eikä pelko, eivätkä tautien hyökkäykset.

Lopuksi on siteerataan ajattelijaa itseään, joka taitavasti kuvaa miten jo silloin uskottiin, että parhaat ihmiset lähetetään tärkeimpiin tehtäviin…. ”Miksi jumala vaivaa kaikkein parhaita ihmisiä sairauksilla, kuolemansurulla tai muilla vastoinkäymisillä? Siksi että armeijassakin kaikkein vahvimmat lähetetään vaarallisimpiin paikkoihin. Kenraali lähettää valikoiduimmat erikoisjoukot tekemään vihollisleiriin yöllisen yllätysiskun, tiedustelemaan tien tai ajamaan vihollisen joukot ulos turvastaan. Kukaan noista, jotka lähtevät suorittamaan tehtäväänsä, ei sano: ”Kenraali teki minua kohtaan väärin”, vaan: ”Se oli kenraalilta oikea ratkaisu!””

JOUTILAISUUDESTA

”Kaksi koulua, stoalaisuus ja epikurolaisuus, ovat kyllä tässäkin asiassa kaukana toisistaan, mutta molemmat johdattavat joutilaisuuteen omia teitään. Epikuros sanoo: ”Viisas ihminen ei ota osaa yhteisiin asioihin, ellei siihen ole jokin erityinen syy.” Zenon sanoo: ”Viisas mies osallistuu yhteisiin asioihin, ellei jokin erityinen syy estä häntä.”

Toinen on asettanut joutilaisuuden päämääräksi, toinen etsii siihen syytä.

On olemassa kolme tapaa elää, ja tavallista on kysyä, mikä noista kolmesta on paras. Yksi on omistautuminen nautinnoille, toinen mietiskelylle, kolmas toiminnalle.”

JOHDATUKSESTA

”Antiikin aikana yleisen stoalaisen ajattelun mukaan maailmaa ohjaa järki (ratio). Asiat eivät tapahdu sattumalta vaan hyvän suunnitelman mukaan. Tämä nostattaa kysymyksen: miksi sitten tapahtuu myös pahoja asioita? Miksi pahoja asioita tapahtuu hyvillekin ihmisille? Miksi elämä ei tunnu kohtelevan kaikkia oikeudenmukaisesti?

Kun siis näet, että hyvät ja jumalten hyväksymät ihmiset joutuvat näkemään vaivaa, hikoilemaan ja kiipeämään tuskaisasti ylöspäin, kun taas pahat kirmaavat ja kylpevät nautinnoissa, ajattele tätä: omissa lapsissamme ihailemme malttia, orjien lapsissa rämäpäisyyttä. Omille lapsille pidämme kovempaa kuria, orjien lapsia kannustamme uskaliaisuuteen. Pidä siis kirkkaana mielessä, että samoin toimivat jumalat. Hyvää ihmistä jumala ei hemmottele: hän koettelee, karaisee, valmistaa tätä itselleen.

Etkö näe, miten erilainen on isien ja äitien tapa osoittaa hellyyttä? Isät pitävät huolta, että lapset herätetään ajallaan opiskelemaan, he eivät salli lasten lorvia edes vapaapäivinä, ja he puristavat lapsistaan hikeä, joskus myös kyyneleitä. Äidit antavat lämpöisen sylinsä, he tahtovat pitää lapsen suojissaan, niin että tämä ei koskaan itke, ei koskaan ole suruissaan eikä joudu kärsimään vaivaa. Jumalalla on hyviä ihmisiä kohtaan isän mieli. Hän rakastaa heitä lujalla rakkaudella.

Vasta kun hyve näyttää, mitä kaikkea se kestää, näemme kuinka suuri ja vahva se on. Tiedät, että juuri näin pitäisi toimia hyvän ihmisen: hänen ei pidä pelätä kovia ja vaikeita koettelemuksia, ei valittaa kohtaloaan vaan ottaa kaikki myönteisesti ja kääntää kaikki myönteiseksi. Oleellista ei ole, mitä kestät, vaan miten sen kestät.”

Mitä meidän pitäisi tehdä kirjan perusteella?

Tyhmä ihmiskunta – jo Senecan ajoista tiedetty mikä on ihmiselle hyödyllistä ja mikä on haitallista. Miksi vieläkin arvomme ”itsestäänselvyyksiä”, kun vastaus on jo ollut Senecan nenän edessä vuodesta 4 eKr. Senecan kirjoitukset saavat minut epäilemään, että onko ihmiskunta todellakaan jaksanut keskittyä olennaiseen kun kaikki tieto on vuosituhansia ollut olemassa.

Meidän pitää ehdottomasti noudattaa Senecan kolme suurta ajatusta:

1) ”Samaan tapaan elämä avautuu suurena sille, joka osaa järjestää sen viisaasti.”

2) ”Ihmiset ovat lihoneet siksi etteivät liiku, he ovat tulleet heikoiksi, he väsyvät jo oman painonsa liikuttelusta, saati että jaksaisivat tehdä töitä!”

3) ”Ajankäytössä pitäisi olla yhtä huolellinen kuin rahan.”

Mitä minun pitäisi itse tehdä? 

Tutkia stoalaista ja epikuroslaista elämäntyyliä.

Yhteenveto

Kirja kuudella sanalla – ””Perämiehen opit tuntemaan myrskyssä, sotilaan taistelussa”.