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Saari: Aki Hintsa – voittamisen anatomia

Kirjasta

Voittamisen anatomia on uskottava F1-, work-life balance- ja self-help -kirja. Jopa niin hyvä, että saattaisin lukea sen uudestaan. Oskari Saari on taitavasti yhdistänyt oman F1-toimittajan ammattitaidon sekä ”haamukirjoittajan” roolin.

Ainoa asia minkä keksin kirjasta parannettavaa on, niin minä olisin pärjännyt vähemmällä Afrikka- sekä F1-ratakuvauksilla. Toiseksi Hintsan Core-konsepti on melko täydellinen, mutta olisi kuvitellut että se sisältävän myös taloudellisen toimeliaisuuden – varallisuuden kasvattaminen, näkökulman. Se puuttuminen saattaa toki johtua siitä että Hintsa oli fokusoinut lääkärin ydinosaamisalueilla. 

Kirjan lopussa kuvaillaan Hintsa Performancen palvelukonseptia ja sokerina pohjalla esitellään ”joka-johtajan” aamujumppaohjeet.

Minkälainen kirja oli?

Kirjan keskeinen sisältö on kuvailla Hintsan Core-konseptia, jonka on rakentunut hänen lääkärin ammatin, henkilökohtaisiin kokemusperäisiin analyysien kautta sekä seuraamalla Haile Gebrselassien harjoittelua.

Kirja on erittäin kilpa-autoilijamainen. Paljon tiukkoja käänteitä, monia-monia asiakastarinoita case-tyyppisesti ja jopa testimoniaaleja. Esim. Marko Ahtisaaresta kertova luku on testimoniaalia Hintsan menetelmälle, jopa melkein tunnustuksellinen. Meille suomalaisille se on jopa koskettava luku, sillä siihen liittyy kuvauksia Nokian viimeisistä hetkistä matkapuhelin-tuotteiden parissa.

Mitkä ovat kirjan keskeiset ideat? 

”Hintsan konseptin ydin on omista perusarvoista tavoitteita kohti ponnistava toiminta.”

Kirja perustuu Hintsan uskonnollisen yhteisön työkalusta jalostettuun Core-konseptiin tai valmentamismenetelmään. Fida käytti projekteissaan LFA-nimistä menetelmää (logical framework approach), jossa projekti jaetaan osaprojekteihin ja niihin sovitaan erilliset tavoitteet. Tästä Hintsa jalosti itselleen CORE-konseptin (Circle of success). Sen keskeisenä tavoitteena on, että valmennettava – urheilija tai yritysjohtaja, osaa vastata kolmeen kysymykseen:

1.   Kuka minä olen? Oman identiteetin määrittely.

2.   Mitä minä haluan? Omien tavoitteiden määrittely.

3.   Hallitsetko omaa elämääsi? Esteiden tunnistaminen ja poistaminen.

Arvot näyttelevät isoa roolia kirjassa. Arvot ovat päätöksenteon ankkureita ja ne muuttuvat todeksi teoissa sekä uhrauksissa. Tavoitteiden pitää perustua arvoihin eikä toisinpäin. Ja nykyhetkeen pitää olla tyytyväinen, vaikka tavoitteita ei olisi saavutettu.

Core tai hyvinvointi muodostuu kuudesta eri osakokonaisuudesta:

1.   Yleinen terveys

a.   Tämä on Hintsan mallin lähtöruutu ja päätepiste.

2.   Biomekaniikka

a.   Kehon ja tukirakenteiden sekä nivelten päivittäinen liikkuvuus.

3.   Palautuminen

a.   Nukkua pitäisi 7½-8½ tuntia.

4.   Ravinto

a.   Syö kaikkia kasviksia, niin että saat sateenkaaren värit lautasellesi.

5.   Fyysinen aktiivisuus

a.   Kävele vähintään 8 000 – 10 000 askelta päivässä ja liiku monipuolisesti.

6.   Henkinen energia

a.   Anna ja saa energiaa läheisiltäsi, työstä sekä itseltäsi.

Hintsalle hyvinvointi ei ole osiensa summa vaan tulo:

·        Uni

o  Nukkumaan pitäisi aina mennä samaan aikaan, sängyssä ei saisi olla sähköisiä laitteita eikä liikaa valoa. Kofeiini eikä alkoholi takaa hyvää yöunta.

·        Rakasta vettä

o  Vihreä tee, hapankirsikkamehu, melatoniini tai B12-vitamiini auttavat mm. unensaantia.

·        80-20                    

o  Syö 80 % ajasta järkevästi – paljon kasviksia ja vähän punaista lihaa. Voit rentoilla loput 20 % esim. herkuttelemalla perjantaina ja lauantaina illallisella.

·        Keskity keskivartalon tukilihasten kuntoon

o  Vatsa- ja selkälihasten monipuolinen huoltaminen.

o  Venyttele, koska vanhuus kangistaa.

Mitä meidän pitäisi tehdä kirjan perusteella?

Vähintään pitää tehdä kaksi asiaa:

·        Jokaisen meistä pitää osata luetella henkilökohtaiset arvot. ”Jos arvosi eivät maksa sinulle mitään, ne eivät ole arvoja vaan mielipiteitä” (Jari Sarasvuo).

·        Sekä pystyä vastaamaan Hintsan kolmeen kysymykseen: Kuka minä olen? Mitä minä haluan? Hallitsetko omaa elämääsi? 

Mitä minun pitäisi itse tehdä? 

Syödä sateenkaari päivässä.

Yhteenveto

Kirja kuudella sanalla – ”Työ tulee ennen voittoa, jopa sanakirjassa”.

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Jack Welch: Winning

How was the book?

”This is the only book you have to read about leadership” was the recommendation to me. Sounds like a great challenge. Of course I took the challenge.

Will the “Winning” be a classic or not? When I started to read the book I was thinking that this book smells like a classic. Book is built clearly from the top management agenda. It creates ideas how you might be winning. What you need in order to win. And how to act if you want to win.

First, Jack Welch is very clear on definitions such as mission, values, leadership etc. And he is also clear on defining what’s the scope of top management, how to run business, what do to with people.

Second, the book is filled with has rule of thumb:

·      Three steps how to develop your strategy, five slides and big a-ha.

·      Five steps of crisis management.

·      Nine rules for a leader what he should do.

·      Three common mistakes with (internal) start-ups.

·      The acid test for assessing people about integrity, intelligence and maturity.

·      4E (and 1-P) where you should be looking energy, energize, edge and execution. Then you might find passion.

·      ”Winning” has a great deal of resembles with David Ogilvy’s thinking about that ”the good ones know more.”

Third, Jack Welch is very fond with candor, people and change. He truly enjoys the concept of candor and the behavior that it sparks. Welch is open and very sincere about people. The 20-70-10 rule where people are divided into top 20 percent, middle 70 percent and bottom 10 percent. Top 20 is showered with gold. Middle 70 is kept motivated. And underperformers are helped to find better opportunities from outside. Everybody’s position is based on merits and performance. The top20 cannot be filled with buddies and head nodders.

Change should a relatively orderly process, but “you have to be changing all the time if you want to stay in the game, let alone win”. 

What are the key learnings of the book? 

Leadership

–       Is about people doing business with other people. Don’t get technical.

–       Leaders use candor and talk about winning.

–       “Internal communications can be your worst enemy. In case you fail in it.”

Strategy and budgeting

–       Find your big a-ha, communicate and execute

–       No big think. Make sure it is somewhat concrete

–       It means making clear-cut choices about how to compete. Way forward?

–       “You pick up a general direction and implement like hell.”

Build capital

–       This can be your understanding how things work, with whom and with certain pace.

–       Spare ”capital of others” i.e. your boss, collaques etc.

Get luck

–       How to get promoted? First you need some luck.

–       A chance plays a part in promotions.

How should we change according to the book?

Bring change, people and candor to the agenda. Topics that we all should use more and more.

What should I personally do? 

Use the five strategy slides and develop a big a-ha.

Summary

Well, was this a classic? It might be. Winning is easy to read and remember. Even inspiring. There is no threshold in Welch’s key messages. He has great insights on how run a global giant and he also recognizes that people are people.

The book in six words – Becoming a leader starts with your luck! 

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Peters & Waterman: In Search of Excellence

How was the book?

Why should you read ”In Search of Excellence” book. Thomas J. Peters and Robert H. Waterman Jr. wrote the book in early 80’s and it was published 1982. The companies that were reviewed in this book have had truly excellent financial performance for the past twenty years in order to be part of the analysis. So the book is nearly 27 years old, the cases are much older than 27 years and some definitions used in the book are not very contemporary. Before starting this review we can ask one crucial question – are the learnings of Peter and Waterman still valid?

My answer is yes and no. No, because many of the learnings are elementary and self-evident from the current corporation’s perspective. Yes, if you have not lived the hard facts of running a large corporation. The book is needed to understand the basics of a large corporation. It’s also beneficial to learn how the current management theory has evolved from works of Peter Drucker to Jim Collins. This a ”back to basics” kind of book. The modern corporation has all or should have all these features by now that Peters and Waterman are explaining.

”In Search of Excellence” is a business book based on analysis of 43 American large corporations and out of those were interviewed 21 corporations. The method is like in the ”Good to Great” by Jim Collins. A side notion is that Peters and Waterman were ahead of their time, because they cited the famous duo – Kahneman and Tversky, on the representativeness i.e. how we are more influenced more by stories than by data. 

Also in the book was introduced a practices and concepts novel in corporate life globally in early 1980’s. For example a practice called ”MBWA” (Management by Walking Around) which meant that the management should also be visible. People working for you need to have informal constant contact or communication with management and being present is one of the most efficient ways of communication. Importance of culture: ”Profit is like health. You need it, and the more the better. But it’s not why you exist.” Culture as a corporate concept started to emerge in the early 1980’s.

 The book that I read was 340 pages long. The authors used 1/3 of the book before they even got to the point i.e. started to present results from the analysis. Second critique is that the results presented were only qualitative. I would have preferred quantitative analysis also. This critique does not lessen the wealth of understanding of management theory. 

 What are the key learnings?

 The writers were eager on forming a new theory how the excellent corporations ”behave”. Their new theory was built on three pillars:

1.    Breaking old habits and shifting attention which includes

a.    Regular reorganization

b.    Major thrust overlays

c.     Experimental units

d.    Systems focusing on one dimension

2.    Stability

a.    Simple, basic underlying form

b.    Dominating values (superordinate goals)

c.     Minimizing/simplifying interfaces

3.    Entrepreneurship

a.    ”Small is beautiful” units

b.    Task forces, and other problem-solving implementation groups

c.     Measurement systems based on amount of entrepreneurship, implementation

The new theory is supported with eight basics of excellent management practice or attributes that the writers found from the excellent companies:

1) A bias for action, for getting on with it.

The excellent companies had the standard procedure of ”Do it, fix it, try it.”

2) Close to the customer. These companies learn from the people they serve.

Excellent companies are close to the customer. Especially they are very close to the lead users. Other companies just talk about it.

3) Autonomy and entrepreneurship.

”The most discouraging fact of big corporate life is the loss of what got them big in the first place: INNOVATION”

4) Productivity through people.

”Nothing is worse for the morale that a lack of information down in the ranks. NETMA (Nobody Ever Tells Me Anything)”

5) Hands-on, value driven.

Figure out your value system and decide what your company stands for.

6) Stick to the knitting.

Robert W. Johnson: ”Never acquire a business you don’t know how to run.” When acquiring a company stick very close to your knitting and you will outperform the others.”

7) Simple form, lean staff.

Top-level staff are lean, keep the corporate staff fewer than 100 people and newer go for the matrix organization.

8) Simultaneous loose-tight properties.

Autonomy pushed to the shop floor and fanatic centralists around the few core values they hold dear.

Excellent corporations were brilliant on the basics. No hoopla, no nothing fuzzy. Simply K.I.S.S. The companies worked very hard to keep things simple in a complex world. They wanted to be simplistic. As Peters and Waterman elegantly express: ”They persisted. They insisted on top quality. They fawned on their customers. They listened to their employees and treated them like adults. They allowed their innovative product and service ”champions” long tethers. They allowed some chaos in return for quick action and regular experimentation.” We could stop here. This is the best that any book can offer. In these six sentences the writers explained the core formula of an excellent corporation.

How should we change according to the book?

The experienced boss has good instincts – his vocabulary of old-friend patterns tells him immediately whether things are going well or badly. Besides the instinct an excellent boss needs day-to-day management practices according to the book are:

·       Know your numbers, because business is a numbers game

·       Build momentum by accumulating small successes

·       Have only three to five objectives for the year

·       Be action oriented to maintain innovation

·       Support diversity to maintain creativity

·       Ask for one-page ”memos”

·       Embrace simplicity

·       Do MBWA IRL (or with Social Media)

Other notions about corporate life that I would interesting in the book were:

·       Excellent companies can separate creativity and innovation. ”Creativity is thinking about new things. Innovation is doing new things.” So support diversity.

·       Poorer performing companies may have strong cultures, but the cultures are dysfunctional.

·       Past personal success apparently leads to more persistence, higher motivation or something that makes us to do better.

·       People are good on holding six to seven pieces of data in our short-term memory. And that’s why even companies should focus on few key business values and few objectives.

Useful one-liners:

·       ”Label a man a loser and he’ll start acting like one”

·       ”Nothing succeeds like success”

·       ”More than two objectives is no objectives.” Watchword of Texas Instrument.

·       ”Sell it to the sales force.”

·       ”What gets measured gets done.”

·       ”But above all try something” Franklin Delano Roosevelt.

What should I personally do?

Support diversity and embrace innovation.

Summary

The book in six words – ”Eighty percent of success is showing up” Woody Allen. 

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Hamel & Prahalad: Competing for the Future

How was the book?

What is the core competence of Amazon? One day delivery, vast inventory of products, hardware like Alexa or Kindle, people endorsing and commenting the products available etc. The answer is according to Gary Hamel and C.K. Prahalad that it is all of these features. A core competence is a bundle of skills and technologies and a core competence is a source of competitive advantage. The core competence can tested be with three questions:

  1. Does it have a huge contribution to customer perceived value?
  2. Is it competitively unique?
  3. Can it extend from a product to the entire market?

What are the key learnings?

The goal of the book is ”to help managers imagine future and, having imagined it, create it.” ”The book is also about how to build and apply that new view of strategy as it is about how to get to the future first.” The primary challenge is to become the author of industry transformation.

Gary Hamel and C.K. Prahalad premise is that ”a company can control its own destiny only if it understands how to control the destiny of its industry. A threat to the future is a denominator manager who sees business as an extension to asset productivity. Their line of business is downsizing which is equivalent to corporate anorexia.

What does it take to get to the future first?

  1. An understanding of how competition for the future is different.
  2. A process for finding and gaining insight into tomorrow’s opportunities.
  3. An ability to energize the company from top-bottom for what may be a long and arduous journey toward the future.
  4. The capacity to outrun competitors and get to the future first, without taking undue risks.

Insight of tomorrow’s opportunities without foresight of the tomorrow’s market is nothing. You should get both and also acquire a strategic architecture which provides a blueprint for building the competencies needed to dominate future markets. Core competencies are built from product leadership and portfolio of competencies, according Hamel and Prahalad. 

Future competition is different from current and to understand what are the differences is the key to success in future. To evaluate the company’s portfolio of competencies one must ask that ”what opportunities are we uniquely positioned to exploit?” Where is the future? It can be found from the intersection of changes. The changes can occur everywhere from geopolitics to technology. Competition of the future happens in different in two ways – It often takes place in unstructured arenas and it is more like a triathlon than a 100-meter sprint.

Getting to the future first is a question of map and the map of past is not the map of future. The competition in the future happens for tomorrow’s industry structure and within today’s industry structure. Race to the future occurs in three different stages:

  1. Competition for Industry Foresight and Intellectual Leadership
  2. Competition to Foreshorten Migration Paths
  3. Competition for Market Position and Market Share.

What is foresight made out of?

  • The company must be able imagine that what kind of customer benefits one can provide in five to fifteen years?
  • What kind of competencies the company needs to build in order to fulfill the customer benefits?
  • How should the customer interface be reconfigured?

Managers must be able to clearly articulate five to six fundamental industry trends that most threaten its firm’s success. Otherwise they are not in charge of the destiny. To create the future it’s the job entire company, not just geeks or top management. Creating future rests on imagination and prediction as well as Wisdom of Crowds.

Strategic architecture plays a big role in the thinking of Hamel and Prahalad. They see that the new benefits or functionalities are the key to strategic architecture and thereafter comes the understanding that what kind of core competencies are needed in order to create the new benefits. Strategic architecture is a high-level blueprint for the deployment of new benefits. It can be also called as ”a high-level map of interstate highways, not a detailed map of city.” But the strategic architecture doesn’t last for ever. Be agile about the the map.

The ultimate test is a question for a random sample of 25 senior managers that ”how will the future of your industry be different?” While analyzing the results look for these five topics:

  1. How far is the future?
  2. How encompassing is its view of the future?
  3. How competitively unique is its view of the future?
  4. Is there a consensus about how different is the future?
  5. Can they reflect the future into short-term actions?

”Future first” or ”get to the future first” could be the key slogans for Hamel and Prahalad. In many occasions the emphasis the timing. Obviously that is one of the most difficult tasks – to get the timing right, but without it the company will be investing too little too late or vice versa.

Why to compete on shaping the future? Because it can give the company ”a virtual monopoly.” Next question would be that how to get to the future first? The recipe about 20 years ago was:

  • Create alliances with leading-edge customers.
  • Perform prototype market testing.
  • Undertake joint development with potential competitors.
  • Study competing technologies etc.

Coalitions are something that Hamel and Prahalad are talking a lot, but today it is a reality in our networked economy. In a sense the writers were seeing the future.

The fuel to future is emotional and intellectual energy of you people, your resourcefulness. Not war cry nor piles of cash. Strategic architecture needs strategic intent to help people to go that extra mile. Your people need to know where they are going. Strategic intent is the command that enegizes your people. The aspirational goal or goals must not be multiple and competing, but focus is ”not an excuse to ignore everything else.” Don’t be a company that is overmanaged and underled.

How should we change according to the book?

Build your strategy on competencies that will deeply contribute to future customer value. For example circular or sharing economy. How will the trends affect to the customer value and what are the consequences after customer value has shifted to circular and sharing economy.

Nowadays we are talking a lot about artificial intelligence, digitalization, urbanisation etc trends. Which of these opportunities will be oversold and which of the risks are undermanaged? Of the strategy itself Hamel and Prahalad are expecting to see:

  • Long-term point of view about industry evolution
  • Ambition and aspiration that is derisked through the tools of resource leverage.
  • An intellectual and emotional commitment that ensures consistency and constancy.

Last is a test with twenty questions about the future. It is in the end of the book. Why would you not do your test about the future? Even before you start the strategic planning.

What should I personally do?

I got curious about this book, because the Ringtone book by Wilson and Doz told that the framework by Hamel and Prahalad was key tool for Nokia leadership. They saw that the idea about core competencies was a great fir for Nokia. Thinking differently is about getting the leadership team debating about future. What happens to the company and where does the company have to be in five and ten years. These questions were seen valuable in the Nokia leadership team.

The book builds a great insight into core competencies, but time has done it job. The book is also very focused on products. It does not undermine the customer value, but still the greatest emphasis is on products. In today’s leadership agenda big emphasis merely on products would have demoralizing effect, because we have just learned ways to work with customers and their needs. Competing for the future is pro experiments and cultural change, but main emphasis is on products.

What should I do? Remember that pre-emptive action towards the competition happens via you strategy and execution plan.

Summary

Six words – “Failure is the child of unrealistic expectations and managerial incompetence.”

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Surowiecki: The Wisdom of Crowds

How was the book?

You should read this. You might not agree with all the arguments by James Surowiecki, but he will give you new perspectives.

Experts vs. groups is the fundamental question of this book. Great virtue of collective decision-making is that ”errors people make effectively cancel themselves out.” The Wisdom of Crowds is an argument against ”our excessive faith in the single individual decision maker”, because it’s hard to identify a true expert and he also has humans error – biases and blindspots.

James Surowiecki is ”merely” a staff writer at the New Yorker. My expectations were fairly low not because of the writers profession, but the topic seemed so self-evident. I was wrong; the book has intelligence and deep understanding of human nature.

What are the key learnings?

Learnings are:

  • On average people get things right without any communications.
  • Some people will do better, but on average they get it close enough.
  • The simplest way to get reliably good answers is just to ask the group each time.

One of the key lessons is that ”we don’t always know where the good information is.” The key to wisdom of crowds is diversity, independence and decentralization or private judgement.

Surowiecki uses a lot of examples to demonstrate the power of crowds. Examples of accuracy of crowds:

  • Francis Galton noticed that groups are remarkably intelligent on averaging things. For example the ox on the market which weighed 1198 pounds. And the guestimate was 1197 pounds.
  • Who Wants to Be a Millionaire audience got the answers right 91 % of the time.
  • On Hazel Knights tests the accuracy was on room temperature 72,4 degrees when the correct was 72 degrees.
  • In case Challenger the crowd got the company responsible of the accident right – which was Thiokol.
  • Google in built on wisdom of crowds.

Collective intelligence has three problems:

  • Cognition
  • Coordination
  • Cooperation

Conditions that make good group intelligence are:

  • Diversity
  • Independence
  • Private judgement

About diversity. James G. March and Scott Page have studied diversity and the learnings from their studies indicate that too smart teams doesn’t work well compare to teams that have also less knowledgeable team members. In fact, people who know less will improve the group’s performance. Alternatively, the ”homogeneous groups are great doing what they do well, but they become progressively less able to investigate alternatives. They spend too much time exploiting and not enough time exploring.” The gains comes from diversity. The value of expertise is overrated. 

Forecasting is difficult even for experts. J. Scott Armstrong has noted ”expertise and accuracy are unrelated.” Therefore, expert thinking and forecasting have little to do compared to crowd thinking. Experts are as likely to disagree as to agree. Experts are also surprisingly bad at calibrating their judgements, because they routinely overestimate the likelihood that they are right. The problem is that experts do not recognize that they are wrong and especially how wrong they got. So chasing a guru who knows everything is a waste of time. Pool of gurus is much better – wisdom of crowds. This doesn’t mean that there would not be people who can outperform group of gurus. For example Warren Buffet has outperformed S&P 500 Index since the 1960s. Try to find smart people, but not the smartest, because he might lead you astray.

Cognitive diversity is important for wise decision-making. You need it to conceptualize problems in a novel way. Homogenous groups tend to do groupthinking. Groupthinking ”shares an illusion of invulnerability, a willingness to rationalize easy possible counterarguments.” Bay of Pigs is a classic example of groupthinking. In addition, Salomon Asch has demonstrated in his experiments of three same size lines that people tend give up on their opinion if the group has different opinion. 70% of test subjects fell pray, because of peer pressure. They didn’t want to stand out. Diversity is important also, because it helps individuals to express more freely their opinion. 

About independence. ”Independence of opinion is both a crucial ingredient in collectively wise decisions and one of the hardest things to keep intact.” Independence means relative freedom from the influence of others and it is important to intelligent decision making. Why is it so important? ”First, it keeps the mistakes that people make from becoming correlated. Second, ”independent individuals are more likely to have new information” which gives diverse perspective and you won’t be making the group any dumber. Being independent is difficult, because we are social beings and we want to learn which is social process. Surowiecki sees that the more people tend to socialize with each other the more there will be personal contact and the likelihood that group’s decision will be less wise. A controversial observation that should be considered in team building. Surowiecki asks that ”Can people make collectively intelligent decisions even when they are in constant interaction with each other?”

Social proof is a concept that was tested by Stanley Milgram, Leonard Bickman and Lawrence Berkowitz in 1968. The put people on a corner of a street looking up in the sky. The more there were people staring in the sky the more other people stopped and started looking also. I.e. crowd becomes more influential as it becomes bigger. The governing assumption is that ”the best thing to do is just to follow along.” 

Hearding should be noticed, because it explains that why people are following the same strategy although there would an incentive to follow alternative strategy. Somehow, people see that following the heard is a safe bet. For example during the Bowling bubble in the 1950s. The stocks of AMF and Brunswick were bought with out the understanding of the limitations of the bowling market. Or as John Maynard Keynes has written ”Wordly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally.” 

Information cascade plays a vital role in decision-making. It is a process how the decisions are made. The groups are better on making decisions than individuals, but individuals are better on coming up with solutions than groups. A successful recipe for making decision is that one should have a lot private information and pay less attention to what everyone else is saying. ”The more important the decision, the more likely it is that the group’s collective verdict will be right.”

Decentralization is a key ingredient in wise decision-making. Weakness of decentralization is that no one guarantees that information available somewhere will be available elsewhere. Strength of decentralization is that is ”encourages independence and specialization on the one hand while still allowing people to coordinate their activities and solve difficult problems on the other.” Linux is an example of decentralization or any other crowdsourced system. 

Norms and convention play a vital role in complex world. And the most successful norms are internalized. The Milgrams experiment of asking people to give their seat in subway is a test of internalized norms. The test person who asks the sitting subject are both playing their internalized norms and conventions. Test person doesn’t have the guts to ask the seat and the subject doesn’t have the guts to say no (internalized norm) or she feels that she has earned the seat, because she was there earlier (convention).

People are odd and the ”ultimatum game” underlines that. When two persons are given a chance to share 10 USD, typically less than 2 USD offers are rejected not because that’s more than nothing, but because the receiver feels that the other party is getting too much by having 8 USD. Receiver wants to punish the greedy counterparty. Moreover, that’s why typically offers tend to yield around 5 USD. Expect in a case where the offering party has earned the position on making offers for example via test. People want to see a relationship between accomplishment and reward.

Virtues of decentralization are:

  • The more people have responsibility of their own environment the more they are engaged
  • Decentralization makes easier to coordinate. Hard to believe, but the writer suggests that Zara for example does this brilliantly.

How should we change according to the book?

Vote is a great way to aggregating the opinion of the members of the group. Do not emphasize consensus over dissent. Second, ”group decisions are no inherently inefficient.” Third, the groups should really have power to make decisions, take responsibility.

Talkativeness is petrol for the group, because it helps the people to think and make wise decisions.

Making decisions have two separate ways – evidence-based or verdict-based. The decision situation should not start by making conclusions. Share all the information and talk a lot about the topic every day. 

Shadow of the future is a great way to cooperate. When everybody knows that there will be work done in the future it will build durability of the relationship.

What should I personally do?

Follow the shadow.

Summary

The book in six words – ”Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?” Harry Warner of Warner Bros. (1927)

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Peter Drucker: The Effective Executive

Peter Drucker: The Effective Executive – The Definitive Guide to Getting the Right Things Done

How was the book?

Peter Drucker is king of listing things. It all starts with his main messages. He has two main messages on how to become the effective executive. To become effective the executive needs to do certain simple things. And to learn how to become the effective executive. ”All the effective ones have had to learn to be effective”, because effectiveness is not inborn.

What are the key learnings?

How to become the effective executive? The first you have to manage oneself for effectiveness. Second, to learn to use the scarcest resource – time, correctly. Third, you have to have an action plan otherwise you will become a prisoner of events. Fourth, not only executives decisions matter – decisions made at every level matter.

There are eight simple practices that an effective executive must follow:

  1. They ask ”What needs to be done?”
  2. They ask ”What is right for the enterprise?”
  3. They develop action plans.
  4. They took responsibility for decisions.
  5. They took responsibility for communicating.
  6. They were focused on opportunities rather than problems.
  7. They ran productive meetings.
  8. They thought and said ”we” rather than ”I”.

The first two gives them the knowledge they need. The next four helped the to convert this knowledge into effective action. The last two ensured that the whole organization felt responsible and accountable.

Chester Barnard (1938) brought up the wisdom that organizations are held together by information rather than by ownership or command.

Executive realities are:

  • The time belongs to everybody else than the executive.
  • Executive himself have to change, otherwise nothing changes.
  • Ineffectiveness comes from within the organization.
  • Executive is in bubble, because he is within an organization.

Don’t miss the tide – changes in the trends. These will determine your success or failure.

How should we change according to the book?

First of all the executive is expected to get the right things done. Brilliant insight is not an achievement, getting the right things done is. Effectiveness is what executives are being paid for. Without effectiveness there is no performance.

Executive is not the same thing as a leader. Only few people have the same qualities – being a leader and an executive. But the habits of effectiveness can be learned. Five essential habits are:

  1. Know Thy Time. Know where your time goes.
  2. Focus on outward contribution – results.
  3. Build on strengths.
  4. First things first. Concentrate on few major areas.
  5. Make effective decisions.

Know thy time; start with your time – not tasks, by managing your time and cut back unproductive timeconsumers, because time is the only limiting factor. Ask yourself ”What would happen if this were not done at all?”

How to prune the time-wasters:

  1. Identify time-wasters?
  2. Maybe your organization is overstaffed?
  3. Malorganization generates excess meeting?
  4. Malfunction in information?

Top management should always be asking from himself ”What Can I Contribute”. It’s his way of keeping track that he accountable for the performance of the whole. ”To focus on contribution is to focus on effectiveness.” Performance is needed in three major areas:

·      Direct results comes always first.

·      Building values and their affirmation.

·      Building and developing people for tomorrow.

Top managements contribution is needed in these areas:

·      Communications which is in the center of managerial attention.

·      Teamwork that makes things click.

·      Individual self-development.

·      Development of others.

The effective executive knows that every people-decision is a gamble and that their subordinates are not paid to please their superiors; they are paid to perform. That’s why the effective executive should concentrate on hiring people with strengths that he or his team is missing. ”One feeds the opportunities and starves the problems.” Also not to hire people on an ”undoable job”, a man killer. What is undoable job? It’s any job where two or three men is succession have been defeated although these individuals have been performing well in previous assignments. 

Staffing from strength starts by:

1.    The effective executive must make sure that the job is well-designed.

2.    Make each and every job demanding and big.

3.    Start by looking what the man can do (right people on the bus and right people on right places).

4.    Remember to put up with weaknesses.

Effectiveness is concentration, because the effective executive ”do first things first and they do one thing at a time”. Concentration is the effective executive’s ”only hope of becoming the master of time and events instead of their whipping boy.”

The effective executive always work under disagreements. It’s part of the package. Main reasons for disagreements are:

·      Without disagreements one becomes prisoner of the organization.

·      They provide alternatives.

·      It gives a possibility to ask that is the decision necessary, because it is a risk of shock.

To make decisions is the specific executive task. Right decisions will grow from the clash and conflict of different opinions and from consideration of competing alternatives. ”Yes” or ”no” decisions are not decisions. Decisions are judgements. Decisions are always a choice between ”almost right” and ”probably wrong”. The effective executive makes effective decisions via s systematic process. The elements of effective decisions are:

·      Strategic vs. generic. He has think through what is strategic and what is generic. Always assume that the problem to be solved is a generic and there is a rule how to solve it.

·      Goals; what are the objectives the decision has to reach i.e. what goals to reach. For example shall the decision increase market share.

·      Do the right thing; what is right rather than acceptable.

·      Execute; turn the decision into action.

·      Get feedback. Follow the consequences of the decision, did it reach the goals, do you have to iterate. 

What should I personally do?

Executives are not paid for doing things they like to do. They are paid for getting the right things done.

Summary

The book in six words – Don’t be a prisoner of events.

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Chip Heath & Dan Heath: Made to Stick

Chip Heath & Dan Heath: Made to Stick. Why Some Ideas Survive and Others Die.

About the book

This is a great book that keeps you hooked like any other world-class business book.

How was the actual reading of the book?

Made to Stick” is about ideas and how to design ideas. It’s a handbook of ideas. Chip and Dan Heath are showing how to design an idea that sticks. And it all starts right from the first pages when they start with a surprisingly bold story. Which will stick.

What are the key learnings of the book? 

In a nutshell Chip and Dan Heath have two solutions for designing sticky ideas – SUCCESS and repetition. There are six principles of sticky ideas or SUCCES as they call it – Simplicity, Unexpectedness, Concreteness, Credibility, Emotions and Stories. 

Simple

·      Simple includes core and compact. To make simple ideas you should formulate short sentences (compact) drawn from long experience (core).

·      Use proverbs. Proverbs offer rules of thumbs. 

·      Proverbs are helpful in guiding individual decisions in environments with shared standards.

Unexpected 

·      How to get and keep attention? Here is the formula: Identify central message + make it counterintuitive + break the guessing machine = surprise gets and interest keeps. 

·      Start by getting peoples attention. You should break a pattern.

·      Next thing you have to do is to break the guessing machine and fix it.

Concrete 

·      Concrete ideas are easy to remember.

·      Chip and Dan Heath tells a story about Boeing 727. The executives of Boeing ordered a new passenger plane and they gave very detailed specifications. It should take 131 passengers, it should fly from Miami to NYC and land into a certain LaGuardia runway. Compare these specifications to ”build us the world’s best airplane.”

·      Concreteness is a way to mobilize and focus brains. It creates a shared turf.

Credible

·      What makes people to believe? Because others believe also. We trust recommendations.

·      Don’t fight against lifetime of learnings and social relationships. There is a strong similarity to Malcolm Gladwell’s “Tipping point” book .

·      We also trust interesting details. Statistics helps people to believe.

·      A bonus thought is the testable credentials which was deployed by Ronald Regan while he was competing against Jimmy Carter. Reagan asked from the voters “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?”. Wasn’t that a sticky idea?

Emotional

·      Feelings inspires people to act. You should make people to care and act. Make association between something that people don’t care yet and something that they do care about.

·      Three strategies of making people care – using association, appealing to self-interest and appealing to identity. We create empathy, we show association to the things that people already care about and we appeal to their self-interest (and also to the people that they want to be). WIIFY – what’s in it for you?

·      Another way is to use self-interest. To make your message sticky suggest to receivers that there is something they want. WIIFY. 

·      About decision making. There are two models of making decisions. First model is calculating consequences. Second is when people make decisions based on identity.

·      Mother Teresa summarized emotions that “one individual trumps the masses.”  

Stories

·      Stories are told, because those contain wisdom. Stories are good on the mental simulation, it helps us manage emotions and most importantly it provides context. 

·      Stories illustrate casual relationships and those show ways how to solve different unexpected circumstances.  

·      Stories contains knowledge about how to act, motivation to act and putting knowledge into a framework that is true in our day-to-day life.

After SUCCES you need repetition, repetition and repetition. Tell them what you are going to tell. Tell them again. Then tell them again what you already told them.

How should we change according to the book?

For example we should start by making our strategy stick.

Why? Strategy is a guide to behavior. And a good strategy drives action. It differentiates the company and produce financial success. Those are the words of Chip and Dan Heat.

How should we make our strategy stick?

·      Firstly be concrete like the Boening executives.

·      Secondly say something unexpected like suggest that the customer service of a department store should do everything to help customer. Even by wrapping gifts from another department store.

·      Last but not least. Tell stories.  

What should I personally do? 

Start using SUCCES.

Summary

The book in six words – Stickyness adds value to ideas & beyond.

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Taleb: Skin in the Game

About the book

Aim of the book is to be practical discussions, philosophical tales and scientific and analytical commentary on the problems of randomness under uncertainty.

How was the book?

This book is for all the people who live in Ostrobothnia in Finland. All the people who thinks that ”moon oikias, soot vääräs” should read this. The Skin in the Game is a perfect book for them. Nassim Nicholas Taleb writes as everybody else would have wrong opinions. He intended the book to be an oversensitive bu***t detector. He says that the book came after a deep unplanned flirtation with mathematics. Unfortunately the first 40 pages were explanation what the book is about and how Taleb gave birth to it. For me it was a bit too much. Nevertheless I enjoyed reading the book.

What are the key learnings?

If I would have to draw a word cloud of the book it would certainly use three words – freedom, trade-offs and rationality. Putting your skin in the game you are making trade-offs with your freedom and sometimes rationality plays no role. 

Topics of the book are:

  • uncertainty and the reliability of knowledge, 
  • symmetry in human affairs, 
  • information sharing in transactions and 
  • rationality in complex systems and in the real world.

For Taleb skin in the game is about justice, honor and sacrifice. Things that that are existential for humans. Core of the book is rationality and risk bearing. Rationality resides in what you do and it is about survival. Rationality is also risk management.

 Important in the book are thinking flaws and what kind of people there are. The thinking flaws that Taleb brings up are:

  • Incapable of thinking in second steps and unawareness of the need for that
  • Incapable of distinguishing between multidimensional problems and their single-dimensional representations and
  • They can’t forecast the evolution of those one helps by attacking.

There are types of Skin In The Game people:

  • No skin in the game people are those who keeps the upside, transfers downside to others, owns a hidden option at someone’s else’s expense. For example consultants or corporate executives.
  • Skin in the game people are those who keeps his own downside, takes his or her risk. For example entrepreneurs or citizens.
  • Skin in the game of others or soul in the game are those who takes the downside on behalf of others, or for universal values. For example saints, artists, innovators, journalists who expose frauds.

Taleb’s characterization of people is so interesting that the following quote summaries his thinking. ”Beware of the person who gives advice, telling you that a certain action on your part is ”good for you” while it is also good for him, while the harm to you doesn’t directly affect him.” So there is asymmetry of advice is when it is applied to you but not him. As Romans were fully aware, one lauds merrily that merchandise to get rid of it (Horace). Advice and sales should be kept separately. But if the asymmetry or symmetry exists in sales, so how much should the salesperson tell to the buyer? Laws come and go; ethics stay.

 In the same context Taleb sees that peoples thinking and actions should go hand in hand. Those who do should talk and only those who do should talk. Things designed by people without skin in the game tend to grow in complication (before their final collapse). Like Nokia’s strategy department did. Non-skin-in-the-game people don’t get simplicity. Without skin in the game everybody is dumb. If you do not take risks for your opinion, you are nothing.

 Putin against heads of NATO countries is one example of asymmetry. Putin does not have to be re-elected and he does not have to act with the same rules. On the other hand NATO heads have to be thinking what his or hers statements means for his re-election.

 When we think about symmetries or asymmetries we must bear in mind four things:

·       Unconditional symmetry is base of democracy.

·       Symmetries between people and transaction – an eye for one eye.

·       Rhodian law – all must be made up by the contribution to all.

·       Silver rule symmetry: you can practice your freedom of religion so long as you allow me to practice mine.

Minorities are one important form of asymmetries. According to Taleb the dominance of minority has led to manifesto of dictatorship of the minority. For example halal meat or kosher drinks are more widely used than the minority. Lingua franca i.e. English is used as corporate language, because the entry-level of starting to use English is smaller than training everybody to use a new language. This is a case example of asymmetry is our time. Renormalization rule is one form that exist in the minorities’ eco-system. Renormalization means that everybody is using a minority product – lactose free dairy products, halal meat or kosher. To win the game you have to win only small proportion of users and you will get the vast majority as well. Sound, but controversial thinking and maybe a solid marketing strategy.

How minorities rule and make change happen? Societies evolve when few courageous people want to move the needle. ”All one needs is an asymmetric rule somewhere and someone with soul in the game.” Or as Alexander the Great has legendry said – ”I am not afraid of an army of lions led by a sheep; I am afraid of an army of sheep led by a lion.” Meaning that there is a value for active, intolerant and courageous minority. That is short, but elegant summary How Taleb sees people. 

Taleb spends few pages around a concept what he calls ”Intellectual Yet Idiot”. Taleb is suggesting that for example Richard Thaler is a intellectual yet idiot, because of his nudge theory. Btw what is IYI? According to Taleb it is ”one IVY league degree one vote” against one man one vote. Anyways Talebs critic might be in place, but having read The Nudge book I would argue that Taleb and Thaler have different motives. Thaler want’s to help us making positive action. Taleb want’s to grow the readers to become non-traditional thinkers and finding new perspectives. Strategy vs. execution?

Thomas Piketty and his books gets also his share of the IYI analysis. Piketty’s analysis is also seen flawed, because inequality works the other way around according to Taleb. He sees that year to year changes does not happen in the knowledge economy and the people belonging to the ne percent do not change. So the winner takes it all and Piketty does not understand that. According to Taleb. And maybe he is right. The one percent has different tools to protect their wealth than the blue collar workers have in order to accumulate his wealth. 

Taleb is also playing the violin of change in our globalized society. He points out that currently we are witnessing Uberization, birth of city-states and Black Swans. Uberized is a process of being disintermediated. City-states are growing and it will give birth of new governance. What has survived has revealed its robustness to Black Swan events and removing skin in the game disrupts such selection mechanism.

How should we change according to the book?

Why Romans had a slave as a treasurer? Because the laws for a freeman were different compared to a slave. The slave had more skin in the game. Taleb didn’t write this as self-help book, but I think that we can learn from these great ideas that he has. Concept of freedom, risk taking, envy and income mobility might be one of the ideas that might help us change.

Today the best slaves are those who you overpay and the modern slave knows that. For example expat strategy. Even extreme freedom is not freedom, because there lies also a risk. Employees are reliable by design, but you should not trust their ability to make hard decisions, because they are afraid of the risks. For example the tale by Aesop where the ass don’t want the collar of the dog although it gets all the meals. Eventually the free ass was eaten up by a lion. That is real skin in the game. Freedom is never free and life is full of trade-offs.

Salesperson and traders are manageable only when they are not profitable, in which case they were not wanted. When people turn into profit-centers, then no other criterion matters. And then people might turn into wolves again. Or risk takers which can lead that they are also socially unpredictable people. One way to show your freedom is to curse – for example in Twitter. That way you show that they are also competent which is a low-risk strategy to show off. ”Risk takers take risks because it is in their nature to be wild animals.” 

Few notions about work and businesses. Why firms exist? Because it’s too costly to negotiate every transaction and that’s why companies hire employees (like for example The Oktoberfest dilemma). ”What matters isn’t what a person has or doesn’t have; it is what he or she is afraid of losing.” The more you have to lose, the more fragile you are. So lovers of paycheck (employees) have significant skin in the game – their dependability and they have a reputation to protect. How to become financially secure? It’s not about means – it’s about lack of wants. ”F*** your money.”

Envy does not travel long distance or cross many social classes. Envy is apparently being upset that ”less smart” persons are much richer. Typically people envy people how are in the same level. Not the super-rich class. Envy you are more likely to encounter in you kin (Aristotle). So that’s why cobbler envys cobbler.

About income mobility Taleb has made interesting observation. Americans are far better well of than Europeans. American equality is that 10% of Americans will spend at least a year in the top 1 percent, and more than half of all American will spend a year in the top 10 %. But for example 60 % n the French list are heirs and third of the richest Europeans were the richest centuries ago. Make the rich rotate by forcing the rich to be subjected to the risk of exiting from the one percent? Are there mechanisms that is protecting the 1 %? Anyways this tells a bit different story about European and American income mobility.

Taleb’s book is flooding with quotations. Here is a small collection of those:

·       How to find hidden vulnerabilities – ask me why I don’t have a statue rather than why do you have one?

·       You can’t chew with somebody else’s teeth.

·       A bird in the hand is better than ten on the tree.

·       Madness is rare on individuals, but in groups, parties, nations, it is the rule. (Friedrich Nietzsche).

·       Action without talk supersedes talk without action.

What should I personally do?

Ultimate is when you have your skin and soul in the game.

Summary

The book in six words – ”Success is leading a honorable life”

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Doz & Wilson: Ringtone

About the book

The book by Yves L. Doz and Keeley Wilson is like a detective story. You know what will happen at the end of the story, but you don’t know where exactly did the crime happen.  

I served the mobile communications industry for 12 years and that’s why the ”Ringtone” book is very interesting piece of analysis to me. It’s like an analytical continuum for books such as ”Good to Great” or ”Leading Change”. I can remember great many historical dates and activities that this analysis presents.

How was the book?

In the case on Nokia and it’s mobile phone business we typically analyze the reasons for failure. But in this analysis there is also presented the reasons for the high-growth of the mobile phone business within Nokia. Somehow it is actually more interesting than the failure of the mobile phone business in Nokia. Wouldn’t you like to learn how to grow businesses more than how administer failure.

What are the key learnings?

I remember when I joined Nokia and the CEO of the company was Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo. One of the most impressing moments was when I heard mr. Kallasvuo to end one of his speeches stating that ”Internet is our quest”. Well said, but it was not only our quest, but it was also our destiny.

Nokia didn’t go from good to great. It went slowly from great to bad and then to worse. The old Nokia was once hit by the Schumpetrian creative destruction and it happened long before the mobile era. So actually Nokia has in it’s 153 years of history met disruption at least twice. And survived from both occasions.

According to Doz and Wilson the reasons for success of the mobile phone business in Nokia were:

·       Porter’s theory of competitiveness of nations is one explanation why Nokia and Finland was struck with the phenomenal success.

·       Planetary alignment i.e. good luck.

·       And fragmented and localized structure on Finnish telecoms market.

I think that Nokia was lucky when it got involved in the development work of NMT and later in the development work of GSM specifications. For example roaming was invented in the NMT standardization process and it led to the service development of other complimentary services than voice calls. GSM Standard in was a great business plan for companies that were hungry enough to execute. Nokia with it’s greenfield operator customers were more hungry than the incumbent state owned telecom operators. Radiolinja was one of the hungry customers and so it became the first customer of Nokia for a digital network.

According to Doz and Wilson the reasons for failure were:

·       It was unavoidable a la Schumpeter.

·       Organizational evolution and adaptation gone astray.

·       Failure of management volition.

There is no single decision that explains the failure of Nokia Mobile Phones. It was merely mixture of different and multiple decisions that lead to prolonged deterioration of the mobile phone business. Nokia was declining way before the arrival of new competitors such as Android and iPhone. These competitors were in platform business, but Nokia was still in hardware business. Nokia was caught up with the ”Red Queen” effect. The Red Queen explained that ”My dear, here we must run as fast as we can, just to stay in place. And if you wish to go anywhere you must run twice as fast as that.” Maybe Nokians should have also tried to learn to run other routes. And smarter?

What could have Nokia done differently in order to save it’s mobile phone business?

·       Create and stick with a software-first vision.

·       They should have create a strategy how to compete against Internet companies.

·       Develop proprietary operating system for Nokia.

·       Nokia didn’t have a theory how succeed.  

·       Integrate interdependent decisions.

·       Behave disciplined as the Good to Great companies did.

At the end of the book Doz and Wilson offers some factors that might have saved mobile phones businesss from total destruction:

·       Nokia kept doing the same thing for too long.

·       The innovation center should have been established much earlier to California.

·       MeeGo should have been developed much earlier and in faster pace.

There is also exhaustive list of management lessons which are by far the best outcomes of the research and analysis. My favorite findings are:

·       Success begets failure.

·       Success also breeds conservatism.

·       A new reality of different nature calls for a new strategy-making paradigm.

How should we change according to the book?

As mentioned this book is like a detective story and you don’t know when or where does the crime take in place. Bearing in mind that ”Nokia’s success in mobile phones was neither the fruit of a repeatable recipe, nor an accident”. Due to that reason the Ringtone is somehow a dull book to read, because I was certain that the research team would have found a repeatable recipe.

But we can learn from the book a great deal:

·       We should invest into the future megatrends.

o  As long as GSM specifications was the business plan everything was well. When they had to become a software-first company, the hardware-first attitude overruled the need for change.

·       Never forget your customer.

o  Time consumed in committees was away from the customer centric work. Key driver in change is that change management must never forget the customer.

·       Organizational changes need presence of management

o  Matrix organization and it’s barons turned against each other. They had to compete from the same resources and the leadership team failed to guide these teams. ”Organizations structures do not fail; management fails at implementing them” (Jay Galbraith).

The idea of matrix organization was sensible for Nokia, but it was poorly implemented. Matrix organization is not a dead end, but there are three ways to run a matrix:

·       arbitration,

·       negotiation,

·       decentralization & delegation.

Because Finns have a strong tendency towards consensus Doz and Wilson suggests that in Finnish matrix organizations there should be clear and speedy rules for decision making

Matrix organization managers needs different set of business skills. For example when matrix leaders pushback decisions to managers he needs:

·       collaborative skills,

·       a careful balance of collective interest and self-interest and

·       structural context to match.

What should I personally do?

Read Gary Hamel’s book called ”Competing for the future”.

Summary

The book in six words – ”Lieutenants should not turn into barons” (Jorma Ollila)

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Esko Valtaoja: Avoin tie – kurkistus tulevaisuuteen

Kirjasta

Esko Valtaoja on Suomen nyky-tiedeyhteisön kruunaamaton valtias. Ei viikkoa etteikö Valtaoja olisi julkisuudessa. Se jopa saattaa nostaa mielenkiintoa kirjaa kohtaan. Universaalista aiheesta huolimatta Valtaojan teos on lukemisen arvoinen eikä sekään vähennä mielenkiintoa, että teos on vuodelta 2004.

Minkälainen kirja oli?

Lukukokemus on humoristinen ja paikoitellen henkilökohtainen, mutta pääsääntöisesti hyvin ajateltuja ja syvällisiä ajatuksia sisältävä teos. Valtaoja on kirjoittanut näkemyksensä optimismista ja tulevaisuudesta. Siinä on kirjan tarkoitus. Juuri edellä mainituista syistä kirja on sekä nautinnollinen ajatuksia herättävä lukukokemus että havahduttava kokoelma tosiasioita. Valtaojalla on paljon ihmiseen ja ihmisyyteen liittyviä havaintoja. Ei hän ehkä yllä Daniel Kahnemanin ”Thinking, fast and slow”-kirjan tasolle, mutta kauas ei jää kotimaisena kilpailijana.   

Valtaojan humoristisuutta kuvaa tarina Kolumbuksesta ja kuunpimennyksestä. Kolumbus tarvitsi vastentahtoisten intiaanien apua ja hankki sitä almanakan avulla. Kolumbuksen idea oli, että uskotteli intiaanit luulemaan, että hän pystyi ”jumaliensa” avulla aikaansaamaan kuunpimennyksen. Almanakan avulla hän tiesi kuunpimennyksen tulevan ja sitä tietoa hyödyntäen intiaanit saatiin yhteistyökykyisiksi. Toisessa Valtaojan tarinassa sama temppu ei toiminut Uuden-Guinean viidakon asukkeihin vuonna 1928. Huijauksen kohteena ollut heimopäällikkö tiesi kuunpimennyksen poistuvan yhtä varmasti kuin se saapui. Tämän lähemmäksi – näitä esimerkkejä lukuun ottamatta, ei Valtaojan kirjassa päästä tulevaisuuden ennustamista. Jos olet kiinnostunut arvioimaan mitä tulevaisuus voi tuoda tullessaan ja haluat lukea aiheesta suomalaista kirjallisuutta, niin Avoin tie kannattaa lukea. Kuten monet tulevaisuutta käsittelevät kirjat – Valtaojankaan, eivät kerro mitä tulevaisuus tuo tullessaan. Ne kertovat enemmän viitteitä siitä mihin tulevaisuus voisi rakentua. Omalla tavallaan Avoin tie muistuttaa paljon Hararin uusinta Homo Deus-kirjaa.

Mitkä ovat kirjan keskeiset ideat? 

Sotahistorioitsijat tietävät, että tasaväkisen taistelun ratkaisee se kumpi puoli jaksaa uskoa voiton mahdollisuuteen. Niin se on myös tulevaisuuteen liittyen. Me jotka olemme kehitysoptimisteja, niin näemme tulevaisuudessa enemmän voittoja kuin häviöitä. Valtaojan sanoin ”pessimismi luo avuttomuutta”.

Toiseksi hän uskoo, että tulevaisuus on aina nykyhetken rappiota. Vertauskuvat Valtaoja löytää niin mongolien verisistä valloitusretkistä sekä niiden tuomista reittien aukeamisista idän ja lännen välille. Tai natsien tuhoamasta Euroopasta, jonka tuloksena elämme nykyisyyttä. Leninin mukaan ”omelettia ei voi tehdä rikkomatta munia”, vaikka hänen johdollaan rikottiin paljon munia ilman, että sitä omelettia syntyi.

Thomas Moren utopia on paikka ei missään. Ja utopisti haluaa aina painaa jarrua. Vastustaa edistystä, joka ei vie muutosta utopiaan. Optimisti on se, joka jaksaa taistella vielä silloinkin, kun toiset ovat luovuttaneet. Kolmas porukka, johon Valtaoja ottaa kantaa ovat anarkistit – hallittujen ja hallitsijoiden väliseen ristiriitaan, sillä he haluavat tehdä niin kuin itse haluavat. Meidän aikaamme johtaa runsauden anarkia, joka näkyy mm. internetissä missä kaikkea on kaikille, liikaa. Suomalainen mökkielämä on anarkismia parhaimmillaan, siellä saat tehdä miten haluat. Ei silti tarvitse tyytyä demokratiaan, jossa pitää tehdä kuten toiset haluavat. ”No man is an island” (John Donne)”.

Uutuus kun vaikuttaa ihmiseen ja ympäristöön, niin tapahtuu muutoksia. Hän luettelee hengästyttävästi tapahtumia ja teknologioita, joiden vaikutus tulevaisuuteen voi olla arvaamaton. Kännykät. Sivilisaation uudet keskukset. Ihmisruumis voidaan erottaa aivoista. Geenimuunneltu ruoka. Fuusiovoimala ITER. Näitä kaikkia edellä mainittuja me koemme ja näemme ympärillämme, mutta osaammeko erottaa niiden tuomat tulevaisuuden teoreettiset vaarat ja saadut hyödyt. Vaaroiksi voidaan mainita esim. Mooren laki, joka sitten muuten ei ole laki vaan havainto. Mooren laki saattaa ennustaa jotain, mutta ei takaa fysiikan lainomaisesti varmuutta tulevaisuudesta.

Aivojen käyttäminen on tärkeä kehittymisen edellytys – ”use it or lose it*. Ehkä juuri siksi oppiminen ja ikääntyminen on Valtaojalle tärkeää. Hän näkee korrelaation iän, oppimisen ja ymmärtämisen välillä. Niiden yhdistelmä – hänen mielestään, johtaa vääjäämättä sivistyneisyyteen, kuten myös monen meidän muun mielestä. Tulevaisuuden rakentamisessa olisi hyvä huomioida edellä mainittu sekä ymmärrys ihmisen pohjautuvan apinaan. Inhimillinen kulttuuri on aivojemme saavutuksia, joka erottaa meidät apinoista ja luo pohjan ihmisyydelle. Valtaoja haluaa, että ymmärrämme eläimellisyytemme, joka voi johtaa kaikkien sotaan kaikkia vastaan.

Valtaoja luettelee myös muita tekijöitä mitkä erottavat meidät apinoista:

1.    kyky sympatiaan ja empatiaan,

2.    arvot ja järjestys,

3.    vastavuoroisuus,

4.    kyky tulla toimeen,

5.    mukautumiskyky ja

6.    älykkyys sekä kyky rationaaliseen toimintaan.

Valtaoja nostaa esille myös perspektiivin käsitteenä. Todennäköisesti me emme edes osaa katsoa tulevaisuuteen, koska pörssianalyytikon näkyvyys on kvartaali ja ihmisen oma näkyvyys on korkeintaan omiin lapsenlapsiinsa. Siihen kun vielä lisätään Teilhardin emergenssi – ennalta aavistamaton, niin ihmisen kyky ennustaa tulevaisuuteen on todennäköisesti olematon. Mutta vain ihminen voi jatkaa evoluutiota. Otetaan esimerkiksi lentäminen. Kului kolme vuosikymmentä Wrigthin veljeksien keksinnöstä ensimmäiseen suihkukoneeseen. Siitä kolme vuosikymmentä ensimmäiseen kuulentoon. Mitä seuraavan kolmen vuosikymmenen jälkeen? Avoin tie johtaa kaikkialle, mutta ei minnekään ilman ihmistä.

Mitä meidän pitäisi tehdä kirjan perusteella?

Valtaoja haukkuu status quota ”himmeäksi ideaksi”. Se on ihmiskunnan kohtalokkain aate. Kirja toivoo – suorastaan vaatii, jokaista meistä muuttamaan sekä muuttumaan. Vaikka henkisesti kaipaamme status quota, niin todellisuudessa emme sitä tarvitse. Muutos on ainoa asia mitä tarvitsemme.  

Mitä minun pitäisi itse tehdä? 

Estää himmeän idean mukanaan tuomaa pysyvää olotilaa.

Yhteenveto

Kirja kuudella sanalla – ”Me kylvämme (itse) oman tulevaisuutemme siemenet”.